Emmy Experts Typing: How will Season 3 of ‘The Bear’ impact its Season 2 chances?

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, with the third season of “The Bear” out, we look at comedy.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! Or should I type, yes, chef! “The Bear” has returned for its third season, and while these new episodes and guest stars won’t be eligible for Emmy consideration until next year, we all know how important it has become for ongoing series to debut fresh material during the current Emmy race. Last year, “The Bear” dropped Season 2 during Emmy nominations voting and only a fool would argue it didn’t impact the Season 1 nominations and subsequent wins. (“Forks” was Ebon Moss-Bacharch’s “Rainbow,” as you astutely noted this time last year, and — lo and behold — Moss-Bachrach won an Emmy just like Brett Goldstein.) This year, the nominations are already locked even if we won’t know the results for another few weeks, so some standout Season 3 episodes focused on Liza Colón-Zayas and Abby Elliott won’t help or hurt their nomination chances. Besides, we had them both in any way and several “Bear” fellas as well, including Matty Matheson. But as we discussed this week with our voices, it feels all but inevitable that Season 3 will go through the Backlash Cycle regardless of its actual quality — there are some notable negative reviews out there that feel like they were written before the episodes even dropped, and I’ve heard anecdotal tale from more than one person about how the Season 3 premiere left normies ice cold. Will that matter when the Emmys announce the 2024 winners in September? As we saw with “Ted Lasso” Season 2, a dip from “Ted Lasso” Season 1, voters don’t always care. So it would be hard for me to imagine a scenario where “The Bear” doesn’t go all the way again in the comedy categories, even if I think its 2025 prospects are more bearish than many might have anticipated. If voters do tire of Carmy & Co., we know a great alternative exists — an actual comedy in terms of its laughs-per-minute ratio. I’m typing, obviously, about our beloved “Hacks.” But even as a member of its stan club, I can’t really envision a scenario where the third and best season of the best (and last?) Max comedy finally wins the big prize. What do you think, Joyce? Will the forthcoming Season 3 discourse have an impact on Phase 2 of this race?

joyceeng: Having completed Season 3 of “The Bear,” I think it’s still a good show in general, but while there are a lot of great individual aspects in Season 3, this is its weakest installment. It just feels meandering and less cohesive. The premiere was designed to be polarizing and I, too, have heard from multiple normies who were not into it. My friend texted me Wednesday night after watching the premiere and called it “nice” but “pretentious and masturbatory.” On the other end, as expected, Film Twitter of TV is all over the introspective, auteur-y opener. The overall response to the season is mixed but leans positive and I don’t expect the show’s Emmy hopes to be derailed. It’s technically competing for Season 2, so you can argue that Season 3’s less effusive reception shouldn’t affect it, even though we all know that’s not how it works. This isn’t a vacuum. But as we’ve discussed before, “The Bear,” regardless of Season 3’s acclaim or quality — again, the season is not a disaster — can eke out another win just based on momentum, hype and goodwill. It feels Too Big to Fail right now. Next year? Maybe not, especially if it underperforms at the winter awards. Its fourth season will probably drop this time next year to boost its Season 3 candidacy. “Hacks” is starting production on its fourth season in the fall, so it can return in its usual May slot. Can it improve on its first-class third season? That would make for an intriguing matchup (assuming no new comedy breaks out). But I’m getting ahead of myself. While I think “The Bear” will still win series this year, the softer appraisal of Season 3 might give “Hacks” the edge in the actress categories. I’ve had Jean Smart and Hannah Einbinder in first before I even saw Season 3 of “Hacks.” I felt great about having them there after watching it, and now after “The Bear” Season 3, I still feel good with them on top. Not that it matters, but Ayo Edebiri felt more supporting in Season 3. LCZ and Elliott were excellent in their showcase episodes, but I didn’t really leave “Napkins” or “Ice Chips” feeling like I did about EMB and “Forks.” And maybe both supporting “Bear” ladies being given a go-to Emmy tape will cancel each other out for Einbinder to prevail?

SEE Experts slugfest: Anonymous Emmy ballots revealed and Phase 1 campaign winners

Christopher Rosen: It’s kind of funny that “The Bear” dropped Season 3 after voting closed. FX is so rightfully confident in its bona fides that it didn’t even need these episodes to secure nominations for Colón-Zayas and Elliott. But I, too, don’t think either would topple Einbinder — although I think if someone does, it’ll be Colón-Zayas. Smart feels more secure. She only didn’t win an Emmy last year/this year because she wasn’t eligible. I see no reason for her to fall behind Edebiri now, even if Edebiri is still undefeated in the public square. While we’re typing about third seasons, I would be remiss to not mention “Abbott Elementary,” which — like “Hacks” — enjoyed its best episodes yet in Season 3. Emmy voters have never warmed to the show as much as its fans would hope, but what if this is a breakthrough moment for its cast too? I continue to toy with the notion of Lisa Ann Walter making it into the supporting race alongside Sheryl Lee Ralph and Janelle James — an outcome were it to happen that would likely leave Meryl Streep on the outside looking in. If not Walter, I could see Meg Stalter or Molly Gordon getting in there too as a coattail nominee from a beloved show. Do you think “Abbott” has room to grow with voters or is it destined to remain in the “liked, not loved” category?

joyceeng: Like we said the other day, it really sucks that the forces are conspiring against LAW. The comedy supporting categories have lost a slot every year since “Abbott’s” maiden Emmy season in 2022. And even though her “Abbott” co-stars are the only 2023 nominees in the running in the category this year, it’s still crowded because Einbinder is returning, “The Bear” is looking to field at least two prospects, and there’s the Meryl Streep of it all. You floated the idea of James missing for Walter, and while that sounds wild, I don’t know if it’s any crazier than “Abbott” taking up half the category when it failed to enjoy a sophomore bump in noms last year and is third at best in the series race. It’s a different category and different branch voting, but “Abbott” also fell out of writing last year as the reigning champ. It ought to return this year with so many open slots (and “The Bear” and “Hacks” submitting just one episode each, just like “Abbott” did), but what if it doesn’t? “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” was never nominated for writing again after winning for its pilot.

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Christopher Rosen: I feel like I can make a new supporting actress list every night like Carmy’s menu. Fortunately, supporting actor is much easier to suss out — particularly since we’ve never had Paul Rudd. I guess we should end by doubling back to Best Comedy Actress. Jean, Ayo and Quinta Brunson are all good. We’ve got Maya Rudolph and then… the people want Selena Gomez. I’m easily swayed but I don’t know if I can go back to her again. Would you be shocked if she landed a nomination this year? Should I just predict her?

joyceeng: Give the state of the field, this is obviously Gomez’s best chance of getting in — I’ve explained how she could pull a Mandy Moore — but I’m not sure if she will. At the same time, are we banking on Apple to capture two, essentially, filler slots with Rudolph and Kristen Wiig, who are on two low-key shows? They have the Emmy résumés that Gomez lacks, but Gomez has the stronger show and might just need the category to open up. So, I guess, don’t lose hope, Selenators.

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