NHL draft debate: Maybe the Chicago Blackhawks’ choice at No. 2 isn’t the toss-up everyone thinks
For weeks, the Chicago Blackhawks’ options with the No. 2 pick in Friday’s NHL draft have appeared to be an either-or proposition: Russian junior league forward Ivan Demidov or Michigan State defenseman Artyom Levshunov.
But is it?
One draft pundit and former NHL scout contends the two aren’t as closely matched as consensus opinion would have us believe.
Grant McCagg, founder of scouting site Recrutes.ca and a former scout for the Montreal Canadiens, called Demidov “a can’t-miss.”
“There’s things I don’t like about Levshunov’s game — and I’m not alone,” McCagg said. “These public lists that have him top-three, none of the NHL scouts that I talked to — none, and I mean there’s probably a half-dozen that I talked to pretty regularly — none of them like him top-five.”
Several recent mock drafts pegged Levshunov as the No. 2 pick by the Hawks. NHL Central Scouting ranks him second among North American skaters behind Boston University forward Macklin Celebrini, calling Levshunov “a smooth-skating defenseman with high-end puck skills.”
“(He) uses his size, strength and reach as assets to effectively defend in the defensive zone and has a good grasp of positioning and coverage,” the Central Scouting report says. “Good shot control with a hard and accurate shot that makes him a legit scoring threat from the blue line. Good two-way game.”
Dan Marr, vice president of Central Scouting, told the Tribune in May, “I’d say he’s a complete (player), more of an all-around,” but acknowledged that for his staff, ”it was hard for us to sort out the defensemen.”
To that point, McCagg said, “Out of the six defensemen that are highly ranked, I think all of (the scouts he talked to), except maybe one, have him tagged as like the fifth- or sixth-best defenseman in this draft class. So why would you take the fifth- or sixth-best defenseman in the draft class second overall?”
After posting nine goals and 26 assists for the Spartans last season, Levshunov was named a second-team All-American by the American Hockey Coaches Association and earned Big Ten honors as defensive player and freshman of the year.
But McCagg believes a good system at Michigan State masked some of Levshunov’s warts.
“When he played against higher competition and was pressured in his own zone particularly, he was prone to turnovers,” McCagg said. “He jumps into the play at inopportune times.”
McCagg noted one play in which Levshunov’s defensive partner was swarmed by opposing skaters and Levshunov was “up at the friggin’ red line, and the other team scored and tied the game.”
“There were examples of that throughout the year where he thinks offense first — and he’s a defenseman,” McCagg said. “It’s often hard to break them of that habit because it can take years sometimes.
“I’ve still got him in my top 12 (overall), so it’s not like I completely hate him. He’s going to play in your top four and be a longtime NHL defenseman. But you have a chance to take what I think could be the next Pavel Bure instead (in Demidov). There’s no comparison for me.”
McCagg doubled down.
“I don’t see how Chicago can pass on Demidov,” he said. “I think he’s their dynamic duo (along with Connor Bedard) that they had with (Jonathan) Toews and (Patrick) Kane. Bedard and Demidov are the next incarnation.”
Curiously, Demidov’s draft stock appeared to be slipping in recent days.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said on his “32 Thoughts” podcast that he heard one team has been spreading rumors to drag down Demidov’s stock to have a shot at drafting him.
First, the 18-year-old was called a bit undersized at 5-foot-11, and another knock was that he played most of the season in the Kontinental Hockey League’s junior league, the MHL.
Asked whether he was worried the latter fact might depress Demidov’s stock, Dan Milstein, the agent for both Demidov and Levshunov, told the Tribune, “No, absolutely not.”
Added McCagg: “And then when (Demidov) shows up at the combine (that Milstein held in Florida last week) and he’s not 5-11 — he’s actually 6 foot and a half-inch and close to 200 pounds — the knock that he’s a little undersized was incorrect.”
McCagg said SKA St. Petersburg coach Roman Rotenberg’s reluctance to play 17- or 18-year-olds in the senior league shouldn’t be held against Demidov.
“I thought he may have been SKA’s best player in the exhibition season,” he said. “I don’t really see a lot of knocks on Demidov. … He’s a very competitive player. He cares away from the puck. He works hard. I think (Hawks coach) Luke (Richardson) is going to like him from Day 1.”
Demidov’s defense impresses just as much, if not more.
“He’s just so strong on his skates,” McCagg said. “He was on the ice for 0.28 goals-against per game. … I’ve never seen a mark that low. Ever.”
In Recrutes’ rankings, McCagg has Demidov second behind Celebrini with Levshunov at No. 11. In fact, he regards the University of Denver’s Zeev Buium as the top defenseman (and fifth overall).
“Buium was a lot better than (Levshunov) last year as a freshman in college hockey,” said McCagg, who said he wouldn’t be shocked if Levshunov slightly tumbled down the board.
Prospects often are highly rated early in the draft process before teams take a closer look at the tape.
In other words: Read predictions with caution.
“The public perception of how the draft’s going to go and what the NHL teams are thinking can be completely different sometimes,” McCagg said. “That’s part of the fun of it because it’s so unpredictable.”