Can the Biden presidency survive a Hunter pardon? 

For those who have been avoiding the news, Hunter Biden, the son of President Joe Biden, is facing a high-stakes federal trial that began last Monday in Wilmington, Del. The trial centers around three felony charges related to a gun he purchased in 2018.  

Two of the charges accuse Hunter Biden of making false statements on the paperwork required to acquire the firearm, a Colt revolver. He allegedly denied being an unlawful user of or addicted to controlled substances, despite evidence suggesting he was actively using drugs like crack cocaine at the time. The third charge alleges that he unlawfully possessed the gun for 11 days after the purchase; federal law prohibits drug users or addicts from possessing firearms. 

The trial is inextricably bound to politics, particularly November’s presidential election, and the most pressing political issue is timing — something which should now be familiar to Americans, given other very recent politically charged trials. Were President Biden to pardon his son, which would clear Hunter Biden's criminal record related to this case, it would surely spell doom for his campaign.  

In an era where almost nothing seems to cross the line into the politically untenable, this is it. 

The crux of the case revolves around whether Hunter Biden knowingly made false statements and whether he was indeed an unlawful drug user or addict when he acquired and possessed the firearm.  

Prosecutors have been presenting evidence such as photographs, text messages and excerpts from his memoir detailing his drug use and addiction during that period. Key witnesses include Hunter’s ex-wife, Kathleen Buhle, and other former romantic partners. If convicted on all charges, Hunter Biden faces a maximum sentence of 25 years in prison, though he would likely receive a lesser sentence as a first-time offender.  

Assuming arguendo that Hunter Biden is found guilty of felonies in this case, we are sure to see as many appeals on the case as possible. Given that the venue for this case is the federal district court in Wilmington, the first level of appeal would be to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit — the same Third Circuit that has already denied Hunter Biden's request to postpone the trial and his bid to overturn U.S. District Judge Maryellen Noreika’s rejection of motions to dismiss the case. If the conviction is upheld, Hunter Biden would be required to surrender to the Bureau of Prisons to serve the sentence imposed by Judge Noreika, which could include incarceration, probation, fines or other conditions. 

Ultimately, President Biden has the constitutional power to pardon his son if convicted, as these are federal charges. Back in December, the White House stated that the president would not pardon Hunter if found guilty. Joe Biden reasserted this message on Thursday in an exclusive interview with ABC News. But the question of whether a pardon is forthcoming remains. 

The psychological impact of Biden the elder knowing that his son is in a Delaware court every day with the distinct possibility of prison time is more than enough to shift the pardon paradigm. Having witnessed and endured everything Hunter Biden has been through — the loss of his biological mother to an accident that also killed his baby sister, his drug addiction, the untimely death of his brother Beau to cancer, and much more — the jolt of a legal conviction might jolt President Biden’s moral conviction. Any parent would understand.  

Given that Republicans have long sought to leverage Hunter Biden's legal troubles and business dealings to undermine his father politically, these proceedings promise to not only shed light on deeply personal and tumultuous moments in the Biden family's history, but to determine the family’s political fate. Whether political expediency or paternal instinct wins out will be for history to decide; what is certain is that the end result will carry massive political implications.  

Aron Solomon, JD, is the chief strategy officer for Amplify. He has taught entrepreneurship at McGill University and the University of Pennsylvania, and was elected to Fastcase 50, recognizing the top 50 legal innovators in the world.