Golden Globes will set up Oscars Best Actress battle: Emma Stone vs. Lily Gladstone
Golden Globe nominations will be announced on December 11, and because they divide their film awards into drama and comedy/musical categories they often set up the duels that define the Oscar race. That could be the case for Best Actress this year, where the top two contenders in our Oscar odds — Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) and Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) — are both tipped to win Globes.
Stone is the current front-runner to win the Oscar, and she’s the favorite at the Globes in the same category she won in the run-up to her last Best Actress Oscar: Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress. She claimed that prize for “La La Land” and now she’s the heavy favorite for “Poor Things,” where she plays a young woman on a journey of self-discovery after being resurrected by an eccentric scientist. Her performance is backed by 12 out of 16 Expert journalists we’ve surveyed, as well as all of our Editors, 22 of our Top 24 Users and 20 of our All-Star Top 24.
Since “Poor Things” is a comedy, the door is open in the drama race for Gladstone to collect a trophy of her own for her portrayal of an Osage woman whose family and fellow tribe members are targeted for their wealth by malicious white settlers. Though ranked second in our Oscar odds, she ranks first in our Globe forecasts for Best Film Drama Actress. She’s not a shoo-in, though. She faces a tough challenge from Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”). As of this writing nine Experts predict Gladstone while seven back Mulligan. But Mulligan has the edge according to five Editors, compared to just three predicting Gladstone. Of our Top 24, Gladstone is predicted by 14 and Mulligan by five. And out of our All-Stars, 12 say Gladstone and six say Mulligan.
We’ve seen the Globes preview close Oscar rivalries before. Consider Gwyneth Paltrow (“Shakespeare in Love”) vs. Cate Blanchett (“Elizabeth”) in 1998 — both won Globes, Paltrow claimed the Oscar. In 2005 Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line”) and Felicity Huffman (“Transamerica”) won Globes, and Witherspoon ended up with the Oscar. In 2012 Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”) and Jessica Chastain (“Zero Dark Thirty”) claimed Globes, and Lawrence took the Oscar. In 2018’s particularly suspenseful contest, Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) and Glenn Close (“The Wife”) won Globes, and Close was widely predicted to win the Oscar, but Colman pulled off a stunning upset at the main event. And in 2022 we saw Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) and Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) were the Globe champs, and Yeoh won the Oscar.
Notice a pattern there? In all of the aforementioned tight races, the Oscar ended up going to the actress who won the musical/comedy Globe. A good sign for Stone?
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