Poll shows Trump beating Biden in the electoral college but losing the popular vote in 2024 race

• Stack Data Strategy surveyed 15,000 voters to learn more about the possible 2024 election results.
• The results? Trump defeats Biden after flipping four states.
• Biden, however, still wins the popular vote in the poll.

New polling predicts former President Donald Trump will lose the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election to President Joe Biden but win the electoral college by a significant margin.

Between mid-August to the beginning of November, Stack Data Strategy interviewed more than 15,000 registered US voters in order to forecast the upcoming election. The pollster said it used a "quotas" system to ensure its data "is representative of US adults, including these 'hard-to-reach' but electorally crucial sub-groups."

The results, released on Monday, show Trump flipping four states in 2024 that were crucial to Biden's 2020 victory: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The four states ultimately equate to 56 electoral votes, more than enough to push Trump over the 270 mark to win back the White House.

If Stack Data Strategy's predictions are accurate, the election would mark the third time since 2000 that a president won the election without winning the popular vote, a feat accomplished in recent decades only by former President George W. Bush and Trump in 2016.

Separately, the pollster also accounted for the impact made by independent candidates in the race. The group predicts that the impact to be relatively minor, only helping Trump narrowly flip Nevada (in addition to the aforementioned states) after Robert F. Kennedy and Cornel West siphon off more than 8% of the final vote in the state.

Though Trump is currently leading the GOP race in the polls by a large margin, he's currently embroiled in a series of indictments from grand juries across the country that charged him with 91 felonies.

In the event that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis receives the nomination, the pollster predicts he will get trounced by Biden by a margin of 180 electoral votes. DeSantis is currently polling in second place in an average of national polls, though he's trailing Trump by 42.5 percentage points.

Stack Data Strategy's report may not come as too much of a surprise to Biden and his campaign. Despite several Democratic candidates and the party's supported referendums declaring victory last week by large margins, Biden has been unable to distance himself from Trump in national poll after national poll.