Elon Musk's grim warning about house prices is wrong - and they'll soar 20% when interest rates drop, 'Shark Tank' investor Barbara Corcoran says

• Barbara Corcoran says Elon Musk is wrong to predict US house prices will plummet.
• The "Shark Tank" star and real estate guru expects home values to soar 20% once interest rates drop.
• Corcoran isn't worried about housing bubbles, but has grave concerns about commercial real estate.

Barbara Corcoran has brushed off Elon Musk's dramatic warning about house prices, and predicted they will rocket upward once interest rates fall.

The "Shark Tank" investor and real estate tycoon also dismissed concerns about housing bubbles in the hottest US markets, and sounded the alarm on commercial real estate and regional banks, during a Fox Business interview on Thursday.

"Of course he's wrong yet again," Corcoran said about the Tesla and SpaceX CEO's forecast of a collapse in home values. "But he's cocky and sometimes that counts for more."

Mortgage rates have soared from about 3% at the start of 2022 to around 7% today. They've spiked because the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates from virtually zero to upwards of 5% since last spring in a bid to curb historic inflation.

The upshot is there's now a "Mexican standoff" between people who want to sell their homes but don't want to give up their cheap, fixed-rate mortgages, and buyers who are loath to settle for a far worse home than they could afford a couple years ago, Corcoran said.

That bottleneck is propping up prices, and once rates go down by two percentage points, the resulting buying frenzy could send home values up 20%, she said.

"The minute those interest rates come down, all hell's gonna break loose and prices are gonna go through the roof," she said.

The founder of The Corcoran Group also highlighted insatiable demand for homes in Florida and other southern states. But she waved away fears that the regional boom is a 2008-style bubble.

"We don't have wild-ass investing in the market," she said. "It's their hard-earned cash in the market, people aren't overleveraged, there's really no comparison to now."

Corcoran struck a far more negative tone on commercial real estate. The debt-fueled sector is facing a slew of headwinds including falling asset prices, higher borrowing costs, and reduced access to credit as lenders pull back following the recent banking turmoil.

Office buildings and other commercial spaces are now available at steep discounts as a result, but few people are willing to risk buying them when the remote-working trend has helped drive vacancy rates to between 20% and 50% in many cities, Corcoran explained.

"You know who's gonna take it in the gut? The banks, the regional banks, the small banks who have financed it," she said, noting that corporate tenants are starting to fall behind on their monthly payments.

"I don't see that turning around," Corcoran said. "I think it's going to be a bit of a bloodbath before it gets better."

The real estate magnate emphasized that regional banks are in danger, as many have at least 25% of their assets in commercial real estate.

"Of course they're at risk," she said. "You couldn't take that kind of hit and keep on ticking. No, they're going to be in trouble, without a doubt."