Why Gattuso is so annoyed by World Cup qualifying system: Is he right?

Italy national team head coach Gennaro Gattuso was critical of the World Cup qualification process, as he feels that it is now harder for European teams to qualify, despite an increase in the number of teams competing in the final tournament. 

Here’s an explanation as to why the CT was so annoyed, and a look at the numbers that back him up. 

Where Italy stand in World Cup qualifying 

In Europe, every nation that finishes at the top of their qualification group will qualify automatically for the 2026 World Cup in North America. Those that finish second will have to go through the play-off system. 

Italy are currently second in Group I with one game to go, and are almost guaranteed to finish there, behind Norway, who are three points clear heading into the final round of fixtures. 

The only way for the Azzurri to overtake Norway is to beat them by nine goals when they play against each other on Sunday. Erling Haaland and his compatriots have a 100% win record in qualifying, including a 3-0 win over Italy in June, and have only conceded four goals across the whole qualifying campaign. 

So, despite beating Moldova 2-0 on Thursday evening, Italy’s place in the play-offs was all-but confirmed following Norway’s 4-1 win over Estonia earlier in the same evening. 

What Gattuso said about World Cup qualifying process 

Speaking after the 2-0 win over Moldova on Thursday evening, Gattuso criticised the World Cup qualifying process, indicating that it is now more difficult for European nations to qualify despite 2026 being the first tournament to feature 48 nations instead of 32. 

“It’s not a question for me, but it is for whoever draws up the rules and the groups,” Gattuso said when asked about the qualifying system that has condemned Italy to another play-off campaign. 

“In 1994 there were two African teams in the World Cup, now there have to be many and it keeps expanding,” Gattuso continued.

“In my day, the top team in each group would go through, plus the best runners-up. We’ve got 18 points, won six games, and still we have to go into another two matches to qualify. It doesn’t seem right.”

Is Gattuso right to complain about World Cup qualifying? 

The 2026 World Cup will feature 16 nations from Europe, at least nine from Africa, at least eight from Asia, at least six from South America, at least six from North and Central America (including the three host nations), at least one from Oceania, and another two slots that will be determined by the inter-confederation play-offs. 

33.33% of the teams competing at the 2026 World Cup will be from Europe, but that is a percentage that has decreased compared to recent tournaments, while it has increased for other continents. 

The 1994 World Cup that Gattuso referred to was a 24-team tournament, and featured 13 nations from Europe: A representation of 54.17% The last two World Cups featured 32 teams, 13 of which were from Europe. In other words, 40.63%, compared to today’s 33.33%.

Only 29% of the 54 European nations that began the qualification process will qualify for the final tournament. Compared to South America, that figure is a guaranteed 60% (six out of 10), and could potentially rise to 70% depending on the inter-confederation play-offs. 

Additionally, given that the qualification system works differently in South America, all of the top-six teams in a 10-team qualifying ‘league’ qualify for the final tournament, while a second-place finish for Italy in a group of five will not be enough. 

For instance, Paraguay, who finished in sixth place in South American qualifying, are guaranteed a place at the 2026 World Cup after winning seven of their 18 qualifiers. Italy have won six from seven, but are still far from guaranteed a spot in the final tournament. 

This is why Gattuso feels that the qualifying system ‘doesn’t seem right’, but what do you think? Share your thoughts of Italy’s World Cup qualifying campaign in the comments below.