Robby's Radar: Trump wants regime change in Iran — that's a big mistake

Regime change—those are the two words on everybody’s mind following the U.S. military’s successful strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Operation Midnight Hammer has been deemed a rousing success, burying the Fordo nuclear site under rubble and apparently setting back Iran’s nuclear program by months or years. Many individuals in the MAGA coalition are skeptical of President Trump’s decision to join Israel in attacking Iran—a decision Trump apparently made after consulting Israeli intelligence, and facing pressure from Israel’s government to act.

Trump, of course, ran for president as the peace candidate and promised no new wars in the Middle East. But he is also deadest against the idea of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon, and so, here we are.

Initially after the strikes, Trump issued a statement: “Now is the time for peace,” and urged the Iranian government to come to the negotiating table.

That’s a good sentiment, although some people may wonder whether having just been attacked, Iran has any interest in coming to the negotiating table. Do they want diplomacy, or are they more determined to fight than they were before?

Regardless, the America First contingent of the MAGA movement, which does not want to become involved another war in the Middle East, and thought Trump was the guy to keep us out of it, could at least take comfort in the fact that the strikes were aimed at Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and were not about overthrowing the Iranian regime.

When asked on the Sunday shows whether we were now at war with Iran. Vice President JD Vance said that we were at war with Iran’s nuclear program, not the country itself. Of course, maybe he has to say that, because the U.S. has not declared war on Iran — something that would take an act of Congress.

But then, just hours ago, Trump wrote something else on Truth Social.

“It’s not politically correct to use the term regime change,” he wrote. “But if the current Iranian regime is unable to Make Iran Great Again, why wouldn’t there be a regime change? MIGA!”

Look, if the people of Iran rise up in some glorious spirit of liberation and replace their Islamic theocratic rulers with a secular democracy, that would obviously be great. It just seems extremely unlikely that that will happen. Our previous regime-change experiences in the region have gone horribly — Iraq, Libya, Syria, et cetera.

U.S. foreign policy cannot revolve around regime change in the Middle East. It doesn’t work. The American people don’t want it. U.S. leaders who have agitated for it have exposed themselves as naïve time and time again.

Now Trump typically has excellent political instincts. But on this one, he’s not listening to his base, which wants America First. Trump should spend more time with Tucker Carlson, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Sen Rand Paul (R-Ky.), as well as Joe Rogan and everybody in the MAGA movement who put some degree faith in Trump because he consistently opposed disastrous wars in the Middle East.

Make Iran Great Again? I’m sorry, no, it’s Make America Great Again — and America will not be great if we are bogged down in another Middle East war. We did not vote to enact the political agenda of the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). We voted to mind our own business and focus on domestic problems. I really thought Trump got that. Now I’m not so sure.

Robbie Soave is co-host of The Hill’s commentary show “Rising” and a senior editor for Reason Magazine. This column is an edited transcription of his daily commentary.