Trade Deadline Profile: Sandy Alcantara

The Mariners can Reduce, Reuse, Recycle Alcantara back into Cy Young form

With the trade deadline fast approaching and teams jostling for position in the playoffs, it’s time for teams to make a move. A decision must be made, whether buying, selling, or staying put. In the case of the Seattle Mariners, I think it’s time to buy. The Mariners’ target this season is Sandy Alcántara.

The Mariners have often been lauded for their strong pitching development, but they have also put together one of the best pitching staffs in the MLB, and four out of five of them were developed in the Mariners’ system. However, this season they have taken a noticeable step back, injuries and inconsistent play have plagued the rotation all season. Still, if the Mariners are serious about making the playoffs, I think adding to the rotation should be on the table. Sandy Alcántara makes the most sense as a target.

More recently, Sandy has struggled. The 2022 Cy Young winner has so far in 2025 posted a 6.88 ERA over 14 starts with 55 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.471. Obviously, not ideal, but I don’t think any of this is unexpected. Sandy has a long history of giving up a lot of runs and being hit pretty hard, which I know is not a strong selling point, so let me explain. Throughout his career, Alcántara has finished in the top 10 in runs given up in 2019, 2021, and 2023. He also finished in the top 10 in hits given up in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023. That’s what happens when you are also 2nd in innings pitched from 2019-2023, trailing only Gerrit Cole, while on a team that is consistently middling at best. So, Sandy’s struggles are not entirely out of the norm. Similarly, Alcántara has been in the bottom 10% for max exit velocity every year since 2021. Still with all that, Alcántara has only posted a FIP of 4.86 this season. Is that amazing? No, can you work with that? Yes.

While Alcántara has been roughed up this year, nothing on here is way out of the norm for his performance, nor is he unrecoverable. Paul Sewald was a no-name 31-year-old relief pitcher who had never really shown much of anything. In two and a half years, the Mariners turned him into a 30-save closer with a WHIP of just over 1. Penn Murfee was picked in a draft round that doesn’t exist anymore, and the Mariners got 1.4 WAR out of him over two seasons. He is now struggling for the White Sox. Kendall Graveman was a middle-of-the-road starter, seemingly at a crossroads in his career. The Mariners turned him into one of the best relievers in the AL for a season, and he earned $13 million from the White Sox. Chris Flexen was a washed-up starter who was sure he would be in Korea for the rest of his career. The Mariners got 4 WAR over two seasons out of him in the major leagues and turned him into a quality start machine. There’s no reason to think the Mariners can’t help Alcantara also turn it around. They’ve shown they can take pitchers in much worse spots with less positive history and turn them into all-stars; there’s no reason they can’t take Alcantara, whose underlying numbers are more in line with his career numbers, and return him to closer to Cy Young form.

Some significant aspects of Alcántara’s game need to be worked on, and Seattle could be the best place to do it. What stood out is that Alcántara’s walk rate spiked from 6% in 2023 to 10% in 2025. A 4% change is huge for a guy who usually doesn’t walk that many people. This also works in conjunction against him with his pitches getting put in the air far more than anytime in his career, from 48% of balls in play to 51%. This has significantly reduced the weak contact generated, from 4.8% to 1.4%. Plus, the chase rate for Alcántara is way down from 35% in 2023 to 25% in 2025. Despite initial losses on his velocity and stuff in his return from Tommy John surgery that kept him out of the 2024 season, he’s sitting only half a tick or so down on his velocity for his pitches. The Mariners have been successfully managing the velocity decline for Luis Castillo. As a team that prides itself on having pitchers attack the zone, they can support him in adjusting when your velocity is down. Additionally, the Mariners have had a lot of success in helping pitchers work on the movement of their off-speed, and Alcántara’s struggling curveball and slider could use a little tweaking. Plus, with the Marine Layer,™ it may be better for Alcantara to play half his games in T-Mobile, and it could help him keep the ball on the ground or at least get less hard contact on balls in the air.

Moreover, Alcántara is under contract for 2025 and 2026 with a club option for 2027. At $17 million a year for 2025 and 2026, this aligns with the Mariners’ goals of acquiring young controllable talent. Sandy has essentially three years of control left on his contract. The largest number is the option at $21 million, and that would still be a steal for an above-average starting pitcher in the current market. For reference, the older Eduardo Rodriguez signed a 4-year $80 million contract with the Diamondbacks before the 2024 season, and they have been getting a comparable performance. With a better track record and strong intangibles to build off of, Sandy could easily command more than that on the open market, even with his recent struggles.

Now, the elephant in the room, Emerson Hancock and Bryce Miller. For Bryce Miller, I’m not sure if he should play the rest of the season. I’m no doctor, but these arm issues he’s been having seem to be a deeper issue than once thought. I don’t think it’s likely he will pitch much during the rest of this season. Now, Emerson Hancock is a whole different discussion altogether. The 26-year-old righty has been up and down as a spot starter for the Mariners and most recently gave up nine runs in a loss to the Cubs. I like Hancock, I think he has something that could make him an effective major league starter. This year, Hancock and Alcántara are comparable:

But the reality remains that I have more faith in Alcántara rounding back into form than I do in Hancock finally stringing together some consistent performances.

The Mariners’ cost is obviously the contract, as we discussed, but for the trade itself, I think it could be done at the low cost of Emerson Hancock and Harry Ford. The Marlins have a real lack of catching depth within the organization, so Harry Ford would be a huge get for them. Hancock gives them a body to replace Sandy in the rotation, and at 26 years old, he still has time to develop into a serviceable starting pitcher.

Overall, the Mariners should make this happen. While Alcántara has taken a step back, the intangibles tell us there is room to recover. Will he ever be Cy Young caliber again? It’s hard to say. Could he be an all-star caliber pitcher for years to come? I believe so.