Portland has the worst housing crisis outlook, LendingTree finds
PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) – Portland has the worst housing crisis outlook among the largest metro areas in the United States, according to a LendingTree study released Tuesday.
The study analyzed housing markets in 100 of the largest metro areas in the U.S., analyzing vacancy rates, housing unit approvals and home value-to-income ratios.
“In doing so, we found that three of the five metros with the worst outlook are in the Pacific Northwest,” LendingTree said.
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The study ranks Portland, Ore., Boise, Idaho, Bridgeport, Conn., Spokane, Wash. and Salt Lake City, Utah as metros with the worst housing crisis outlook.
According to LendingTree, Portland ranks the worst mostly because of a lack of housing and unaffordability.
“Most notably, Portland has the fourth-lowest vacancy rate in the nation at just 4.76%. (While low vacancy rates can indicate strong demand, they can lead to a tighter housing market with higher home prices.) It also has the 13th-highest home value-to-income ratio, at 5.57. (This means median home values are 5.57 times more than the median income; the higher the ratio, the higher the unaffordability.),” LendingTree explained.
According to LendingTree, the median home value in Portland is $526,500. However, the median household income is $94,573.
In addition to housing unaffordability, vacancy rates are also an issue in the Pacific Northwest, the study found.
“The vacancy rates in Portland and Boise are less than half of those in many other big metros,” said LendingTree Chief Consumer Finance Analyst Matt Schulz.
“When that happens, prices rise, making things even more expensive. Unfortunately, this isn’t likely to change in many of the most troubled metros because the data shows that insufficient building is being done. That’s not the case in Boise, where new permits are among the highest in the nation, but it’s the case in Portland, Bridgeport and other metros with similar rankings. That doesn’t bode well for the near future,” Schulz added.
According to the study, metro areas in the Pacific Northwest have the worst housing outlook while cities in the southern United States have the best outlook.
The study ranked McAllen, Texas, as the metro with the best housing outlook, where the median home value is $124,000 and the median household income is $52,281.
Wilmington, N.C., Winston-Salem, N.C., Baton Rouge, La. and Augusta, Ga. round out the top five metros with the best housing crisis outlook, according to LendingTree.
“Many of these are relatively low-income areas,” Schulz explained. “Plus, Southern metros don’t tend to be as densely packed, especially compared to their Northeastern counterparts, meaning there’s more room to build and grow. More available property tends to mean lower costs.”
The lending marketplace noted, some metros – including in southern states – are seeing growing housing unaffordability.
These metros include Durham, N.C., Charlotte, N.C., Spokane, Washington, Boise, Idaho and Atlanta, Georgia.