Assessing the Guardians: Ball, uh, Finds a Way

Taking stock of where the Guardians are at the end of May

In the immortal words of Jeff Goldblum’s character in Jurassic Park (adapted for our purposes):

If there is one thing the history of baseball has taught us it’s that ball will not be contained. Ball breaks free, it expands to new positions and crashes through barriers, inexplicably, maybe even ridiculously, but, uh…well, there it is. Ball, uh... finds a way.

As we check in on the Guardians at the traditional point at which it is fair to take initial assessments of a baseball team, there are four primary problematic areas on the team:

Guardians’ right fielders are last in MLB at 35 wRC+

Guardians’ shortstops are 29th in MLB at 41 wRC+

Guardians centerfielders are last in MLB at 35 wRC+

Guardians starting pitchers are 25th in MLB with a 4.46 SIERA

So, aside from roughly half of the players on the field, the Guardians are very good. Aside from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play? Or, so as not to mix my cultural references too badly, aside from the raptors getting loose, how did you enjoy your visit to Jurassic Park?

With the JUST announced news that Lane Thomas has plantar fascitis, I would guess that a return trip to the IL is in his future. Thomas and Nolan Jones have been the primary culprits in dragging the centerfielder wRC+ down to the depths, just as Brayan Rocchio and (now) Gabriel Arias have been responsible for destroying the shortstop wRC+, and Jones and Jhonkensy Noel have continued the proud Guardians’ outfielder tradition of failing to produce in right field. So, maybe there is hope that Thomas needs more time to get right and Angel Martinez can maintain something like a league average bat with slightly below average defense there. I know metrics would say that Angel is going to regress; but the kid just keeps coming up big over and over again. Let ball find a way.

For right field, it is fast approaching time to let the people playing right field in Columbus take their shot at the big leagues. The Guardians don’t seem to believe in Johnathan Rodriguez and his swing-and-miss and groundball rates aren’t promising. His 90.8 mph average exit velocity, 45.5% hard-hit rate and 131 wRC+ looks like a cup of water to any person walking through the desert wastelands of our right field production. I suspect, however, it is mostly his eye-wateringly bad defense keeping him from giving Jhonk a break. Good news, however, as the team has been trying CJ Kayfus in right field, where his arm is quite poor but his speed and jump seems more than adequate. Again, his average exit velocity of 88.2 mph and 45.2% hard-hit rate accompanied by his 179 wRC+ seems like something that can help compensate for maybe a handful more runners going first to third because of his arm. And, then, of course, the name on every Guardians’ fan’s lips right now, Chase DeLauter, who is again healthy enough to show everyone why the team made him a first round draft pick; in 50 minor league games from 2024-2025 (mostly at Columbus) he has a 133 wRC+ and 14.2/13.2 K/BB%. In his thirteen game tour of Spring Training in 2024, he flashed a tantalizing 319 wRC+. I get that they are trying to build up his strength and health, but I wonder if it would be possible and even beneficial to do it under auspices of the best trainers and medical folks in the organization in Cleveland? And, then, there is George Valera demolishing pitching in the complex league. Guardians, right field has experienced some sort of curse so that nothing has worked there. But, uh, ball finds a way. Try something new and let it break some barriers and perform a miracle on us.

Before I return to the shortstop position, the solution for starting pitching seems to be mostly get these folks to start throwing strikes. Their 4.21 walks per 9 innings leads baseball by a wide margin. I think we can see the potential for Tanner Bibee to find himself (as frustrating as yesterday’s outing against the Dodgers was, he still racked up seven strikeouts), for Luis Ortiz to be special, and for Slade Cecconi to be the next pitching factory win. But, man, does Gavin Williams need to start trusting his stuff and pitching with confidence. And, man, do we need to try Parker Messick over Logan Allen, until Shane Bieber is ready. And, maybe pray for ball to find a way for John Means’ new elbow to help us in August. If ball finds a way in Austin Peterson and his miniscule walk rate, don’t be afraid to be aggressive there either. Finally, the prices for starting pitching are extremely high during trade deadlines, but if some team is wildly in love with a top prospect in the Guardians’ system, I would hope they are willing to be aggressive in July. But, most of all, I think the arms on hand need to find a way to consistently throw strikes and trust their stuff.

Finally, shortstop. I know the plan here... see if Arias can find his way back to respectability as a hitter while he provides good defense, and pivot back to Brayan Rocchio if not. I am cool with it. But, ball, uh, finds a way. Right now, the Guardians have one middle infielder we can rely on to produce at the plate and it’s Daniel Schneemann with a 130 wRC+ and a .352 wOBA that almost exactly matches his .357 xwOBA. Even ZiPS sees him as an above average hitter for the rest of the season at 102 wRC+.

Not only that, but Schneemann is now average to above average in a small sample at shortstop by the fielding metrics. Folks, with the news that Juan Brito is swinging a bat again in Arizona, I’d like to present the mind-blowing possibility that ball is breaking out in Schneemann in such a way that he may be the best option for the Guardians’ starting shortstop position if and when the occasion should arise that Juan Brito is healthy and ready for a promotion. What a miracle of ball that no one (certainly not me) ever expected. But, hey, let it happen. (Also, note to Stephen Vogt: Stop pinch-hitting Will Wilson for him every time a lefty reliever comes to the mound and let ball find a way there too).

As May comes to a conclusion, it is highly likely that the Guardians are a mediocre baseball team with a couple special players (Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan) which might enable them to sneak into the playoffs as a six seed. But, there are certainly still reasons to hope for more. There are prospect eggs to incubate, and baseball talent DNA strands to monitor that could still change this team into a fearsome predator destined to rule the jungles of American League. I can’t tell you if that WILL happen, but I can tell you that it WON’T happen unless the Cleveland front office and management is aggressive in creating opportunities for the spirit of ball inside of the young players performing in their system and underrated players performing in the big leagues to find a way... sooner, rather than later.