The 5 most competitive gubernatorial races to watch in 2026

Multiple states are gearing up for competitive gubernatorial elections next year, which will offer a litmus test for the parties on voter sentiment.

Michigan and Georgia are teeing up open races as both Govs. Gretchen Whitmer (D) and Brian Kemp (R), respectively, are term-limited. Wisconsin could also see an open race, as Gov. Tony Evers (D) has not said yet whether he’ll run for a third term.

Meanwhile, incumbent Govs. Katie Hobbs (D) of Arizona and Joe Lombardo (R) of Nevada are bracing for high-stakes reelection battles. While President Trump won all five of those states in November, the president’s party is bracing for midterm backlash next year.

Here are the five most competitive gubernatorial races to watch in 2026:

Wisconsin

All eyes are on Evers in the Badger State as both parties wait to see whether the Wisconsin governor runs for a third term.

Evers ousted two-term incumbent Gov. Scott Walker (R) in 2018 by just more than a percentage point, later beating Trump-endorsed candidate Tim Michels (R) by more than 3 points in 2022. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported in January that Evers appeared inclined toward running for another term.

There’s been speculation that if Evers opts against a third term that Ben Wikler, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, could launch a bid. Wikler has dodged questions over whether he would run should Evers not seek reelection.

The only Republican candidate who’s announced a bid so far is Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann. Others who could launch bids include businessman Bill Berrien, who formed Never Out of the Fight PAC last month.

A press release for the political action committee says it’s “dedicated to advancing conservative policy solutions and helping Republican candidates get back to winning.”

Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.), who represents Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District, could also make a bid for the seat.

Arizona

Hobbs is gearing up for what will be a tough reelection fight. She narrowly eked out a win in 2022 against Republican Kari Lake, the more Trump-aligned candidate in the GOP primary who attracted controversy over her remarks on issues like the 2020 election.

This time around, Hobbs could go against either developer Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost to Lake in the Republican primary last cycle, or Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), a member of the House Freedom Caucus.

Trump endorsed both candidates last month, despite offering his support to Robson last year before she had even announced a gubernatorial bid. While Trump performed his best in Arizona among the seven battleground states in November, Republicans have struggled in other statewide races there, including for senator and governor in recent years.

Michigan

The race for Michigan governor is wide open since Whitmer is term-limited. Several high-profile candidates have emerged on both sides. On the Democratic side, high-profile candidates include Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson.

On the Republican side, several notable Republican names have also cropped up: Rep. John James (R-Mich.), who represents Michigan’s 10th Congressional District; former state Attorney General Mike Cox; and Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt.

One curveball has already emerged in Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who was elected as a Democrat but who’s running as an independent for governor.

Michigan will also see a high-stakes Senate race next year, as Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) announced he would not be seeking another term. That retirement is likely to help add more awareness and ad dollars to the gubernatorial race.

Michigan was Democrats’ second-best performing state out of the seven battlegrounds, with Trump beating Harris by 1.4 points in November.

Nevada

Lombardo pulled off a notable upset in 2022 when he defeated then-Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) — a year that largely benefited Democrats amid post-Roe backlash. It also made him the only Republican to flip a governor’s mansion that cycle.

The former Clark County sheriff enjoyed Trump’s endorsement in the GOP primary last cycle, though he’s had to carefully navigate his relationship with the president at times as a candidate and in office. He avoided weighing in on the GOP presidential primary until less than a month before the Nevada GOP caucus as one of the small handful of Republican governors leading a state that hosts an early presidential contest. At same time, he’s toed a delicate line as someone who’s been defensive of the president.

On the Democratic side, Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford has signaled he will likely run, while Sisolak could also make a potential bid for his old seat, according to the Las Vegas Sun.

One unique aspect of Nevada is its service sector-oriented economy, which means politicians must introduce themselves to voters regularly as residents routinely move in and out of the state.

Another thing to watch is the effect of tariffs on the state, which will offer a key test of just how economically — and politically — impactful they could be on battleground states.

Georgia

The contours of the Georgia gubernatorial race are still forming as Republicans and Democrats eye replacing Kemp, who is term-limited and could run for Senate against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.).

On the GOP side, state Attorney General Chris Carr has announced a run, and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones is also expected to enter the race.

On the Democratic side, state Sen. Jason Esteves and former Impact Church pastor Olu Brown have announced bids for the seat. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms has filed paperwork that would allow her to raise money for a gubernatorial campaign, though she has not formally announced one.

Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Ga.) has also filed similar paperwork but has since paused future efforts, citing her husband’s health.

Another Democrat who could enter the race is Stacey Abrams, who ran against Kemp in 2018 and 2022 and lost both times.

One potential hurdle for Abrams — in addition to questions around her viability if she were to run for a third term — would be the scrutiny around her New Georgia Project and New Georgia Project Action Fund, which were fined $300,000 after admitting they had helped campaign for her during her first gubernatorial run, violating state law.

However, an Abrams spokesperson told The New York Times in January that “Stacey hasn’t been involved in the organization’s work since she departed in 2017.”