ANC Gauteng bets on internal renewal to lift 2026 election prospects

The ANC in Gauteng believes it is on track to secure at least 40% of the vote in the 2026 local government elections, according to party insiders familiar with internal and external polling data.

The forecast emerged from a two-day weekend lekgotla in Fourways, Johannesburg, where the party’s provincial task team (PTT) met regional officials, members of the provincial legislature caucus, municipal representatives and national executive committee (NEC) members to craft a recovery plan for the embattled party.

A source who was part of the meeting told the Mail & Guardian that the research was conducted internally and externally and it showed that the ANC should grow in the upcoming elections.

“The external one, the settling is too little, ours is much broader, but I can say that even that 40% is almost like a lower estimate based on work not done. The elections will not necessarily be in 2026 it can even be in February 2027,” the source said. 

“If we make sure that we implement all the programmes that we agreed upon, we up Ekurhuleni, we up Johannesburg and we lessen the tensions amongst members because elections that are ruptures are going to destroy us further. So even that 40% is going to improve dramatically.”

The ANC’s national support dropped significantly in the May 2024 general elections, getting just 36.49% of the vote — down from 50.19% in 2019. 

The decline in Gauteng, the country’s most populous province and its economic engine, has sparked urgent efforts by the NEC to restructure its leadership and to reassert its political relevance.

The party dissolved its previous leadership and installed the PTT with a mandate to inspire hope, respond to electoral setbacks and accelerate transformation in line with its broader renewal agenda.

As part of the plan to exceed the projected 40% threshold, the ANC is prioritising stabilisation in key municipalities, particularly Tshwane. 

“In my view, leaving it at 40% is correct but pushing it to 47% is what we need to do. There must be one or two metros which must be won,” the source said.

Another source told M&G that the report showed that the ANC would receive 40% in the elections but raised concerns about the party working with the Democratic Alliance (DA) and “the VAT matter”.

“We can’t be having the DA in the GNU, if we are to get support from the community. We know about these issues they are complaining about and this is what we must address. The polls say 40% but we still need to work hard.” 

Responding to a question in a briefing after the PTT meeting on Sunday,  co-convenor Panyaza Lesufi said the polling had caused excitement within the party. 

“The issues of membership-buying and the issues of using money to influence the outcome, as this legotla and this PTT, it’s an area that we will prioritise so that we stamp out that kind of conduct and that kind of behaviour. 

Lesufi’s co-convener Amos Masondo was more cautious, acknowledging the uncertainty of election outcomes but voicing confidence in the ANC’s ability to regain support. 

“There is no way that the party could foretell the outcomes of the elections but, overall, the research and the kinds of discussion that the party has had, the ANC is confident that it would be able to turn back the wheel and have a positive outcome.”

The party is preparing to hold several regional conferences, with Johannesburg scheduled for June. However, Lesufi has warned against the use of these platforms for factional advantage.

Hope Papo, the party’s provincial coordinator, said that while conferences are a vital part of renewal, unity would not be sacrificed. 

“If processes of the conference are used to further divide the organisation, the PTT will act on those activities,” Papo said. “We should not tolerate that kind of behaviour, whether by any branch leader, any member or any regional leader or any PTT member or any other member of the organisation.”

Papo emphasised the need for ethical leadership. “No weak organisation can serve diligently and fairly,” he said. 

“The majority of ANC members are not delinquent and disruptors … the job of the PTT is to isolate those who are doing wrong things in the organisation to protect the rights of ANC members who, in the main, comply with what they are required to do as party members.”