Recession fears put Canadians' homebuying plans on hold, says BMO survey
Rising fears of a recession in Canada are causing potential homebuyers to hit pause on making a purchase, according to a new Bank of Montreal survey.
Nearly three-quarters of people considering buying a home have adopted a “wait-and-see approach,” up from 60 per cent in March, indicating fears of an economic downturn are having an effect, the survey said.
Ipsos Canada surveyed 2,500 people from March 3 to 26 for BMO’s quarterly look at Canadians’ personal finances and financial progress, but then asked some follow-up questions in April due to the dramatic economic shift as Donald Trump unleashed his tariffs war .
After showing some first tentative signs of a pickup at the end of last year, Canada’s housing market has significantly slumped as homebuyers’ dreams were delayed due to the fallout from Trump’s tariffs.
In April, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) revised its forecast for home sales to increase by just 0.2 per cent from a year ago, instead of the 8.9 per cent it predicted in January.
CREA also predicted the national average home price will fall 0.3 per cent on an annual basis to $687,898 in 2025, a drop of $30,000 compared with January’s forecast.
Canadians’ recession fears are not unfounded.
Deloitte Canada ‘s economic outlook released last week called for a recession to start in the second quarter of this year, with growth contracting by 1.1 per cent and then by 0.9 per cent in the third quarter due to significant trade uncertainties.
Canadians should be prepared for “ really soft economic activity over the next six to eight months,” Dawn Desjardins, chief economist at Deloitte Canada, said.
That dynamic reared up in other areas of BMO’s survey.
For example, 82 per cent said the “fear of the unknown” was their leading source of financial anxiety, while 81 per cent said they harboured worries about their overall financial situation and 72 per cent cited housing costs as a concern.
In April 2024, elevated interest rates posed the greatest barrier to people jumping into the housing market, with 72 per cent of homebuyers saying they were waiting for the Bank of Canada to lower rates. Back then, policymakers were months away from launching a rate-cutting regime that resulted in seven consecutive trims to bring rates to 2.75 per cent from five per cent.
Though interest rates are significantly lower today, 38 per cent of those looking to buy a home said they are waiting for mortgage rates to drop below three per cent or even lower. The lowest five-year fixed mortgage rate currently available sits at 3.74 per cent, according to MortgageLogic.news , a bulletin that analyzes mortgage and interest rates and is edited by Financial Post real estate columnist Robert McLister .
Even with home prices on the decline, 56 per cent of people said they feel like they “missed their moment” to buy a home and half said that owning a home appears “less attainable” now than it did a year ago.
A year ago, 56 per cent of people who aspired to owning a home told BMO they felt that was an “unattainable” goal.
“Housing and borrowing conditions now versus a year ago, are better. It’s not where we need to be, but they are better,” Kavcic said.
— With a file from Jordan Gowling, Financial Post
• Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com
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