Why Blackhawks should root against themselves in 2025 NHL Draft lottery

The Blackhawks might want to root against themselves in the NHL Draft lottery this year.

That sounds ridiculous at first, but there’s actually a logical reason. It stems from a rule the league implemented in 2021 that prevents any team from moving up in the draft order via lottery draw more than twice in any five-year span.

The Hawks obviously moved up in 2023, getting the No. 1 pick with the third-highest odds. They technically also won the lottery for the No. 2 pick in 2024 with the second-highest odds. That, however, didn’t count toward the aforementioned rule because they merely retained their presumptive draft position.

The Hawks enter the 2025 lottery, which will take place sometime in early May, in the same position as last year. The one point they earned Saturday against the Jets secured 31st place — between the last-place Sharks and the 30th-place Predators.

They’re guaranteed a top-four pick. They’ll enter the lottery with a 13.5% chance of picking first, a 14.1% chance of picking second, a 30.7% chance of picking third and a 41.7% chance of picking fourth.

If the Hawks land the No. 1 pick, they will be prevented from moving up in the lottery in 2026 and 2027, marking the first time that new rule has come into play.

On one hand, the Hawks sincerely hope to begin climbing the standings next season. And, if they succeed in doing so, their lottery odds will be significantly lower. On the other hand, maintaining even slim chances of moving up in those years probably would be more valuable than moving up one spot this year.

The dynamics of the 2025 draft class are the biggest reason why. Canadian defenseman Matthew Schaefer is the consensus No. 1 pick, but the next six to eight best prospects are all forwards.

Given the state of the Hawks’ prospect pool, they need another elite forward much more than they need another elite defenseman.

Every NHL general manager, including the Hawks’ Kyle Davidson, heralds the logic of selecting the ‘‘best player available’’ instead of drafting prospects specifically to fill positional needs. Positional needs can change quickly, and trades can be used to redistribute imbalances down the road.

But it would make the Hawks’ situation more complicated if they ended up with Schaefer rather than with forward Michael Misa — who has emerged as the consensus No. 2 pick — or another forward such as Porter Martone, Anton Frondell, Caleb Desnoyers or James Hagens (the former top prospect in the class whose stock gradually has declined).

With Schaefer, Artyom Levshunov, Sam Rinzel, Kevin Korchinski and Alex Vlasic, the Hawks would be overwhelmed with potential top-pairing young defensemen and be unable to give them all sufficient opportunities. Young forwards Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar and Oliver Moore, meanwhile, wouldn’t have enough complementary pieces developing in the pipeline.

Such a positional imbalance basically would call for a trade, but Davidson also frequently heralds how the trade market takes two to tango. Plus, trading top prospects rarely returns fair value.

Trading down from the No. 1 pick is rare and difficult in the NHL, too, even though that theoretically would be an option. That hasn’t happened since 2003.

Many Hawks fans already have begun salivating over Misa, whose well-rounded game has dominated the Ontario Hockey League season.

The Hawks, of course, would be free to select Misa — or whomever they determine to be the best forward in the class — with the No. 1 pick, regardless of public perception. But they still would lose their future upward mobility in that case.

That’s why sticking at No. 2 would be the best-case outcome. Depending on how large the Hawks consider the gap between the best and second- and third-best forwards to be, even falling to
No. 3 or No. 4 might be better than winning the lottery.