Why gold prices could hit $3,000 despite volatility
Gold prices likely won’t lose their shine, even after a 40%-plus run over the last 12 months.
The SPDR Gold shares, or GLD, the largest exchange-traded fund backed by physical gold, saw the largest one-day inflow ever of $1.9 billion on Feb. 21, 2024.
"We believe the demand is across the board. We see institutions either adding to or establishing long term strategic asset allocation type positions. We see individual investors doing the same. We see a certain amount of FOMO. There's a fear of missing out whenever the price gains momentum to the upside" George Milling-Stanley, Chief Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, told FOX Business.
He highlights three longer-term growth drivers aligning for more gold gains this year.
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"We have continued very strong central bank buying for official reserves. This has been a feature of the last 15 years at the gold market, and it's been very important, ranging anywhere from 10% to 25% of total end-user demand in any given year. And I think that's very important support for the price whenever it's shown any sign of weakening", Milling-Stanley explained. "Central bank buying basically doubled in 2022 to more than 1000 metric tons," he added.
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"Additionally, we've seen a big increase in investment in the emerging markets and especially China, but in India and elsewhere over the last year, year and a half, toward the end of last year, that was joined by a big increase in emerging market jewelry demand as well, again, across the emerging markets" he added. "We've seen a revival in investment in gold in the Western world, in Western Europe and North America, I think mostly because of concerns about the outlook for the US economy and for the European economies, for that matter."
Gold has pulled back from its record $2,947 an ounce; still Milling-Stanley is forecasting the yellow metal could trade between $2,900-$3,100 later this year.
Inflation remains a wildcard. The consumer price index in January rose 3%, more than expected. Prices remain elevated for items like eggs, beef and transportation.
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On Friday, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure rose in January, on an annual basis, 2.5%, with the core PCE up 2.5%. Both were in line with analyst expectations.