When it comes to Oscars statistics, here are the ones that really matter

Here at Gold Derby, we traffic in data. We use numbers, odds, and statistics to predict awards. But when it comes to the Oscars, some statistics matter more.

Famously, the rates of milk consumption and divorce in Colorado have been shown to correlate closely in the past few years. But how much are they influencing each other? Probably not a whole lot.

So, when it comes to the Oscars, which stats are worth paying attention to? We will look at some common data points referenced by prognosticators and tell you which to consider when making your final Oscar picks.

To win Best Picture, you need a Best Director nomination

For a long time, a Best Director nomination was touted as a “must-have” for a film vying to win Best Picture. In the past few years, Best Picture contenders Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and Trial of the Chicago 7 did not receive Best Director nominations, and each wound up losing. Eight of the past 10 Best Picture winners have received Best Director nominations.

While this is a strong statistic, the directing branch makes up only 5 percent of the Academy membership. The branch itself is famous for its high-brow taste. This is along with their aversion to newcomers.

Don’t be swayed by this statistic for those leaning towards Conclave. Edward Berger is a relatively new filmmaker in Hollywood, which is a likely reason for his omission in the category. He also was snubbed two years ago for All Quiet on the Western Front despite winning the BAFTA. This is more a “pay your dues” knock from the directors' branch than a lack of support among the Academy membership.

Furthermore, best picture winners CODA and Green Book did not receive directing nominations.

They did win a screenplay prize though, which Conclave looks poised to do, also; having a good winning package at the Oscars bodes well for a film’s best picture prospects.

This leads us to a more causative stat.

To win Best Picture, you need below-the-line success

In the age of the preferential ballot, where Academy members rank each Best Picture, a film theoretically doesn’t need to capture any other category to win the big prize since there is a heightened value on second- and third-place votes. However, a film still has yet to win Best Picture without landing at least one other down-ballot statuette.

Winning other categories signifies passion, which paves the way for additional Oscar success. This is even true with upset wins — see: Alejandro González Iñárritu’s Best Original Screenplay win for Birdman, Bong Joon-Ho’s Best Director win for Parasite, and Frances McDormand’s Best Actress win for Nomadland.

Anora could lose Best Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, or Director and still win Best Picture. Conclave could win only Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture. However, either film's failure to win a single other Oscar signifies a lack of passion among Academy members. And in a close race like this year, passion is the ultimate decider.

The “needle-mover” category

As the ceremony progresses, pundits and Oscar aficionados look at different categories to divine where the race is headed. This year, keep an eye on Best Editing. If Anora upsets Conclave in that category, it is highly likely that the former will also take Best Picture. There hasn’t been a clear frontrunner all season, and according to Gold Derby odds, it remains one of the tightest going into the weekend. One of the key predictors, the America Cinema Editors' ACE Eddie Awards, was delayed due to the Los Angeles wildfires, so we don't have that data point. The Critics Choice Awards winner, Challengers, wasn’t even nominated. The Academy typically goes for flashy editing (Ford v Ferrari, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Bohemian Rhapsody), which would have most benefited Emilia Perez had that film not been torpedoed by controversy. The editing style in Anora isn’t usually what attracts voters, which is why the suspenseful Conclave might have the edge in a year where every vote counts.

Conclave won the BAFTA for editing, where it also took home Best Film. An Oscar win would show strong support among the Academy. Conversely, Anora doesn’t need to win this category because it has strength elsewhere. However, if Anora does win, Sean Baker's film would be on track for a significant haul the rest of the night.

It's also worth paying attention to Best Score. If Conclave upsets The Brutalist in the category, it would suggest a passion for Conclave that exceeds even the British Academy, where The Brutalist triumphed, but Conclave still won best film at BAFTA. If Conclave wins here, a Best Picture upset could be afoot.

We keep mentioning how certain films won precursor awards, but which is the most reliable? The Hollywood guilds? The BAFTAs? Let’s examine some key categories.

DGA vs. BAFTA: Best Director

The British Academy and the Motion Picture Academy substantially overlap in membership, which is why the former's BAFTAs tend to be a great indicator of the Oscars.

Eight of the last 10 Best Director Oscar winners also won the BAFTA. However, nine of that same 10 won the Directors Guild of America's top award. The DGA comprises nearly 20,000 members. And while they may only make up a maximum of 5 percent of the Motion Picture Academy membership, these are working artists very attuned to industry trends. The DGA is historically the most accurate predictor of the Best Director Oscar. Only eight times in its history has the DGA winner not repeated at the Oscars, that's a success rate of almost 90 percent, with 75 percent of those directors having their films also win Best Picture.

That would favor Sean Baker, who won the DGA, over The Brutalist's Brady Corbet, who won the BAFTA. The DGA-BAFTA split has occurred twice in recent years, and in both cases, the DGA winner took home the Academy Award: Tom Hooper for The King's Speech and Iñárritu for Birdman. Both Birdman and The King’s Speech were big hits with the guilds, winning the PGA and SAG ensemble award, also. Those films also won Best Picture at the Oscars.

Though The Brutalist performed very well at BAFTA, taking home four awards, its support lies more with international voters than Americans. The film fared poorly with the guilds — it lost ASC and PGA and was not nominated for best ensemble at SAG — and is no longer considered a strong contender for Best Picture.

So, while the Motion Picture Academy has expanded and diversified over the past several years, gaining more international voters and giving more credence to the BAFTA vote, the DGA still sets the bar for now.

BAFTA vs SAG: Best Actress

The Screen Actors Guild also overlaps with Oscar voters, with the acting branch representing the biggest bloc at the Academy, with 12.7 percent. However, because SAG has some 160,000 members, its choices tend to be more populist than the British Academy (whose membership numbers around 8,000).

Like other guilds, SAG loves a good narrative: think Glenn Close for The Wife, Chadwick Boseman and Viola Davis for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Jamie Lee Curtis and Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once, Brendan Fraser for The Whale, and Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon. Earlier this month, SAG awarded Best Actress to current narrative queen Demi Moore for her role in The Substance.

The BAFTAs don’t care about narratives. They picked Anthony Hopkins (The Father) over Boseman; Frances McDormand (Nomadland) over Davis; Olivia Colman (The Favourite) over Close; Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) over Curtis; Cate Blanchett (Tár) over Yeoh; Austin Butler (Elvis) over Fraser; and Emma Stone (Poor Things) over Gladstone. This year, the BAFTAs went with Mikey Madison (Anora) over Moore for Best Actress. BAFTA champ Hopkins won the Oscar; so did McDormand; and Colman; and Stone. But SAG correctly called Curtis; and Yeoh; and Fraser. So, who wins the Oscar between Madison and Moore?

Curtis and Yeoh had a very popular film on their side, with Everything Everywhere winning Best Picture. Banshees and Tár were nominated, yes, but they weren't nearly as strong. The Substance won’t win Best Picture, but Anora very well could. It’s similar to Stone and Poor Things, which had a stellar Oscar night, capturing four Oscars, while Killers of the Flower Moon went home empty-handed. The Oscars also blanked Elvis, while The Whale, though not nominated for Best Picture, won two Oscars. That additional award was for Best Makeup and Hairstyling, which The Substance seems poised to win, too.

These races are not black-and-white. There are no perfect comparisons. The trends point towards Madison because Anora is a far stronger Best Picture contender than The Substance. Still, this is perhaps the most difficult category to parse this year, and that has to do with Fernanda Torres.

The Brazilian star of I’m Still Here star had a late surge, being nominated for an Oscar and winning the Golden Globe for dramatic actress despite missing all of the industry precursors. A similar situation happened with Penélope Cruz for Parallel Mothers back in 2021, who eventually fell to Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye). Unlike Parallel Mothers, I’m Still Here received a Best Picture nomination, meaning more voters likely watched Torres' performance than Cruz's.

Still, Torres has yet to face off against either Madison or Moore at a major awards ceremony, making her the ultimate wild card.

SAG vs BAFTA: Best Actor

Another tug-of-war between SAG and BAFTA this year concerns Best Actor, with A Complete Unknown's Timothée Chalamet (SAG) and The Brutalist's Adrien Brody (BAFTA) splitting the two precursors.

As noted, The Brutalist has underperformed with the guilds all season long. It was all but blanked at SAG, so it comes at no surprise that Chalamet won there. After all, A Complete Unknown received a whopping four SAG nods. It has also been a box-office success, making more than $100 million worldwide.

Where The Brutalist has been performing well, though, is with international voters, as shown at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs where Brody triumphed. So, if The Brutalist has a good night at Oscar, expect Brody to come along for the ride. If it loses some below-the-line categories such as best cinematography or best original score, there may be trouble ahead — especially if A Complete Unknown upsets Dune: Part Two in Best Sound. The Oscars have looked kindly on transformative biopic performances regardless of age; Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody and Eddie Redmayne in Theory of Everything were both under 40 when they won. Chalamet would become the youngest Best Actor winner ever at 29. And if a couple of categories don’t go The Brutalist's way early on Oscar night, he might just do it.