MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC Fight Night 253 main event between flyweights Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev.

Manel Kape UFC Fight Night 253 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 20-7 MMA, 6-3 UFC
• Height: 5’5″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 68″
• Last fight: TKO win over Bruno Silva (Dec. 14, 2024)
• Camp: Xtreme Couture MMA (Las Vegas)
• Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 12 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Dynamic striker
^ Works well off the counter
+ Dangerous knees
+ Good bodywork
+ Serviceable wrestling
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Solid scrambler

Asu Almabayev UFC Fight Night 253 preview

Staple info:

• 21-2 MMA, 4-0 UFC
• Height: 5’4″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 65″
• Last fight: Decision win over Matheus Nicolau (Oct. 19, 2024)
• Camp: Dar Pro Team (Kazakhstan)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ 3 KO victories
+ 9 submission victories
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Steadily improving striking
+ Accurate spinning attacks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Works well from bodylock
+ Good takedown ability
^ Transitions well from singles
+ Solid transitional grappler

Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev point of interest: The cost of counters

The main event in Las Vegas features a semi-impromptu fight between two flyweights who are aware of the cost of counters.

Despite being a dynamic showman with a solid arsenal, Manel Kape prefers to do most of his damage off the counter.

Fluent in both stances, Kape keeps a smoothness to his shifts and lateral movements that open up potent offensive opportunities. From counter crosses to counter hooks, Kape keeps a series of short shots that he’s ready to unload on a hair-trigger.

When Kape is feeling in stride, he shows little issue with digging to the body or mixing in the occasional knee up the center to intercept level changes. That said, I’m not sure how wild Kape will get with flying knees or leg kicks considering the takedown threat at play.

Enter Asu Almabayev.

Although Almabayev’s looming takedowns account for the lion’s share of his counters, the Kazakh fighter still presents some interesting looks on the feet.

A deceptively accurate kicker, Almabayev is not shy about throwing everything from front kicks in open-stance looks to spinning sidekicks to the body and head of orthodox opposition.

Almabayev also packs decent left hook and uppercut that are worth watching for, but “Zulfikar” – despite finishing multiple training camps with Henri Hooft and company at Kill Cliff FC – still seems to lack proper setups for his big actions.

We haven’t seen a fighter exploit Almabayev in this area of his game, largely due to the effectiveness of the 31-year-old Kazak’s wrestling.

Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev breakdown interest: Winning the wrestling

Considering the crux of Almabayev’s game, winning the wrestling will be paramount for both parties this Saturday.

Despite not having a Master of Sport credit to his resume, Almabayev wrestles like he’s been doing it for most of his life. From reactive shots in the open to finding answers in the clinch, seldom is Almabayev at a loss for ideas.

Almabayev’s best entries are off of singles, where he either hikes hard for a finish or chains his way to his opponent’s hips. And when Almabayev can establish any combination of double-unders or over-unders, he’s quick to his sneaky inside and outside trips.

Luckily for Kape, he’s no stranger to wrestling and scrambling.

Even when Kape was coming up in the rings of RIZIN, he was no stranger to having to both defend and finish takedowns in sub-optimal positions. Kape has always had an impressive reactive sprawl in open space, but the Angola native has traditionally run into trouble when going for submissions rather than defending the position.

Kape has solid and smooth transitions when operating from topside, but he can get lackadaisical or complacent at times when working from his back (which can be maddening for his supporters considering how hard Kape is capable of scrambling).

Although Kape has come a long way since the submission losses earlier in his career, the jiu-jitsu black belt will need to respect the skills of Almabayev.

A tireless worker from topside, Almabayev sacrifices some of the striking aggression you’d like to see to ensure that his opponent is working hard from negative positions. And if they’re able to work their way to the fence for assistance, Almabayev is quick to use the situation against them by almost baiting them to expose their back trying to base up.

Only needing but the smallest crack of daylight, Almabayev clearly prioritizes back-taking scenarios and finishes to boot.

Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev odds

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the higher-ranked fighter, listing Kape -235 and Almabayev +180 via FanDuel.

Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev prediction, pick

Considering the crux of Almabayev’s game, winning the wrestling will be paramount for both parties this Saturday.

Despite not having a Master of Sport credit to his resume, Almabayev wrestles like he’s been doing it for most of his life. From reactive shots in the open to finding answers in the clinch, seldom is Almabayev at a loss for ideas.

Almabayev’s best entries are off of singles, where he either hikes hard for a finish or chains his way to his opponent’s hips. And when Almabayev can establish any combination of double-unders or over-unders, he’s quick to his sneaky inside and outside trips.

Luckily for Kape, he’s no stranger to wrestling and scrambling.

Even when Kape was coming up in the rings of RIZIN, he was no stranger to having to both defend and finish takedowns in sub-optimal positions. Kape has always had an impressive reactive sprawl in open space, but the Angola native has traditionally run into trouble when going for submissions rather than defending the position.

Kape has solid and smooth transitions when operating from topside, but he can get lackadaisical or complacent at times when working from his back (which can be maddening for his supporters considering how hard Kape is capable of scrambling).

Although Kape has come a long way since the submission losses earlier in his career, the jiu-jitsu black belt will need to respect the skills of Almabayev.

A tireless worker from topside, Almabayev sacrifices some of the striking aggression you’d like to see to ensure that his opponent is working hard from negative positions. And if they’re able to work their way to the fence for assistance, Almabayev is quick to use the situation against them by almost baiting them to expose their back trying to base up.

Only needing but the smallest crack of daylight, Almabayev clearly prioritizes back-taking scenarios and finishes to boot.

Prediction: Kape inside the distance

Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev start time, where to watch

As the main event, Kape and Almabayev are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 9:15 p.m. ET. The fight streams via ESPN+.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC Fight Night 253.