Thinking Beyond a Trump Bump: Media Predictions For 2025

The L.A. Times described Donald Trump’s first term in office as “the lighter fluid that accelerated a news bonfire.” Nieman Lab said it catalyzed “a movement around the importance of journalism.”

In practical terms, it also generated a huge source of traffic and engagement to news sites. As the president-elect prepares to return to the White House, however, media organizations can’t afford to assume history will repeat itself in terms of Trump’s impact on the sector.

In the days leading up to and immediately following the Jan. 20 inauguration ceremony, for example, it’s reasonable to expect major newspapers, magazines, and broadcasters will see spikes in traffic and engagement. Whether that leads to a prolonged “Trump bump” in terms of subscriptions and philanthropic donations is far less certain.

Given some of the near-term objectives Trump has announced, media organizations will have no shortage of political news to cover. The question is how to allocate their resources effectively to provide what audiences want while simultaneously taking steps to sustain and grow their businesses.

This makes it an ideal moment to take a step back, begin scenario planning, look at the lessons learned from the last Trump bump, and ensure your media organization is in a position to deliver an outstanding experience for readers and viewers.

What Trump 2 point 0 means for the media sector, according to the experts

If there is anything approaching consensus among media industry analysts and observers, it’s that Trump’s second term in office could look a lot different from a media consumption standpoint. The possible scenarios include:

1. A short-term surge, bolstered by targeted marketing

Media Growth Partners’ David Clinch told the New York Times a second Trump bump will likely be smaller than what we saw in 2017 and that organizations will likely need to advertise subscriptions to segments with proven interest and engagement. The Times concluded that an overreliance on Trump could prove detrimental:

Regardless of the short-term viewership boost, news executives need to put their long-term missions before their short-term commercial concerns or risk alienating their audiences for years to come.

2. An increased shift towards non-traditional publishers

The recent federal election was notable for leading candidates choosing independent podcasters and social media as key channels to deliver their message. Audiences that receive their news this way may develop very different media consumption habits as a result.

Tubular Labs shared data with Digiday, for instance, that showed that U.S. news and political views to individual creators rose from 71.8% year-over-year to 74.2% of U.S. news & political views. At the same time, views by media publishers fell from 22.3% to 20.2%.

This could mean any second Trump bump will be splintered across a more diverse set of digital properties, including social media platforms and YouTube.

The L.A. Times suggested that alternative news sources are on the rise in part because their coverage is better aligned to audiences’ interests—and that it’s time for traditional publishers to follow their lead:

Large media organizations spent too much time in Washington focused on opinion polls and punditry from political professionals and didn’t listen enough to what the electorate was saying on the ground. Besides right-leaning outlets, media companies may not have paid enough attention to working-class anger over the cost of living during an otherwise robust economic recovery.

3. Audiences tune out, forcing publishers to rebuild

Keeping up with the news used to be considered almost a duty for responsible citizens. Today, avoiding the headlines may be seen among some audiences as an act of self-care.

Just look at a recent story in the Washington Post, for example, where several people describe turning off news alerts and skipping regular news broadcasts. The reasons cited ranged from needing more time to process the election result, feelings of helplessness, and increased stress.

This explains why media veterans like CallMatters investigative editor Andrew Donohue believe there won’t be another Trump bump at all. Writing on Nieman Labs, he predicted media organizations will need to rethink their entire model, from how they run their business to how they show up within communities:

We will triple down on accountability journalism. We will continue to detail the consequences of Trump’s actions, yes. And with the same fervor, we’ll examine the ways our leaders on all levels and all parties are failing to fix our many problems and forgetting to represent the people they’re supposed to serve. We’ll deliver our communities the information in the ways they need and want it, not in the way we always have.

Lessons learned from the last Trump bump, based on data

Fortunately, mapping out the outlook for media in 2025 doesn’t have to be based purely on speculation. Reviewing the analysis of traffic generated across the Parse.ly network during Trump’s last term provides greater context around audience behaviors and insight into how media organizations should respond.

Here’s a sampling of what the data tells us:

• In late 2015, Trump was receiving more coverage than any candidate. After the election, between January and July of 2017, nearly 61% of time was spent consuming political news, and local news wasn’t far behind. The Trump bump, in other words, was in full effect.
• It didn’t last, though. In fact, stories questioning the size of the crowd at Trump’s first inauguration reflected a peak in terms of seven million unique views. People didn’t always follow stories through. The introduction of the American Health Care Act (AHCA), for instance, drove more traffic than when it was passed. Instead, people-driven stories—such as Steve Bannon’s firing—attracted greater audiences.
• Convenience can inform coverage: Looking at how articles about how each candidate performed during Trump’s first run for the White House, Parse.ly showed that pageview data didn’t justify the volume of coverage focused on him. Instead, Trump’s tendency to generate news through his activities on the stage and through social media may make him easier to write about than his rivals.
• ‘Fatigue’ is a superficial explanation when audience behavior changes: Parse.ly also showed that despite strong demand for political content, there was actually a decrease in political news articles in 2017. A more holistic approach to analyzing audience interests needs to factor in elements such as demographics, platforms, and even word count.

The bottom line: there is no shortcut to understanding your audience. Taking a data-driven approach to planning and monitoring coverage will be more important than ever as the media sector experiences a second Trump presidency.

The way forward for media in 2025

Whether or not political news drives traffic, subscriptions, donations, and other benefits, successful media organizations will be those that become highly focused on what they do best. The emphasis should be on:

1. Building (or regaining) audience trust

Late last year, a Gallup survey showed just 31% of Americans express a “great deal” or “fair amount” of confidence in the media to report the news “fully, accurately, and fairly.”

It will take investments in training and developing journalists to work harder at combating misinformation, offering more resources for investigative reporting, and greater insights into audience needs to change those numbers.

Gannett executives told AdWeek the emphasis needs to be on factual, unbiased reporting that tells stories audiences won’t be able to find anywhere else. This will be true whether the stories focus on Trump or any other subject.

2. Innovating within proven growth opportunities

Hoping for another Trump bump is obviously not a solution. A survey from the Alliance for Audited Media found 60% of publishers are developing new ways to reach audiences in 2025, and the remaining 40% need to begin doing the same.

Tactics around digital-only subscriptions, digital-print bundles, events, and new advertising solutions are all worth pursuing.

3. Eliminating tech debt to deliver an outstanding content experience

Publishers can be held back from gaining trust from their audience by tech debt almost as much as the quality of the journalism they produce. It determines how well sites perform during traffic peaks when big news breaks. It also has a bearing on whether a publisher can effectively defend against cyberattacks and protect the security of critical information.

Media organizations have had to make tough financial decisions as they contend with changes in audiences and new competitors. Failing to modernize their underlying technology, however, comes at a cost. It’s a technical debt that accrues the longer upgrades are put off, burdening IT staff and forcing them to act more like technology than media companies.No publisher can afford to carry tech debt any longer.

While there may be opportunities to grow and evolve journalism through artificial intelligence (AI) and other innovative tools, adopting a best-in-class CMS represents the solid foundation they need to get out of maintenance mode and scale. It’s the pragmatic approach to business that even Donald J. Trump would approve.