Michael Penix Jr. gave the Falcons a reason to believe in his first start
Grading Michael Penix Jr.’s debut start for the Falcons
At long last, the final first round rookie QB from the 2024 NFL Draft has started in a regular season football game.
The Atlanta Falcons turned to rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. on Sunday against the New York Giants, in the middle of a tight playoff race with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After QB Kirk Cousins left many uninspired with his play, the turn to Penix Jr. felt like it had to happen in order to save any hopes the Falcons had at the postseason.
The result? An efficient performance that left the Falcons with plenty to be encouraged about. Penix Jr. went 18-27 for 202 yards, no touchdowns and a pick that went off TE Kyle Pitts’ hands in the most Atlanta Falcons way of all time. Penix finished with a 53% Success Rate, which is incredibly good for a rookie QB in his first career start, and also managed to impress his head coach. Per the Atlanta Falcons on SI’s Daniel Flick:
“The plan came a little bit sooner, but the kid was ready,” Morris said postgame. “We had a lot of time to develop him. The kid did a great job himself [of] developing himself and getting ready for that moment where it wasn’t too big.
So, what stood out about Penix Jr’s performance that has everyone talking? Let’s dig in and see.
While it wasn’t a performance full of fireworks, I actually believe it’s the little things that Penix Jr. did that impressed me the most. The rookie looked calm and composed throughout the game, and executed at a level that isn’t like many rookies in their first career start, despite what the raw numbers will tell you. Yes, it was against the New York Giants, but there was some really encouraging stuff from both Penix Jr and the Falcons.
To start off, there was much more play action and bootlegs in this offense than when Cousins was under center. Due to both age and his recovery from an Achilles injury, Cousins just wasn’t able to move at the level he needs to be at in order to operate this offense, so Penix being able to get this offense operating how a McVay offense (Zac Robinson comes from the Rams and McVay) should work is crucial to their success. In fact, the first play of the game was play action, a little half roll to Penix Jr.’s left with WR Drake London peeling back to help in protection.
Penix Jr. gets whacked as he releases this ball, but you can see the RPM’s he puts on the ball. McCloud has to pull this one in, but it’s a good throw that shows off how different the offense is going to look from a target and heat map perspective, trading in some of Kirk’s best value over the middle of the field for some more variance on the outside with a stronger armed Penix Jr.
This is another one that shows off just how impressive Penix Jr.’s arm is. It’s a deep play action drop with seven-man protection, and WR Darnell Mooney is running a deep out route and WR Drake London has a dig route to the backside. Penix takes his drop after the play fake, and rips an absolute laser to Mooney over the outstretched hands of the underneath defender. You have to have a high level of confidence in both your arm and your timing to get this ball up and down before Mooney reaches the sideline, and Penix Jr. fires it in there to move the chains.
It’s a risky throw, yes, but that outside the numbers explosiveness has been something the Falcons were missing with Cousins under center.
This might be his best throw of the day. Another play action attempt with a classic go route/post/anything to keep that corner’s eyes on you combined with a deep over route from the other side. What I love about this pass is that it shows off Penix Jr.’s advanced knowledge of leverage and timing. He throws this ball behind his receiver, but it’s not an inaccurate pass. Rather, it’s a way to protect his receiver from the underneath defender trying to get back into the play.
If Penix Jr. leads this ball, the receiver could get crushed by this defender, or the play results in a pass breakup or interception. It’s this type of really nice, high-IQ things that Penix Jr. was doing on Sunday that have me more impressed than anything.
Where his high-IQ and feel for the game really impressed me was in his standard dropback operation. The Giants tried to speed him up and heat him up with pressure a lot, but he looked MUCH more prepared for that area of the game than I expected, making the ceiling for this offense even higher than before. Penix was pressured 14 times on Sunday, yet didn’t take a sack, which shows off how well he was beating the blitz with his arm and his mind. The first time New York tries to pressure him, they show a mugged look with both linebackers standing in the A gaps. With CB Deonte Banks going in motion with Mooney, Penix Jr. confirms that it’s man coverage, but watch his processing from the end zone angle. With both linebackers coming on this blitz, he knows that there’s no hole defender.
Penix Jr. quickly ID’s man coverage with no hole defender, and whips his head around to hit London on this in-breaker. Just smooth, efficient movement in the pocket.
The Giants once again try to trick him with a mugged look, but this time they bring the nickel and drop the backside edge and linebacker. Penix sees the nickel blitzing and knows the dropping linebacker has to replace where the blitz came from, and throws it right where the dropping linebacker used to be. The quickness that he was processing things at was impressive on Sunday, and it’s a testament to the preparation he and the Falcons’ offensive braintrust put in.
Even the subtle understanding of leverage and spacing against these pressure looks was so impressive. With the motion on this play by Pitts widening out the nickel, he knows that the Giants are in zone coverage, but that would leave the backside mugged linebacker one-on-one with RB Bijan Robinson. He quickly gets this ball to Robinson and the Falcons almost score on the play. It’s small, but it’s these little things that the Falcons were missing that prohibited the offense from moving at an efficient level. Penix brought that efficiency, raising the floor, but also flashed the arm strength outside the numbers, elevating the ceiling.
Even this throw to Mooney is done with such good timing and pace. Penix uses the motion to ID man coverage, but this time there’s a hole defender. He holds that hole defender to the right long enough to open a window for Mooney, then whips back left and throws a dart. The simple, little things that he did in his debut was really impressive, and has me excited.
Of course, he won’t get the ability to face the Giants every week, but what Penix Jr. did on Sunday was very encouraging. The arm strength and play action stuff was fun, but it’s the pressure work he did that really got me hyped for where this can go. As the Falcons make a final push for postseason play, I’ll be curious to see how much more they give Penix Jr. in terms of downfield passing in order to ramp him up.
As far as debut grades go, I would give it an A. It was an efficient day that didn’t have many fireworks, but it’s that efficiency that is gonna keep the offense on schedule, while adding the explosives later on.