The Rap-Up: 12 Days of Tankmas

The Raptors enter the holiday season in prime position to open a big present (in late-June).

On the 12th day of Tankmas, (Masai) Ujiri gave to me...

12 healthy bodies (Excluding two-way players, the Raptors “only” have 3 players on the injury report)

11 boards from Poeltl (Jakob’s 11.0 rebounds per game ranks 7th)

10 wins for Duke (I’m totally not stalking Cooper Flagg)

9 makes from Harper (9 field goals made from Dylan Harper in his last game. I’m totally not stalking him either)

8 freebies from RJ (Barrett’s 8.3 free throw attempts per 100 possessions ranks 18th)

7 wins total (oddly, 1 on each day of the week)

6 rookies shining (Jonathan Mogbo and Jamison Battle are 2 of 6 first-year players with a positive VORP)

FIVE ONE-POSSESSION LOSSES

4 more City Jersey games (January 21, February 12, March 28, and April 9)

3 shots of OG

2 many Grizzlies

...and a close game at SBA!

December 23 @ New York Knicks

RJ Barrett missed last Thursday’s game with an illness but was scheduled to return on Sunday against the Rockets. An hour before tip-off, however, Barrett was announced as a late scratch (again due to illness). At first, that seemed odd because he wasn’t even listed on the injury report. But a quick glance at the schedule may have revealed an ulterior motive.

With Toronto on a home-and-road back-to-back, it’s not hard to see which game Barrett would prefer to play in. When the Knicks visited Scotiabank Arena two weeks ago, RJ dropped 30 points on his former team.

Last week, Karl-Anthony Towns made a triumphant return to Minnesota with his best game as a Knick. KAT finished with 32 points, 20 rebounds, and 6 assists while making all 5 of his three-point attempts and only missing two field goal attempts.

He followed that up with his worst game as a Knick scoring a season-low 11 points against the grossly undermanned New Orleans Pelicans.

Fun fact that may only interest me

3 shots of OG

• OG Anunoby is one of five players averaging at least 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. The other four players are MVP candidate, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, All-Star candidate, Jaren Jackson Jr., DPOY candidate, Tari Eason, and MIP candidate, Jalen Suggs.
• Anunoby is averaging 36.6 minutes per game (4th in the NBA), which is higher than any season he played in Toronto. He’s played more total minutes (1,025) this season than Scottie Barnes and Chris Boucher COMBINED.
• I miss OG. Period.

Prediction

While it’s safe to assume Barrett will have extra motivation to play well at Madison Square Garden, it’s no secret that RJ’s best basketball is typically played at home. His production and efficiency at home (28.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 5.5 assists on 52/40/82 shooting) falls off a cliff when he’s on the road (18.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 6.8 assists on 39/30/60).

The Raptors have lost the last 5 meetings with New York, so a Christmas miracle may not be in the cards. However, Toronto has been competitive in most games, including the five-point loss to New York on December 9th. Raptors fans may not be gifted a victory but Toronto should cover the +13.5 spread.

December 26 @ Memphis Grizzlies

Last season, Brandon Clarke played in 6 games total. Ja Morant played in 9 games. Marcus Smart played in 20 games. Somebody named Jordan Goodwin averaged 29.2 minutes.

This season, Clarke has played in 28 of 29 games. Morant has almost doubled the number of games he’s played. Smart has already played in 18 games. Goodwin is currently on the South Bay Lakers.

Memphis has leapfrogged from 13th in the West last year to 2nd this year!

So far in Toronto, Bruce Brown has not played any games. Immanuel Quickley has played in 3 games. Scottie Barnes has played in 15 games. Second-round draft pick, Jonathan Mogbo, is one of only two Raptors to play in every game this season (Ochai Agbaji is the other).

Toronto is currently 14th in the East. (Alright, I’ll stop)

Fun fact that may only interest me

2 many Grizzlies

Let’s go back to Goodwin and his average minutes last season. The number may not jump out, as 29.2 minutes would rank 6th on the current Raptors roster behind Barrett, Barnes, Gradey Dick, Jakob Poeltl, and Ochai Agbaji.

However, 29.2 minutes per game this season with this Grizzlies roster.....would lead the team!

While injuries ravaged last year’s squad, this year’s roster is reloaded with the expected starters AND a solid bench that used last year to develop. With so many solid players, Taylor Jenkins has had the luxury of spreading out playing time. Nobody on the current roster is averaging more than 28.0 minutes per game!

This offers a glimmer of hope for Toron....oh right, I said I’d stop.

Prediction

Toronto has won the last 6 meetings in Memphis. Suffice it to say, these teams look vastly different from the versions that contributed to those 6 Raptors victories. The last time Toronto lost in Memphis, Marc Gasol (single tear) hit the go-ahead free throws in the final minute, Kyle Lowry (two tears) missed a potential game-winning, buzzer-beating, three-pointer, while Vince Carter (all the tears) played 30+ minutes off the Grizzlies bench.

The Raptors are 1-12 on the road while the Grizzlies are 13-3 at home. Memphis will win this game, but Vegas still hasn’t clued in that Toronto consistently keeps these games close. Toronto covers the +12.5 spread.

December 29 vs Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have victories over the Celtics, Lakers, Knicks (x 2), and Cavaliers (x 2). Atlanta also has losses against the Spurs, Blazers, Bulls (x 2), and Wizards (x 2).

This is easily the most Jekyll-and-Hyde team in the league.

Last summer’s trade between the Pelicans and Hawks marked the end of the Dejounte Murray / Trae Young backcourt experiment. Trading away an All-Star in his prime is not ideal for any team but Atlanta made out like thieves in getting back Dyson Daniels.

The 21-year-old Aussie — aptly nicknamed The Great Barrier Thief — leads the NBA in steals, steals per game, steal percentage, steals per 36 minutes, and steals per 100 possessions. He also garnered Defensive Player of the Month honours in November.

Daniels isn’t too shabby on the offensive end too.

Fun fact that may only interest me

...and a close game at SBA!

The last 3 visits to Atlanta all ended with down-to-the-wire finishes:

• November 19, 2022 — Hawks win by two after AJ Griffin’s buzzer-beating, alley-oop layup in overtime.
• January 28, 2024 — Hawks win by one after Saddiq Bey’s buzzer-beating dunk.
• February 23, 2024 — Raps win by two. Trae Young hits a buzzer-beating three to ruin many parlays.

Yes, all of those games happened in Atlanta. But judging by Raptors games this season, we’re due for another nailbiter at Scotiabank Arena.

Prediction

The Hawks kick off a 6-game road trip in Toronto and will be playing the second night of a back-to-back. Meanwhile, the Raptors will have 2 days of rest while, hopefully, getting back an extra body or two in Poeltl, Brown, or Quickley.

If Toronto doesn’t have Poeltl back, the Raptors may be in for a long night as the Hawks are 4th in rim frequency. Assuming Jak is back, Toronto covers the +2.5 spread.

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Last Week’s Record: 1-2

Season Record: 12-17