Syria’s self-governing democratic north-east comes under attack with country in flux

After more than a decade of brutal civil war, it took Islamist militants just 11 days to sweep through Syria and topple the regime of Bashar al-Assad. The offensive, which has been driven by the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has forced many residents in western Syria to flee their homes in search of safety.

Meanwhile, others are celebrating the end of the Assad family’s five-decade rule. There are long queues of people and cars at Lebanon’s Masnaa border crossing as displaced people return to Syria, and there is also significant congestion at the border with Turkey.

According to Ali Yerlikaya, Turkey’s interior minister, the monthly average of Syrians crossing the border nearly doubled in a single day after Assad was overthrown.

While these events have been unfolding, the situation in a de facto self-governing region in the country’s north-east called the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (also known as Rojava) has not received much attention in the international media. Emboldened by the success of the rebel offensive, the SNA is looking to gain ground in the region.

The region’s governing body has called the fall of Assad a significant moment and expressed hopes for a new chapter in Syria. And Rojava’s powerful armed groups, the People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have both also expressed optimism about the fall the Assad regime.

These statements reflect a shared sense of hope and a commitment to constructive dialogue and collaboration in shaping Syria’s future. But Rojava, which has been a beacon of Kurdish self-administration and democratic governance since the early 2010s when several districts declared autonomy, is under significant threat both from internal and external forces.

Internally, there are tensions between the SDF and Arab tribes over political influence and Rojava’s abundant natural resources. In Manbij, a city to the west of the Euphrates river in northern Syria, there have been heavy clashes between the SDF and the SNA since the start of the rebel offensive. The SDF reported successfully repelling multiple attacks, but eventually withdrew from the city.

Offensives have also reportedly begun in Kobane, which is seen as the birthplace of the Rojava revolution and a symbol of Kurdish resistance. The town is the site of a key battleground where Kurdish fighters defeated Islamic State (IS) in 2014.

In other cities in the region, such as Raqqa, Tabqa and the key desert city of Deir ez-Zor, Arabs are demographically more numerous than Kurds. The future of cooperation between the two groups in these Arab-dominated areas remains uncertain.

Over the past week, SDF fighters have captured Deir ez-Zor and have taken control of Syria’s main border crossing with Iraq. More recently, however, there have been reports suggesting that HTS fighters are gaining control of the city.

Externally, Turkish military operations aimed at weakening Kurdish control of the region are a constant threat to Rojava. Turkey views the SDF and YPG as extensions of the banned Kurdistan Workers’ party and acts to prevent the Kurdish autonomous region along its border from gaining political status, which Turkey views as a direct threat to its national security.

So, in cooperation with allied jihadist groups, Turkey has carried out several operations in northern Syria in recent years to establish a “safe zone” to push back Kurdish forces. Turkish forces previously seized control of the city of Afrin in the north-western reaches of Syria in 2018, which was then under Rojava’s control.

These actions have drawn international criticism, with accusations of human rights violations and war crimes. Sweden, along with several other European states, halted its arms trade with Turkey in 2019. However, Sweden later lifted the restrictions during its application process to join Nato.

Turkey plays a crucial role as an ally to Syrian opposition movements, particularly the SNA. It served as a vital support system for the rebel forces during the recent offensive, as it has done consistently in the past.

Rojava’s future hinges on its ability to navigate these complex dynamics. Maintaining US support is critical, as American military presence provides a deterrent against Turkish aggression. However, the region must also address internal divisions and work towards greater Arab-Kurdish reconciliation to ensure long-term stability.

The path forward

Syria’s opposition groups are highly fragmented, and we do not yet know how power struggles will unfold among them. One thing we do know is that HTS and its leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani have historic links to al-Qaeda and IS. The group is now presented in a more moderate light, but many uncertainties remain.

Rojava, on the other hand, has fought fiercely against IS, protected Yazidis during the genocidal campaign against them and established humanitarian corridors for their evacuation, and aspires to implement a multi-ethnic society based on the principles of direct democracy, ecology and gender equality.

The Charter of the Social Contract of Rojava safeguards these principles and ensures the representation and rights of Kurds, Arabs, Yazidis, Syriac-Assyrians, Turkmens, Armenians and others.

It is perplexing that, despite the apparent “confidence” in Jolani – a figure who was once branded “the world’s most wanted terrorist” – as a moderate revolutionary leader, there is scant recognition of the democratic model Rojava has offered since its establishment.

Instead of receiving the support it merits, Rojava is being targeted, raising questions about the international community’s priorities and the prospects for sustainable peace in the region. The Syrian people, in all their diversity and voices, must determine ways to build a truly inclusive and democratic Syria where all people can coexist in peace.

Pinar Dinc is the principal investigator of the ECO-Syria project, which receives funding from the Strategic Research Area: The Middle East in the Contemporary World (MECW) at the Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies, Lund University, Sweden.