49ers at Bills: 5 keys to an upset in first Buffalo visit since 2016

BUFFALO, N.Y. – Deebo Samuel epitomizes the state of the 49ers as they unconvincingly strut into Sunday night’s game against the touchdown-favorite Bills. A former All-Pro, he seemingly takes one step forward, two steps back, and never the needed stride across the goal line, with a dose of health concerns and drama.

“We’re 5-6 right now, and we’re better than what our record shows,” Samuel said at his locker this week. “Yeah, our backs are against the wall, but we’re one game away from still winning our division.”

The Bills (9-2) are the ones able to win their respective division Sunday by beating the injury-laden, underachieving 49ers (5-6). That would be the Bills’ fifth straight AFC East crown.

For the 49ers to win a third straight NFC West title, they’ll have to overcome their 1-3 start in divisional play and overtake three challengers: the Seattle Seahawks (6-5 overall, 2-2 division), the Arizona Cardinals (6-5, 2-1) and the Los Angeles Rams (5-6, 2-1)

“Whether you’re 5-6 or 10-0, your mindset has got to be the same,” Christian McCaffrey said. “Every day you have a new challenge and it’s one game at a time. … But you’re never out of the fight.”

Here are five ways for the 49ers to beat Buffalo and avoid their first three-game losing streak this season:

1. ADJUST TO ELEMENTS

Thundersnow. Sounds like a great name for an inventive play call Kyle Shanahan devises to revive the 49ers’ offense. It also sounds like a potential sideshow to a winter storm dumping snow this weekend that’s not so novel to the Bills.

“We have some experience with it,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said. “We can’t control the weather. Only He can control the weather. It’s about how we respond to it.”

Shanahan said he won’t script an entirely different game plan for inclement weather, adding: “You’ve got to be ready for anything, just like you are with injuries. But we fully understand what the elements may be.”

The 49ers didn’t adjust so well as last Sunday’s conditions became slick in Green Bay. Several players lost their footing on what Christian McCaffrey described as a slippery, slow and super dense field. But unlike Lambeau Field’s grass that sent 49ers scurrying to change cleats and spikes, Buffalo offers a synthetic turf, and McCaffrey said that requires less footwear concerns.

“We live in California with great weather all the year around, so you can’t kind of prepare for something like that,” Samuel said. “You have to deal with it when you get there.”

2. SLOW JOSH ALLEN

Defensive end Leonard Floyd played last year for the Bills before joining the 49ers on a two-year pact. He’s enjoyed the specter of games in Buffalo, from unpredictable weather to a rabid fan base. He also keenly appreciates Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen, whom he refers to as a “juggernaut” that can go berserk with on-field versatility.

“He can do it all,” Floyd said of Allen, a native of Firebaugh in California’s Central Valley. “He can sit in the pocket and throw. He can tuck and run. He might slide, or he might truck you. He has a green light for everything. Going against an athlete like that is always fun.”

The 2020 49ers had no fun when Allen passed for four touchdowns against them in a 34-24 rout. Now in his seventh year, Allen has thrown 18 touchdowns this season (against five interceptions) to 11 different receivers, led by rookie Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins with three apiece.

“The difference I think with him this year is just being more effective,” 49ers defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen said. “He’s grown as far as being able to throw on time. If you give him something, he has the arm to be able to rip it, wherever that given throw is.”

3. DEFENSIVE REBOUND

The 49ers’ defense has more worries than Allen. Missed tackles galore. Penalties. Injuries. Red zone generosity. “It’s emphasizing running your feet, wrap, squeeze, drive for five,” Sorensen said.

After letting Green Bay score five touchdowns on five drives into the red zone, the 49ers’ defense now ranks fourth-worst in the NFL in such critical territory (67.6% touchdown rate). Opponents have run for 16 touchdowns, and here comes the Bills’ James Cook with 10.

“We’re getting hits on guys. It’s not like super easy,” Sorensen said. “…We’re like hitting a guy but it’s on the one or the two and you keep getting a yard and a yard.”

All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner is so committed to improving defensive efficiency that he’s played the past two months with a lower-leg fracture, but he hasn’t missed a snap since that leaving the Week 4 win over the Patriots.

4. HELP OUT QB

Brock Purdy is slated to return from a one-game absence, the first game he’s missed due to a health issue since mononucleosis delayed the start of his junior year at Perry High (Gilbert, Arizona) in 2016. Now comes the matter of how hindered he is by a two-week-old shoulder injury.

“Anytime you go through an injury and stuff like that, you want to know what’s going on with your body and how long something could be or if something’s serious or not, if you’re healthy or not,” Purdy said. “So all those things definitely ran through my mind. But glad everything was clean within the MRI and knowing that we had a plan to get ready for this week and I’m ready to go now.”

Still, Purdy will be playing behind backups at left tackle (Jaylon Moore, for Trent Wiliams) and left guard (Ben Bartch, for Aaron Banks).

And that leads to this season’s biggest injury concern: McCaffrey, the one running back to whom Shanahan has been fully devoted, three games into an Achilles-tendinitis comeback. McCaffrey fumbled on his last touch in Green Bay, he hasn’t broken a run longer than 13 yards, he’s yet to score, and he’s insistent that he’s improving despite what the stats and workload shows.

“If I’m out there, I’m full speed, I’m ready to go,” McCaffrey said.

The Bills are allowing 4.85 yards per run, ranking 30th in the NFL. Leading their defense are Dorian Williams (95 tackles), Gregory Rousseau (5 ½ sacks, 18 quarterback hits, 12 tackles for loss) and A.J. Epenesa (five sacks).

“My eyes tell me that he’s in a good spot physically and I think it’s just a matter of time before we get him going,” general manager John Lynch said on KNBR 680-AM. “But it takes more than Christian, it takes the entire unit being in synch. That’s what we have stive for this weekend.”

McCaffrey’s receiving abilities will make him an enticing option for short, quick throws that could be needed to counter the climate. Same goes with tight end George Kittle, now the 49ers’ No. 3 all-time leader in receptions (509) and this year’s No. 1 touchdown scorer (eight).

5. AVOID PENALTIES

In three of their past four games, the 49ers have been penalized nine times. They’ve been flagged 88 times to their opponents’ 55 penalties this season.

Shanahan did not ignore the issue after their nine penalties last game that included three false starts by offensive linemen, three holding penalties on special teams, and back-to-back calls against their defense for having 12 men on the field. “Those are the ones that we’ve got to fix,” Shanahan said.

Lynch called them “careless penalties,” so the 49ers better line up right and not jump the snap in a daunting environment. They last visited in October 2016, a 45-16 loss in Colin Kaepernick’s final season debut and in a game they were 7 ½-point underdogs. The 49ers are 7-point underdogs this game, according to a consensus of sportsbooks via VegasInsider.com. That matches their biggest mark since a 2020 regular-season finale against Seattle (a 26-23 loss).