Longtime Tesla investor Ross Gerber on why Musk's ties to Trump might not boost the EV maker
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- Tesla investor Ross Gerber doesn't think Elon Musk's ties to Donald Trump will benefit the EV maker.
- The longtime Tesla bull thinks the car company has a number of problems to sort through.
- Gerber says Tesla stock should be trading around $200, about 40% lower than current levels.
Elon Musk spent immense money and energy helping Donald Trump retake the White House, but the Tesla CEO's new political influence may not do much to boost the fortunes of his carmaker, one of the company's longtime backers said.
Ross Gerber, a Tesla bull and the president of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management, thinks the electric vehicle maker faces big challenges ahead, even as optimism about Musk's ties to Trump has excited investors and sparked a sharp rally in Tesla stock since the election.
Traders are hopeful that Musk's close ties to the president-elect — which ultimately landed the Tesla CEO a new government role — could sway important policy decisions in favor of Tesla.
But that doesn't solve the problems Tesla has been struggling with for years, Gerber said, pointing to concerns surrounding the success of Tesla's car business, and whether its new ride-hailing platform or artificial intelligence projects will amount to much.
In Gerber's view, Tesla shares should be trading around $200, implying 40% downside from the stock's closing price of $338.23 on Tuesday.
Gerber said his fund, which began cutting its stake in Tesla in late 2023, continues to sell the stock in small amounts, keeping Tesla's concentration in its portfolio to just 2%. The fund sold nearly 16,000 shares in the third quarter, though the total value of its remaining stake rose to $71 million, regulatory filings show.
"We're still selling it," Gerber told Business Insider. "I used to have a 10%, 12%, even 20% stake in Tesla at some point in my life where it was like, Tesla was taking us to the moon kind of thing. And I just think its best days are behind it."
It's worth noting that Tesla handily beat third-quarter earnings estimates, soothing some investor concerns after a tough start to the year. Countering Gerber's views, some also see Musk's new political influence as a big win for his companies.
"The biggest winner from a Trump White House remains Tesla and Musk which made a strategic big bet on Trump that will pay major dividends for years to come," Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives wrote following the election.
Skeptical of the tech
Gerber believes Tesla's technology has plateaued in recent years, and Musk's ties to Washington won't help that. He pointed to issues with Tesla's full self-driving technology, which he's been using nearly every day for the last three years.
"So the ultimate reality for full self-driving is it doesn't work, and the precision isn't good. And vision-only systems have flaws that I don't think Elon wants to admit."
Gerber thinks the tech issues will persist, partly because Musk looks poised to devote more of his time to his role in the Department of Government Efficiency.
Beginning with the acquisition of X, Gerber, in recent years, has been a vocal critic of what he sees as Musk's neglect of his core companies, primarily Tesla.
"He doesn't work at Tesla. I mean, let's be real, "Gerber said. We all know where Elon is right now, and he's at Mar-a-Lago. So he hasn't worked at Tesla for a long time."
Gerber is also concerned about some of the projects within the company. He pointed to Tesla's ride-hailing platform, which will be competing with more established companies like Uber and Waymo.
"Why does it deserve this premium?" he said of the stock. "I get that Elon is now vice president of the United States, but that doesn't necessarily help Tesla."
Trump's transition team has signaled that it would end the $7,500 tax credit for EVs—a move that Musk supports—but even that's unlikely to be a bullish catalyst for the company, Gerber said.
Musk has said that repealing the tax credit would be more harmful to Tesla's rivals, but Gerber's firm has estimated that Tesla sales could drop around 25% if the tax credit was no longer available. That would be "devastating" to Tesla's business, he said, given that the company has already slashed prices on some of its models in the face of uncertain EV demand in recent years.
"If the EV tax credit goes, that would be an extreme negative I would have to react to," Gerber said, adding that it was his biggest concern at the moment.
Previously, Gerber told BI he would consider completely closing his position in Tesla by the end of the year if its business didn't improve, or if Musk didn't refocus his attention on his companies. Gerber has since adjusted his view and said he would continue to hold Tesla as a small investment in his portfolio, mostly out of bullishness on EVs in general.
"Certainly if you want to get out of Tesla, it's a great opportunity," Gerber said, later adding that he was in "wait-and-see" mode. "And if you're a buyer of Tesla, boy, you're paying a lot for hope."
Tesla did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.