Cheat Sheet: Bills succeed circling wagons after byes
Best Bet
49ERS at BILLS
Time: 7:20 p.m., NBC 5.
Line: Bills by 7.
Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bills 9-2/7-4; 49ers 5-6/4-7.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid’s 22-4 record in the game after the bye is one of the more impressive accomplishments on his stellar résumé as an NFL head coach. Even before Patrick Mahomes transformed Reid from a really good coach who couldn’t win the big one into one of the best coaches in NFL history, Reid still was 16-3 in the game after the bye. Give him a week to prepare, and he’s tough to beat.
But the Bills’ Sean McDermott is no slouch in that department. He’s 7-0 after the bye in his seven seasons as an NFL head coach (5-2-1 against the spread). That includes a 20-17 victory over Reid and the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium last season. Those two should face each other when they’re both coming off a bye to settle the matter.
That’s actually not the only category where McDermott bests Reid. He’s also 4-1 against Reid in the regular season — 3-0 at Arrowhead (2021, 2022 and 2023). That includes a convincing 30-21 victory over the Chiefs at Highmark Stadium in Week 11 heading into the bye.
It’s in the playoffs where the Bills pay the price for trading the No. 10 overall pick in the 2017 draft to the Chiefs that allowed them to draft Mahomes. The Bills are 0-3 against the Chiefs in the postseason, including a 27-24 loss at home last season.
The Bills (9-2) are still one game behind the Chiefs (10-1) in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they would win a tiebreaker if they can match the Chiefs’ record.
After trading Stefon Diggs and losing clutch performer Gabe Davis in free agency, it looked like the Bills’ Super Bowl window was closing, even with Josh Allen in his prime at 27. But the Bills are picking up steam with six consecutive victories (5-1 ATS). They’ve scored 30 or more points in the last five.
They come off the bye as seven-point favorites against the 49ers, who are 5-6 after losing 38-10 to the Packers, with Brandon Allen starting for the injured Brock Purdy (shoulder).
That’s a big number against the 49ers, even at home. But late-season byes are valuable to good teams. Since 2020, favorites of six or more points coming off a bye in Week 12 or later are 14-0 straight up, 11-3 against the spread.
Pick: Bills 24, 49ers 16.
Top plays
STEELERS at BENGALS
Time: Noon, CBS 2.
Line: Bengals by 3.
Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Steelers 8-3/8-3; Bengals 4-7/6-5.
Outlook: The Bengals are coming off a bye, but the Steelers are also on long rest after playing on Thursday night in
Week 12 — and motivated to respond after a last-minute, 24-19 loss to the Browns in the snow in Cleveland that snapped a five-game skid. Bengals have lost three of their last four, beating only the Raiders.
Pick: Steelers 23, Bengals 21.
TEXANS at JAGUARS
Time: Noon.
Line: Texans by 4.
Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Texans 7-5/5-6-1; Jaguars 2-9/6-5.
Outlook: The Jaguars have nothing to play for but the No. 1 overall pick (they currently have it), but they’ve played almost everyone tough, with six of their losses by five points or fewer (including losses to the Vikings, Eagles, Packers and these Texans on the road). The Texans have a lot to prove after losing to the Titans.
Pick: Texans 23, Jaguars 17.
RAMS at SAINTS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: Rams by 2½.
Total: 49.
Records (overall/ATS): Rams 5-6/4-7; Saints 4-7/5-6.
Outlook: The Saints have been impressive under interim coach Darren Rizzi, with wins over the Falcons and Browns before the bye. But the Rams figure to respond after getting run over by Saquon Barkley (255 yards, 2 TDs) in a 37-20 loss to the Eagles. Matthew Stafford’s connection with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp is warming up.
Pick: Rams 31, Saints 27.
Other picks
RAIDERS at CHIEFS
Time: 2 p.m. Friday, Prime Video.
Line: Chiefs by 13. Total: 42½.
Records (overall/ATS): Raiders 2-9/4-7; Chiefs 10-1/5-6.
Outlook: The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes have been squeaking by all season, but they were still 4-2-1 ATS in their 7-0 start. Now they’re 0-5 ATS in their last five games, despite winning four, and their slip seems to be showing. They lost 30-21 to the Bills and beat the lowly Panthers on a last-second field goal. They’re still the pick in any playoff situation, but they’re straddling a fine line.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 17.
CHARGERS at FALCONS
Time: Noon.
Line: Chargers by 1. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Chargers 7-4/7-4; Falcons 6-5/5-6.
Outlook: The Chargers are coming off a 30-23 loss to the Ravens in the Harbaugh Bowl, but Jim Harbaugh’s crew has responded well after each of its previous three losses (2-0-1 ATS), including a 17-10 loss to the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs at Arrowhead — a game that was tied in the fourth quarter. The Falcons lost road games to the Saints and Broncos before their bye week.
Pick: Falcons 22, Chargers 19.
SEAHAWKS at JETS
Time: Noon.
Line: Seahawks by 2. Total: 42½.
Records (overall/ATS): Seahawks 6-5/4-6-1; Jets 3-8/3-8.
Outlook: After an uncharacteristic spate of interceptions, Aaron Rodgers has been showing a semblance of his old self recently — 102.9 passer rating (7 TDs, 0 INTs) — but the Jets are still 1-3 SU/ATS in that span. In fact, Rodgers is 14-18 SU/12-20 ATS in his last 21 complete games going back to 2021 with the Packers. At 41, he might have a vintage performance in him, but who knows when that will happen?
Pick: Seahawks 17, Jets 13.
COLTS at PATRIOTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Colts by 2½. Total: 42½.
Records (overall/ATS): Colts 5-7/8-4; Patriots 3-9/4-7-1.
Outlook: The Patriots have lost two straight (0-2 ATS) since fooling themselves into thinking they were getting somewhere in a 19-3 upset of the Bears in Week 10. The Colts were a cover machine through eight weeks (4-4 SU/6-1-1 ATS) but are 1-3 SU/ATS in their last four, with skittish QB Anthony Richardson back for the last two. Colts still have long-shot playoff hopes, for whatever that’s worth.
Pick: Colts 23, Patriots 20 (OT).
CARDINALS at VIKINGS
Time: Noon, Fox 32.
Line: Vikings by 3½. Total: 45.
Records (overall/ATS): Cardinals 6-5/7-4; Vikings 9-2/7-3-1.
Outlook: Both teams need to bounce back — the Cardinals from a 16-6 loss to the Seahawks that ended a five-game winning streak; the Vikings from a near disaster in a 30-27 overtime victory against the Bears.
Pick: Vikings 26, Cardinals 20.
TITANS at COMMANDERS
Time: Noon.
Line: Commanders by 5½. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Titans 3-8/2-9; Commanders 7-5/7-4-1.
Outlook: The Titans were 2-8 SU/1-9 ATS when they upset the Texans 32-27 last week at NRG Stadium. They’re more likely to revert to form here. But the Commanders have lost three straight (0-3 ATS), so tread lightly.
Pick: Commanders 24, Titans 17.
BUCCANEERS at PANTHERS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: Buccaneers by 6. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Buccaneers 5-6/7-4; Panthers 3-8/4-7.
Outlook: You have to like the way beleaguered 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young responded to the challenge vs. Patrick Mahomes with his best performance of the season — 263 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs for a 92.9 rating in a 30-27 loss.
Pick: Buccaneers 30, Panthers 23.
EAGLES at RAVENS
Time: 3:25 p.m., CBS 2.
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 51.
Records (overall/ATS): Eagles 9-2/7-4; Ravens 8-4/6-5-1.
Outlook: Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are exciting to watch, but with a defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in points (23rd) and yards (24th), they get more love as Super Bowl contenders than they deserve.
Pick: Eagles 27, Ravens 26.
BROWNS at BRONCOS
Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN.
Line: Broncos by 5½. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Broncos 7-5/9-3; Browns 3-8/4-7.
Outlook: Sean Payton’s Broncos have momentum — 7-3 SU/8-2 ATS since an 0-2 start (losing to the Chargers, Ravens and Chiefs) — and are coming off a well-timed bye. Browns also are on long rest after playing on Thursday night. They’re tricky.
Pick: Broncos 23, Browns 16.