Free Agent Profile: Matthew Boyd, SP
Matthew Boyd, SP
Position: SP B/T: L/L
Age: 33 (2/2/1991)
2024 Traditional Stats: 8 G (8 GS), 39 2/3 IP, 2-2, 2.72 ERA, 1.134 WHIP, 46 SO, 13 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 151 ERA+, 27.7 SO%, 7.8 BB%, 3.10 xERA, 3.29 FIP, 3.89 xFIP, 0.9 fWAR
Rundown
Matthew Boyd has carved out a nice career for himself in Major League Baseball. Playing parts of 10 seasons, he’s spent time with five big league organizations including two stints with the Tigers. His first stint in Detroit lasted from 2015 through 2021, a period where he was nothing more than a backend-of-the-rotation innings eater.
His best year during this stretch was his final year in Detroit in 2021, following a 2020 season in which he posted the league’s worst ERA at 6.71. Boyd only made 15 starts in 2021, dealing with multiple injuries, but he managed a 3.89 ERA. He signed his free agent contract with the Giants prior to the 2022 season but never pitched for them due to recovery from injury. He was traded midseason to the Mariners before spending 2023 back with the Tigers and the second half of 2024 with the Guardians.
Boyd missed the first half of the season due to recovery from Tommy John surgery. He only pitched in eight games in Cleveland, but it was one of the better stretches of his career, as demonstrated by his 2.72 ERA. He allowed three or fewer runs in each of his starts and totaled three quality starts.
The lefty also pitched well in the postseason, his first true taste of October after having thrown just eight postseason pitches in his career prior to 2024. Boyd started three games and totaled 11 2/3 innings, allowing just one run (0.77 ERA) with 14 strikeouts. Boyd made two starts against the red-hot Tigers and one against the eventual AL champion Yankees, shutting down his opponent in all three games.
Boyd’s peripheral numbers in 2024 coincide with his flashy regular season and postseason ERAs. He forced a high swing-and-miss rate and strikeout rate while having a league-average chase rate, walk rate, and hard-hit rate. Boyd deploys a five-pitch mix including a four-seamer (92 mph), changeup (81 mph), slider (80 mph), sinker (92 mph), and curveball (74 mph).
Boyd is now a free agent once again looking for his next stop after a brief, yet promising 2024 campaign. The 33-year-old will certainly have suitors with many teams looking for rotation help.
Contract
MLB Trade Rumors lists Boyd as their 23rd-ranked free agent and predicts that he will sign a two-year, $25 million contract in free agency. One of their four staff members predicts he will sign with the Mets. This contract is consistent with what a no. 4 or no. 5 starter commands nowadays, similar to the two-year, $26 million deal the Mets and Jose Quintana agreed on before 2023 to be the team’s no. 4 starter.
Recommendation
Interestingly enough, Boyd would likely be Quintana’s replacement in a potential deal with the Mets. He’s similar to Quintana in that he’s an aging, soft-tossing lefty pitcher who’s been around for a long time, but Boyd doesn’t possess the ceiling that Quintana does. Quintana has been a no. 1 starter at points in his career. Boyd hasn’t. Quintana carried the Mets’ rotation down the stretch in 2024 and was one of the best pitchers in the game during that span. You probably couldn’t expect Boyd to have the same kind of dominance.
Boyd also possesses some major red flags. He has a career 4.85 ERA in almost 1,000 innings. He hasn’t pitched over 80 innings in a season since 2019 with all of his injuries and subsequent recovery times. And he’s only ever pitched in small markets. There’s no saying how he’d be able to perform in New York.
That said, though, he clearly experienced a revival of sorts in Cleveland, even if his stint was as brief as it was. Maybe there’s a chance he unlocked something that will allow him to perform above expectations for a few more years.
Unfortunately, that’s not enough to feel comfortable signing an injury-prone pitcher who hasn’t shown he can be consistently reliable and effective. The Mets have work to do on their rotation, but David Stearns and company might look elsewhere for pitchers who have proven their reliability to a greater extent.
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