Do Republicans Have a Problem in Nebraska?
The 2024 General election is less than a month away, meaning campaigns nationwide have zero hours. Republicans are seeing momentum in their favor, as the presidential election is a statistical tie, and polling shows Republicans poised to retake the U.S. Senate. Surprisingly, the state of Nebraska could foil the Republicans’ plan to take back the upper chamber despite a Democrat not running for Senate.
“This race is more competitive than it should be,” said political science professor Randy Adkins.
Incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer is fighting off a challenge from Union boss Dan Osborn, an independent candidate with populist overtones. His campaign is bringing in millions of dollars from outside political PACS, forcing the NRSC to spend half a million dollars on campaign advertisements in a safe state rather than spend money in swing states to take back the majority in the Senate.
The polling for the race is varied, adding an element of suspense to the campaign. The latest poll from Impact Research shows Osborn with a slim lead over Fischer, 48 percent to 46 percent. By contrast, an internal poll from the Fischer campaign shows her ahead of Osborn by 48 percent to 42 percent, but 10 percent are still unsure. “This race is more competitive than it should be,” said political science professor Randy Adkins of the University of Nebraska-Omaha. He says an independent taking on a Republican is a “novel phenomenon” in today’s politics.
The last time Nebraska voters elected a U.S. Senator who was not a Republican was the 2006 midterm with a deeply unpopular Republican President in George W. Bush. In 2012, Deb Fischer defeated former Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey by 12 points and then won reelection in 2018 by nearly 20 points. Democrats did not bother to recruit a candidate this cycle, which opened the door for an independent candidacy.
For Nebraskans, Dan Osborn became a household name when he led a union workers’ strike against Omaha’s Kellogg plant in 2021. He gained national notoriety when he organized a strike as president of the local Bakery, Confectionary, Tobacco Workers, and Grain Millers International Union. With the strike ending after two months and workers agreeing on a new contract, National Democrats, including President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders, took notice.
Since his run for the Senate, Osborn has distanced himself from both Republicans and Democrats and has not received any backing from the DSCC or Nebraska Democrats. His refusal to take corporate handouts is a significant aspect of his campaign, as it aligns with his pro-union stance. Even though he has refused to take corporate handouts, Osborn is receiving campaign contributions from pro-union organizations as well as Soros-linked dark money organizations.
To their credit, the Fischer campaign is working to portray Mr. Osborn as a Democrat pretending to be an Independent with his liberal stances on abortion, amnesty for illegal immigrants, and vowing to eliminate the Senate filibuster. The campaign just recently released a TV ad portraying Osborn as a “Trojan Horse” as his win would likely mean Democrats remain in control of the Senate.
Senator Fischer is taking this Senate race seriously. To help blunt Mr. Osborn’s momentum, she came out with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, who referred to Osborn as a “Bernie Sanders Democrat” who does not stand for Nebraska values. “This move is significant considering Trump won Nebraska in 2020 by 19 points.
What is even more important for Republicans in Nebraska is that Donald Trump will win the Great Plains state again, and it will be a landslide. Three state-wide polls from both campaigns show Trump ahead by 20 points. Republicans outnumber Democrats by a 2-1 margin in the state, and no GOP senator lost a race where Trump prevailed in the state for the past two election cycles.
Senator Pete Ricketts is running in a special election to finish out Ben Sasse’s Senate term since he left office. Ricketts is beating his opponent by the same margin as Trump, so it doesn’t add up to vote for Trump and Ricketts and then vote for a candidate who is a Bernie Sanders admirer.
While Osborn’s campaign has appealed to Nebraska’s blue-collar, independent voters, he has not said who he would caucus with in the Senate. It is essential for an independent to caucus with one of the two main parties in order to get committee assignments, and every independent Senator currently caucuses with the Democrats.
By contrast, Senator Fischer has delivered results for the people of Nebraska through appropriations and infrastructure as a member of the Armed Services and Agriculture committees. She was a reliable voter during Trump’s first term in office and was described as a “workhorse” during her two terms in Washington. Republicans will not need to worry about this race as long as they hammer out the message that Dan Osborn is too liberal for Nebraska.
READ MORE from Alex Adkins:
Montana Might Be the Only Flip for Senate Republicans
In Defense of Our Defense: Senator Wicker’s Plan
The post Do Republicans Have a Problem in Nebraska? appeared first on The American Spectator | USA News and Politics.