Julian now a typhoon, and still likely to gain more strength

MANILA, Philippines – Julian (Krathon) strengthened from a severe tropical storm into a typhoon early Sunday afternoon, September 29, while remaining east of Cagayan province.

In its 2 pm bulletin on Sunday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Julian now has maximum sustained winds of 120 kilometers per hour from the previous 110 km/h. Its gustiness is still up to 135 km/h.

Julian is expected to intensify further in the next 24 to 36 hours as it heads for the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area.

PAGASA is not ruling out super typhoon status for Julian, “considering the recent trend in its intensification.”

The typhoon was last spotted 275 kilometers east of Calayan, Cagayan, as of 1 pm on Sunday. It accelerated, moving north northwest at 15 km/h after its slow pace in the morning.

Julian is projected to move generally west northwest to northwest toward the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area from Sunday to Tuesday morning, October 1, then north to north northeast over the waters east of Taiwan beginning Tuesday afternoon. Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

By Monday, September 30, Julian is “highly likely” to make landfall in Batanes and/or Babuyan Islands, or pass very close to these areas.

With Julian now a typhoon, PAGASA placed more areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 2 pm on Sunday.

Signal No. 3

Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property

• northeastern part of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Island)

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• Batanes
• mainland Cagayan
• rest of Babuyan Islands (Camiguin Island, Calayan Island, Dalupiri Island, Fuga Island)
• Apayao
• northern and central parts of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams, Dumalneg, Bangui, Burgos, Pasuquin, Vintar, Carasi, Nueva Era, Solsona, Piddig, Dingras, Sarrat, San Nicolas, Laoag City, Bacarra)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• rest of Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• northern part of La Union (Santol, Sudipen, Bangar, Luna, Balaoan, San Gabriel, Bacnotan)
• Abra
• Kalinga
• Ifugao
• Mountain Province
• northern and central parts of Benguet (Bakun, Mankayan, Buguias, Kabayan, Atok, Kibungan, Bokod, Kapangan)
• Isabela
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Quirino
• northern and central parts of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao)

The highest tropical cyclone wind signal due to Julian could be Signal No. 4.

PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the typhoon may bring strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:

Sunday, September 29

• Aurora, Calabarzon, Romblon, Bicol

Monday, September 30

• Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Quezon, Romblon, Bicol

The weather bureau also released an updated rainfall forecast for Julian at 2 pm on Sunday, as rain in Ilocos Norte is expected to worsen to intense to torrential levels. Northern Luzon must still watch out for floods and landslides.

Sunday afternoon, September 29, to Monday afternoon, September 30

• Intense to torrential rain (above 200 millimeters): Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Sur, Abra
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Apayao, La Union, Mountain Province, Benguet

Monday afternoon, September 30, to Tuesday afternoon, October 1

• Intense to torrential rain (above 200 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): mainland Cagayan, Apayao, La Union, Mountain Province, Benguet

Tuesday afternoon, October 1, to Wednesday afternoon, October 2

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra

PAGASA earlier said scattered rain and thunderstorms due to Julian may also hit the rest of Northern Luzon, as well as Central Luzon and Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes on Sunday.

The rest of Luzon, including Metro Manila, could have isolated rain showers or thunderstorms from the trough or extension of the typhoon.

The Visayas and Mindanao, not affected by Julian, will continue to have generally fair weather. They may just see localized thunderstorms on Sunday.

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In the next 24 hours, very rough sea conditions will continue in the seaboards of Batanes (waves up to 9 meters high) and the seaboards of Babuyan Islands (waves up to 7 meters high). PAGASA said travel is risky for most types of vessels.

Rough sea conditions will persist in the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan and the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 4.5 meters high), the remaining seaboard of Cagayan and the seaboard of Isabela (waves up to 3.5 meters high), and the seaboard of the northern part of Aurora (waves up to 3 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.

Moderate sea conditions are seen in the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.

Julian, the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024 and sixth tropical cyclone for September alone, could exit PAR on Thursday, October 3.

The other tropical cyclone that PAGASA has been monitoring, the tropical storm with the international name Jebi, is not expected to enter PAR. – Rappler.com