Oscar odds update: Saoirse Ronan makes savvy category switch
At this point, Gold Derby’s ever-growing community of 2025 Oscars predictors are collectively not on board with the idea of four-time acting nominee Saoirse Ronan earning recognition for her work in “Blitz” or “The Outrun.” However, that could soon change given that, as of last weekend, she is no longer competing against herself for a Best Actress mention but rather vying for separate lead and supporting slots. In the few days since her “Blitz” performance was rebranded as featured, she has ascended to seventh place in that race and become a predicted dual nominee in the eyes of our editors and top 24 users.
Ronan’s apparently wise move – which has impacted the chances of supporting hopefuls like Lady Gaga (“Joker: Folie à Deux”) and Joan Chen (“Dìdi”) – coincides with the long-awaited confirmation that Natasha Lyonne (“His Three Daughters”) will be competing as her film’s sole lead. Although our odds presently show that she was faring better as a supporting candidate, there is plenty of time for her lead standing to improve, especially as her movie reaches more viewers following its September 20 Netflix premiere.
Comparing our current combined predictions to where they stood a week ago, the biggest change concerns Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) replacing Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) as the Best Actor frontrunner. Although our editors effectively led that charge despite resistance from the top 24 and all-star 24 groups, they also bumped “Conclave” from the top of their Best Picture list in favor of “Emilia Pérez” and have chosen to back Ronan’s supporting candidacy at the expense of Fiennes’s castmate, Isabella Rossellini.
Also worth noting is the sudden withdrawal of reigning TIFF People’s Choice Award winner “The Life of Chuck” from all eligible categories following its acquisition by Neon for summer 2025 distribution. Although it had not yet cracked our combined predictions, the top 24 and all-star 24 users expected it to land a Best Picture bid, while the former group were also anticipating nominations for Best Supporting Actor (Mark Hamill) and Best Adapted Screenplay.
Other contenders who rose within the ranks over the past week include “The Brutalist” actors Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones and their director, Brady Corbet, “Emilia Pérez” helmer Jacques Audiard, and “Gladiator II” supporting player Denzel Washington. Among the bold consensus deviations worth keeping an eye on are the inclusion of “The Room Next Door” on the editors’ Best Picture list and the top 24 users’ persistent backing of “Emilia Pérez” supporting actress Selena Gomez.
Be on the lookout for new state of the Oscars race updates every Friday leading up to the nominations announcement on January 17.
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