‘A Joke': Bibi Adviser Scoffs at Biden Ceasefire Proposal and Lays Out What Would Prevent All-Out War in Lebanon

TEL AVIV—Israel on Thursday rejected a proposal, led by the Biden-Harris administration and France, for a ceasefire with the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah.

Upon landing in New York City to address the U.N. General Assembly, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the military would keep hitting Hezbollah with "full force, and we will not stop until we achieve all our goals, first and foremost returning the residents of the north safely to their homes."

In an interview with the Washington Free Beacon, Amir Avivi, an Israeli reserve brigadier general who has advised Netanyahu throughout the war, pushed back on the White House’s claims that the prime minister had agreed to the ceasefire before it was announced. Avivi said Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders have long agreed that any ceasefire with Hezbollah must involve the Lebanese group’s withdrawal from Israel’s northern border, in line with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the previous Lebanon war in 2006. 

As recently as Wednesday, Israeli media reported that Israeli officials saw "no feasibility for a settlement right now" and that Netanyahu told ministers in a security consultation that "any negotiations will only be held under fire."

Anyway, Avivi said of the proposal: "It’s stupid. It's irrelevant. It's a joke."

Israel’s stunning bombing campaign in Lebanon over the past week has left Hezbollah fearing for its survival. For the first time since Hezbollah began bombarding northern Israel with rockets and missiles on a daily basis nearly a year ago, the group’s leaders appear to be considering meeting Israel’s demand for a withdrawal.

"We shocked the enemy, and they want us to stop fighting for 21 days—for what, to let the enemy regroup?" he said. "What kind of idea is this?"

Avivi, the head of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, a group of hawkish military reservists, has been at the forefront of Israeli strategic thinking. In his book No Retreat, which was published in English earlier this month and in Hebrew several months before Hamas’s Oct. 7 terror attack on Israel, he warned that the Iran-backed Palestinian terror group was not deterred and called for Israel to conquer Gaza. 

The interview was edited for length and clarity. 

Washington Free Beacon: You told me last week that Israel is about to invade Lebanon. Do you still think so?

Amir Avivi: I said since Oct. 7 that war in the north is imminent. But I think now, for the first time, there is a chance for a different outcome. I did not anticipate the level of destruction [that Israeli intelligence and air power caused] to the Hezbollah side. Israel is managing to target all the leadership of Hezbollah [in airstrikes] and of course the beeper and walkie-talkie attacks. 

There is also a big question about all the other forces in Lebanon: the Druze, the Christians, the Maronites, the Sunnis. They might take advantage of Hezbollah’s weakness and join [Israel in attacking the group]. For them, it would be an historic opportunity to get rid of Hezbollah and the Iranians. 

All this might bring Hezbollah to say, "Maybe it’s better to find an exit for the moment, before we are completely destroyed, and later on we can see how we recover."

WFB: What would it look like for Hezbollah to exit the war?

AA: All they need to do is announce that they are stopping the shooting and removing their forces from south Lebanon. They know that Israel cannot accept their presence in south Lebanon. So all they have to do is to adhere to Resolution 1701. Withdraw.

Then, it’s war over. Imagine the photos all over the world of Hezbollah terrorists dismantling everything and moving out of south Lebanon. 

And the Lebanese would not allow Hezbollah back [into south Lebanon] easily. Lebanon does not want to find itself again and again in these kinds of wars. There are already half a million people displaced in Lebanon.

WFB: Other than relying on the Lebanese, how would Israel prevent Hezbollah from rearming and returning to the border?

AA: It would be an open-ended [military] campaign. Israel would say, "We’re not signing anything. Anyway, you have to adhere to Resolution 1701. If we see you guys trying to come back or trying to rearm, we will kill you, we will kill your leaders. We are not going to have this anymore."

WFB: Why wasn’t Israel doing that before Oct. 7?

AA: I think that we didn't want a war. Now, we're not afraid of a war. That’s the reason they’re so afraid, they know that Israel now wants war, and this is deterring them a lot. When Israel says, "We don’t care, we want to fight, whatever the cost is," this creates pressure.

WFB: So how likely is it that Hezbollah will back down, and we avoid full-scale war in Lebanon?

AA: We can’t know. The big decisions are going to be made in Tehran going forward, which makes it very hard for us to predict. 

The Iranians might try to end the war because if Hezbollah and Hamas are destroyed, Iran will be completely exposed to [attack by] Israel. That would be a very dangerous situation for them. But, on the other hand, Hezbollah might shoot 100 missiles at Tel Aviv tomorrow. 

Anyway, they have to make a decision now because Israel is attacking fiercely. Every day that they wait and don't decide, Hezbollah is losing more and more capabilities and commanders.

WFB: If Hezbollah does not withdraw, are you still confident Israel will go ahead with an invasion of Lebanon?

AA: Yes. During the war, there were differences between the defense minister, the prime minister, and the army. But I can tell you that all along there was one thing everyone agreed on: To bring back our citizens to the north, there must be no Hezbollah in south Lebanon, and if they don’t agree to withdraw, then we’ll do a ground incursion.

WFB: I assume you saw the U.S.-France-led ceasefire proposal, which Israeli leaders seemed to reject on Thursday. Does it change anything?

AA: It’s stupid. It's irrelevant. It's a joke. Each time we're on the verge of winning, the [Biden] administration thinks how to prevent us from victory. I don't understand this kind of policy.

We shocked the enemy, and they want us to stop fighting for 21 days—for what, to let the enemy regroup? What kind of idea is this?

Also, the whole idea [for Israel] is to break the connection between a ceasefire in Lebanon and a ceasefire in Gaza [that Hezbollah has insisted on]. They attacked us unprovoked to defend Hamas, and all along they were saying, we are not going to stop shooting until you retreat from Gaza. And now the [Biden administration] and the French come and connect the two fronts again.

WFB: What kind of toll would full-scale war with Hezbollah take on Israel?

AA: We might see some events that are not very pleasant. But overall we are going to destroy them, and we will be decisive.

WFB: What about on the home front, and particularly here in Tel Aviv? 

AA: For years, we were told how devastating war with Hezbollah would be. It’s not going to be devastating. It’s going to be challenging. Some buildings in Tel Aviv will get hit. But Israel has a lot of intelligence of the whereabouts of all their capabilities, and you see how penetrated they are.

WFB: Some in Israel, including reportedly in the security establishment, doubt the military can defeat Hamas and Hezbollah at the same time. What do you think?

AA: We are continuing to destroy Hamas even as we speak. Does [a ground invasion of Lebanon] slow down the pace at which Hamas is destroyed? Yes. But Hamas is already dismantled as a military entity. Look, they cannot even shoot one rocket. I just saw a photo of an Egged bus with Israeli soldiers driving through Gaza—a civilian bus. This is Gaza at the moment.

WFB: You have recommended that Israel set up a system in Gaza similar to the West Bank—with indefinite military control and temporary civilian control until local governance can be established. Should Israel also occupy south Lebanon following a ground incursion?

AA: Yes. We have to push Hezbollah out of south Lebanon and destroy all the infrastructure and stay there.

WFB: Why do you say Israel must occupy south Lebanon following an invasion but not necessarily if Hezbollah withdraws from the area voluntarily?

AA: If they show continuous motivation to go back [to south Lebanon], we need to stay. If they withdraw willingly, it’s a different scenario, and still we have to find a solution for international forces, and not UNIFIL, to fill the void. I don’t have a good answer for how to prevent Hezbollah from coming back to south Lebanon. It’s complicated. There is no simple solution. 

WFB: Iran threatened on Thursday to back Lebanon by "all means" if fighting between Israel and Lebanon continues to escalate. How would Israel deal with Iran’s direct involvement in the war?

AA: Iran is months away from becoming a nuclear power, and we cannot allow that to happen. I think we have an historic opportunity to deal with Iran. There is a whole coalition [of moderate Sunni states] in the Middle East [that opposes Iran], and I wish we could convince the [Biden] administration that it’s the right thing to do to deal with Iran right now.

Now, if Iran shoots at us, it will be an opportunity, and they know this, which is why they are having a hard time deciding what to do. If they don’t shoot at us, it’s more complicated, and maybe we will have to wait until after the [Nov. 5 U.S.] election and see what happens.

WFB: How would the outcome of the election affect Israel’s calculations with regard to Iran?

When I follow some of the leading think tanks [in Washington, D.C.] that are on the more conservative side—like [the Heritage Foundation, Hudson Institute, and the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies]—I hear an understanding that Iran needs to be dealt with militarily. Five or seven years ago, I didn’t hear that, I heard more about sanctions and things like that.

These are, I would say, the think tanks that are building policy for a future Donald Trump administration. So it gives me hope that if Trump is elected, maybe after January, something very meaningful can be done.

The post ‘A Joke': Bibi Adviser Scoffs at Biden Ceasefire Proposal and Lays Out What Would Prevent All-Out War in Lebanon appeared first on .