NFL Week 4 Picks - Upset Picks, Survivor, Futures, and More
This week, our merry band of Betting Life experts — Matthew Freedman, Matt LaMarca, and Geoff Ulrich — get on the Packers train, share their upset picks, and gaze into their crystal balls with new NFL futures.
Pull up a chair, grab a bowl of candy corn (never too early, right?), and saddle up to our expert roundtable …
NFL Futures Update
1. What’s the new futures bet you’re making today, after seeing three weeks of this season?
Freedman: Bills to Earn No. 1 Seed in AFC (+400, DraftKings)
Josh Allen is the MVP frontrunner (+250, FanDuel), and for good reason; he has been the league’s best player through three weeks. If Allen actually wins the award, there’s a high probability the Bills will also earn the No. 1 seed — and they could do that anyway without Allen being MVP. Ergo, value. Instead of investing in Allen in the awards market, I’d rather take a position on the Bills at longer odds with a correlated wager.
LaMarca: Commanders to win the NFC East (+700). When a team goes two straight games without punting, I’m going to take notice. The Commanders’ offense is already playing like one of the best in football. They’re second in EPA per play — trailing only the Bills — and they’re top six in both yards and points per game.
Their defense is atrocious, but the NFC East looks more open than expected. The Eagles and Cowboys both have flaws, and the Commanders are currently tied for first at 2-1. They have the 12th-easiest schedule in terms of preseason win totals, so I think the Commanders could flirt with double-digit wins. If they can beat the Bengals on the road, why can’t they contend elsewhere, too?
Ulrich: Packers to win Super Bowl (+2400; FanDuel)
The Packers are a team I want to buy in on before their big showdown with Minnesota this week. They were +1600 to win the Super Bowl at most sportsbooks directly before the season began but have ballooned to as big as +2400 in spots.
The dip in price for Green Bay after Jordan Love got hurt was warranted, but with the Packers winning two straight with Malik Willis and Love expected back this week? The larger odds on the Packers no longer make as much sense. If they win going away this week against Minnesota these odds may get cut in half.
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Our Favorite NFL Week 4 Pick
2. What is your favorite bet for Week 4?
Matthew Freedman: Cowboys -5.5 at Giants (-110, BetMGM)
The lookahead line was -7 at most sportsbooks, and I don’t know if we actually saw enough last week to justify a move off that number.
The Cowboys lost, but they lost to the Ravens (one of the league’s best teams), and the final margin was just three points (even though they had some luck to get there). The Giants won, but they beat the Browns, and they won by just six points, whereas the Cowboys defeated the Browns by 16 in Week 1.
Within division, QB Dak Prescott is 29-11 ATS (41.0% ROI, per Action Network).
Matt LaMarca: I’m going to continue rolling with the Steelers. They’re listed as roughly two-point road favorites vs. the Colts, and I think they match up extremely well. They may not be the best 3-0 team in NFL history, but they play great defense and limit the mistakes on offense. They’re the type of team that won’t beat themselves.
I’m not sure the Colts have the capability to “beat” the Steelers. Anthony Richardson has generated some explosive plays this season, but he’s been unable to make the consistent throws necessary to be an NFL quarterback. He’s dead last among qualified QBs in EPA + CPOE composite through three weeks — worse even than Bryce Young — so I don’t like his chances against the No. 1 defense in EPA per play.
Geoff Ulrich: Packers -2.5 (-115; bet365)
I like selling high on the Vikings this week against a potentially great Green Bay team. The Packers have vastly improved their defense this season (9th in defensive EPA) and won by margin TWICE already with a backup quarterback. Sam Darnold looks great to start the year but this is a step up in competition on the road in Green Bay.
Jordan Love (knee) hasn’t been confirmed as the starter for this game yet but given that he practiced in full LAST WEEK, it seems quite likely that he will at some point; when he does I expect this number will move to 3.0 and potentially 3.5. Matt LaFleur is also 23-14 ATS as a home favorite since taking over as head coach, which is near reason enough to like Green Bay under a FG.
You can find more of our NFL free bets in our bet tracker as well.
For more free picks and betting tips across all sports, join the Betting Life Newsletter!
Best NFL Upset Pick in Week 4
3. Who’s your favorite underdog in Week 4?
Matthew Freedman: Colts +114 vs. Steelers (FanDuel)
I’m going directly against LaMarca’s favorite pick of the week. (Sorry friend.) Heading into Week 3, the Colts and Steelers had almost identical values in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings:
- Colts: -1.59
- Steelers: -1.53
And coming out of Week 3, I have both teams power rated at the league average … except the Colts are at home and dealing with fewer injuries, and the Steelers are playing their third road game in four weeks.
LaMarca: I think the Commanders have a good shot of beating the Cardinals, but I’m going to talk about them more later. Instead, let’s focus on the Titans, who are available at +1 on DraftKings. They’re 0-3 both straight up and against the spread, and teams who fit that description tend to be successful in Week 4: they’re 18-12-3 ATS dating back to 2005.
The Titans are also better than the typical 0-3 team. They could very easily have won their first two contests, but some awful turnovers from Will Levis sabotaged them. I’m not expecting Levis to be significantly better against the Dolphins, but he should be able to outperform either Skylar Thompson or Tim Boyle.
Ulrich: Rams (+125; bet365). I’m just going to keep betting against Caleb Williams and the Bears. Through 12 NFL quarters of play, Williams now has two TD passes, four INTs, one lost fumble, and has averaged 5.34 yards per attempt. The Bears are dead last in explosive play rate at 3.3%, have allowed 4.3 sacks per game (third most in the league), and averaged just 3.0 yards per rush (second worst in the league).
Kyren Williams and Matthew Stafford should be able to do enough to get some points on the board and force Williams to drop back 25+ times again, which has led to mostly terrible outcomes for the Bears so far.
More upset picks can be found in our NFL betting model for Week 4.
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Rapid Fire Betting Questions – 5 word answers
4. Answer the following questions in exactly five words:
- What are your thoughts on the Vikings?
Freedman: O’Connell-Flores, real. Darnold… maybe.
LaMarca: Legit. Best coaching in NFL.
Ulrich: Good, but likely not great.
- Which underperformer this season do you still have faith in?
Freedman: Rams, because of McVay-Stafford.
LaMarca: 49ers. Just need better health.
Ulrich: Colts. Richardson can/will improve.
- When is it too early for candy corn?
Freedman: Infancy and 5 AM ET.
LaMarca: I’d rather chew on grass.
Ulrich: Never. Candy anything always good.
- What’s your “unpopular opinion” for this young 2024 season?
Freedman: Steelers aren’t good. Sorry, LaMarca.
LaMarca: The Chargers stink. Sorry, Freedman.
Ulrich: Chiefs are beatable. Sorry, Refs.
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