A full-scale Israel-Hezbollah war increasingly appears inevitable

The drastic escalation between Israel and Hezbollah has the Middle East on the brink of a full-scale regional war, one that could even draw in the United States and Iran.

On Wednesday, in a last-minute bid to avert a much-feared war, President Biden and allied leaders put forward a ceasefire proposal. However, the proposal – which curiously did not even mention “Hezbollah” or “Hamas” – appears to be going nowhere.

The region is now sitting on a knife’s edge. A ceasefire in Gaza, which Biden had long hoped would also calm tensions in Israel’s north, is increasingly out of reach, with administration officials conceding it is unlikely to happen before the end of Biden’s term.

In contrast with Biden’s view of the conflict and role of diplomacy, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has made it clear that he believes only intense military “pressure on Hezbollah could force Hamas to the table” in what he – and most Israelis – consider an existential fight.

Absent an unforeseen breakthrough, a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah now appears inevitable. If this occurs, what would it mean for the United States, particularly with elections looming?

If war does break out, the Biden administration should recognize that this is not just Israel’s fight against Hezbollah. Rather, it is a fight against terrorism generally, and Hezbollah’s allies, particularly Iran, Russia, and China. 

Since October 7th, Hezbollah has fired nearly 10,000 rockets and missiles at Israel in support of Hamas. These near-daily attacks have killed over 40 Israelis – including 12 children struck by a Hezbollah missile in late July – and have forced roughly 70,000 Israelis to flee their homes.

Netanyahu declared on Thursday that Israel will continue “to strike Hezbollah with full force. We will not stop until…the return of the residents of the north securely to their homes” doubling down on his belief that diplomacy has little value in the Middle East, relative to military action.

To that end, Israel has taken the gloves off, with a series of strikes Netanyahu said were designed to send Hezbollah an unmistakable “message.” These strikes, while justified, have also raised the risks of an all-out war.

In an unprecedented intelligence operation, Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah-owned pagers and walkie-talkies over two days last week, killing and wounding 1,500  Hezbollah fighters per Reuters.

Israel followed up the pager attack with days of crushing, ongoing airstrikes, eliminating 10 of the top 12 Hezbollah commanders and destroying a considerable part of Hezbollah’s arsenal.

Now, the Israeli military has massed soldiers, armor, and artillery on the border – the first step for an invasion of Lebanon. 

To be sure, it is difficult to overstate how devastating a full-scale war would be for both countries and the entire Middle East. The U.S. should do everything possible to ensure that Israel has the ability to win.

Courtesy of Iran, Hezbollah possesses an arsenal that, in both quantity and quality, is far superior to most militaries.

In an all-out war, even Israel’s formidable missile defense systems could find themselves overwhelmed by thousands of simultaneous attacks, potentially leading to thousands of civilian casualties and an even more punishing Israeli response.

Of course, Israel’s overwhelming advantages in the air and on the ground would eventually destroy or severely damage Hezbollah, and much of the Lebanese state along with it. Tens of thousands of Lebanese civilians would be casualties due to Hezbollah embedding themselves in civilian areas.

Iran, who ultimately calls the shots for Hezbollah, is also unlikely to risk the destruction of its most important proxy. This much has been seen in Iran’s unwillingness to push Hezbollah to ramp up its attacks or attack Israel itself.

Hamas, however, would welcome the outbreak of war. It’s been reported that Hamas’ leader, Yahya Sinwar, hoped the October 7th attack would be followed by a Hezbollah invasion of Israel, engulfing Israel in a regional war. A second front would also take the pressure off Hamas, itself battered from a year-long war with Israel.

While neither Israel nor Hezbollah likely want a full-scale war, this conflict is rapidly spinning out of control, and one miscalculation could set it off.

The situation has also triggered alarms in Washington, keenly aware of the political consequences of a full-scale war.

An Israel-Hezbollah war, just weeks before the presidential election, could severely hurt Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances, particularly if American soldiers came under attack or if the U.S. was drawn into direct conflict with Iran.

Indeed, voters have consistently trusted Donald Trump more on foreign policy generally, including by 7-points (47% to 40%) in a new CNN poll. 

On trust to handle the war in the Middle East specifically, Trump also has a 7-point lead (52% to 45%) in a recent Fox News poll, underscoring the threat an expanded war could have for Harris.

That being said, it is absolutely critical that the Biden administration do more than try to play peacemaker.  As Brett Stephens noted in the New York Times, “the proper role for the United States in this crises is not to seek a diplomatic solution. It’s to help Israel win.”

Put another way, the United States should not be a neutral, diplomatic broker, but should fully support our ally, not, as its been reported, withhold weapons and intelligence assistance.

To be clear, this is not to push for the United States either entering the fight against Hezbollah or to take preemptive action against the Mullah’s in Iran. However, it is imperative that the U.S. recognize that in weakening Iran’s main proxies, Israel is doing the entire West a favor. 

It is well known that Iran uses Hezbollah as a sword around the neck of Israel, ready to attack should Israel target Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Denying Iran this capability is not only in Israel’s interests, but those of the entire free world, including President Biden who vowed not to let Iran acquire a nuclear weapon. 

With Israel and Hezbollah rapidly approaching a point of no return, it is imperative that the U.S. back our ally against a terrorist group which has killed hundreds of Americans, and against its Iranian masters.

Ultimately, the only way to achieve real, lasting peace in the Middle East and avoid an incredibly destructive full-scale war is through a strong Israel which, right now, is on the front lines against terrorist groups backed by an increasingly bellicose “axis of evil.”

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant. Saul Mangel is senior strategist at Schoen Cooperman Research.