Tracking Data Shows D’Andre Swift Is Way Worse Than You Thought
The Chicago Bears signed D’Andre Swift in free agency for $8 million per year. The 25-year-old seemed to have something the team wanted. His speed would give them more explosiveness in the backfield. There was plenty of logic to the move. However, it is fast becoming one of the worst free agent moves in recent memory. Even topping Nate Davis. In three games, Swift has 37 carries for 68 yards. That is an average of 1.8 yards per carry. The Bears have the 30th-ranked rushing attack in the NFL, and Swift is a primary reason for that.
Many people can’t understand what is happening. While never a star, he’d always been productive. Through his first four years, he averaged a healthy 4.6 yards per carry. Is it his blocking? Everyone immediately jumps to that as an explanation. However, that is not the case. The Bears haven’t been great in that department, but they also haven’t been the worst. Justin Melo of The Draft Network came across some startling data that shows Swift is a bigger part of the problem than he wants you to know.
His rushing efficiency is a league-high 9.01 yards, according to Next Gen Stats, meaning he’s traveling more total distance than any other running back in the league per rushing yards gained. Essentially, he’s getting east-west searching for yards that aren’t there as opposed to getting north-south. Swift also has the worst Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE) mark in the league at -83. On average, Swift is gaining 2.38 yards less per carry than the tracking data indicates he should be getting.
D’Andre Swift is his own worst enemy.
Presuming the data is correct, he should be gaining 4.18 yards based on the blocking he’s received. That is staggering inefficiency for any running back. It speaks to a combination of poor vision and Swift’s bad tendency to big-game hunt. He is trying too hard to hit explosive plays that end up costing his team positive ones. It is little wonder the Bears are planning to get Roschon Johnson more involved moving forward. He has the good sense to focus on hitting the holes and getting positive yards.
It is important to remember D’Andre Swift is not a lost cause. He remains a talented player who has shown he can be a dangerous weapon. The trick is getting him to where he is more focused on his job rather than thinking about getting that long touchdown. Rebuilding his confidence should be a focus for the Bears. Abandoning him is not a smart thing to do. He can still help this team. It is about getting him on the same page as everybody else.