MANILA, Philippines – Conflict and deaths have been on the uptrend in the Bangsamoro region in the last three years, and a “deadly” 2025 elections is feared if the causes of violence are not addressed, crisis group Conflict Alert warned on Thursday, August 22.

“Violent conflict is on a rebound two years after the passage of the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) and ten years after the conflict-to-peace transition began when the Bangsamoro peace agreement was signed in 2014. The long view of violence clearly shows an upturn in the trendline starting in 2021,” Conflict Alert said on Thursday as it presented its triennial report for 2021-2023.

Conflict Alert is an independent monitor of violent conflict in the Philippines.

In 2023, the group monitored 760 deaths and 2,475 incidents of conflict in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).

Their data also found that incidents are higher when it’s election time. “The number of incidents in 2022 was highest in May during the national elections and in October in 2023 during the barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan (BSK) elections with 242 and 273 incidents, respectively,” said the report.

The report warns that “the violent political competition between and among families may also reignite longstanding feuds and contribute to the anticipated deadly nature of the regional and midterm elections,” said the report.

“We are not here to make the BARMM look bad, or OPAPRU (Office of the Presidential Adviser on Peace, Reconciliation and Unity) look bad, or the Comelec (Commission on Elections) look bad. But they have to be abreast of what is happening. And they have to honestly look at the figures of violence,” said conflict expert Francisco Lara Jr, executive director of the Council for Climate and Conflict Action Asia, in a press conference on Thursday.

Causes of conflict

The top cause of both incidents and deaths is still shadow economy, which are mainly illegal drugs and guns-for-hire. Identity issues, which arise from land dispute, clan feuds and extremist violence, came out as the second cause.

The report pointed out that “much of the collective violence in the BARMM occurred in Maguindanao” due to infighting within the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the leaders of the autonomous Bangsamoro government. The BARMM is the result of a decades-long peace process between the Philippine national government and the MILF.

In 2023, around 11,000 individuals were affected by clashes between warring MILF commands in Maguindanao del Sur. Maguindanao is the seat of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA).

Three political parties have formed a coalition to challenge the MILF’s United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) for the 2025 midterm elections. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has stood firm that the 2025 elections will push through, following calls to extend the current BTA’s term and hold elections in 2028 instead.

Conflict Alert’s report said that Maguindanao “will experience the worst,” but “all provinces will witness violence” in the leadup to the 2025 elections.

“Ostensibly, the risk of getting involved in violence, being displaced, or worse, being killed in Maguindanao is almost twice as likely to occur than in any other province such as Basilan or Lanao del Sur,” said the report.

Failure of the 2025 elections “is a reality” said Lara, “but the problem with a declaration of a failure of elections where it is decided in one particular municipality only or even in just one barangay is that it will lead to more violence.”

On Wednesday, August 21, the Supreme Court temporarily halted the holding of plebiscites, supposedly to be held in September, to ratify new municipalities in Maguindanao del Norte.

“We think it will help contain the violence that they were expecting to happen during the plebiscite. Because the different interest groups are already squaring off,” said Lara.

‘Discipline your troops’

The group’s data also found that provinces that are far from the BTA are more peaceful. “Across the Bangsamoro from 2021 to 2023, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi had far lower numbers in terms of
both incidents and deaths, even when weighed per capita and per square kilometer,” said the report.

“It defies logic,” said Lara, “the only explanation we can give is because the traditional politicians seem to be more effective in controlling violence.”

“[They are more effective] In trying to mediate conflicts between different groups, in trying to secure the protection of their communities not by controlling the amount of arms but giving everyone the choice to have their own arms. So by distributing arms, you created a deterrence against arms.”

In terms of MILF infighting, the group said the decommissioning has not been genuine. There has also not been a demobilization of forces.

“[MILF] needs to discipline its troops,” said Lara, “you cannot say that ‘that’s a rogue commander,’ you can’t do that. They are accountable for the actions of its members.”

In his State of the Nation Address, Marcos gave a glowing recommendation of BARMM, saying it had “improved peace and order situation, good governance — not to mention high hopes and confidence amongst its people.”

“With these inspiring developments, the BARMM appears primed and ready for its first regular elections in 2025,” said Marcos.

“The evidence does not confirm or prove the idea of a peace momentum that the regional and national government have repeatedly declared through numerous pronouncements about improved peace and order and good governance,” said the report.

“The data instead indicates new sources of instability and a conflict rebound that may go higher with the upcoming elections and its aftermath,” the report added. – Rappler.com