If someone told you each Week 10 prime-time game through Sunday fell below their already small betting totals, you’d probably say no kidding and show them the tickets you already cashed on those unders. The teams involved were the Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders for crying out loud. Of course, those games went under.
However, there’s been a trend of night games with fewer points scored than expected that transcends the teams involved, and it extends even beyond this season. So, while it certainly helped to have some terrible matchups in the most recent schedule of games after dark, night unders are simply having a moment.
In fact, if this was a stock chart, the line would still be climbing sharply. Night unders are 64-29 (68.8 percent) since the start of last season, and 24-7 this season alone (77.4 percent).
NFL night game unders are now 24-7 (77.4%) this season…
+ Unders have hit in 10 straight night games, including 14 of last 15
+ Night unders are 64-29 (68.8%) since start of last year pic.twitter.com/wEnhIBsN8O
— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) November 13, 2023
According to Action Network media and research director Evan Abrams, unders have hit in 10 straight night games, including 14 of the last 15. And it’s not like this is a league-wide trend; overs were 8-5 in Week 10.
If there was ever a time to blind bet a useless trend, this would be it. The line for Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos on Monday night is 46.5 points at BetMGM. I’m just saying.
Week 11 will really put this trend to the test, with significant upgrades to the Thursday (Bengals at Ravens) and Monday (Eagles at Chiefs) night games.