House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) already faces a slim majority where he can't afford to lose more than five seats before being tossed back into the minority.
Added to this, reports Politico, McCarthy's majority is being further imperiled by court-ordered redistricting that could be enough by itself to tip the scales to Democrats next year.
"In the past nine days, state and federal judges threw out two congressional maps — and helped Democrats avoid a worst-case scenario in Ohio — kicking off an unusually busy redistricting calendar heading into the election year," the publication writes. "All told, a dozen or more seats across at least six states could be redrawn, increasing the likelihood Democrats could chip away the five-seat GOP House majority through redistricting alone."
In particular, the redrawn maps could give Democrats likely seats in Florida, Alabama, and Louisiana, where Republican-drawn gerrymanders have been thrown out by courts.
And things could get even better for Democrats in New York, the state where Republicans made significant gains to take their majority last year.
Democrats are arguing that they should get another crack at drawing congressional maps in the Empire State after a court-appointed master drew a map that helped usher in the GOP majority in 2022.
"If courts agree, Democrats could draw somewhere between 18 and 22 Democratic districts," notes Politico.