Add news
March 2010April 2010May 2010June 2010July 2010
August 2010
September 2010October 2010
November 2010
December 2010
January 2011
February 2011March 2011April 2011May 2011June 2011July 2011August 2011September 2011October 2011November 2011December 2011January 2012February 2012March 2012April 2012May 2012June 2012July 2012August 2012September 2012October 2012November 2012December 2012January 2013February 2013March 2013April 2013May 2013June 2013July 2013August 2013September 2013October 2013November 2013December 2013January 2014February 2014March 2014April 2014May 2014June 2014July 2014August 2014September 2014October 2014November 2014December 2014January 2015February 2015March 2015April 2015May 2015June 2015July 2015August 2015September 2015October 2015November 2015December 2015January 2016February 2016March 2016April 2016May 2016June 2016July 2016August 2016September 2016October 2016November 2016December 2016January 2017February 2017March 2017April 2017May 2017June 2017July 2017August 2017September 2017October 2017November 2017December 2017January 2018February 2018March 2018April 2018May 2018June 2018July 2018August 2018September 2018October 2018November 2018December 2018January 2019February 2019March 2019April 2019May 2019June 2019July 2019August 2019September 2019October 2019November 2019December 2019January 2020February 2020March 2020April 2020May 2020June 2020July 2020August 2020September 2020October 2020November 2020December 2020January 2021February 2021March 2021April 2021May 2021June 2021July 2021August 2021September 2021October 2021November 2021December 2021January 2022February 2022March 2022April 2022May 2022June 2022July 2022August 2022September 2022October 2022November 2022December 2022January 2023February 2023March 2023April 2023May 2023June 2023July 2023August 2023September 2023
News Every Day |

The Media Is Deluded About the Trump “Indictment Effect”

Generally speaking, being charged with a crime is considered a bad thing. The accusations, the overwhelming scrutiny, the legal bills—none of it is good, especially if you’re asking voters to trust you with the nuclear codes. But after he levitated into politics on a cloud of reality-televsion hype, the media is highly resistant to treating Donald Trump as normal. So it was hardly surprising when, four indictments in, a consensus began brewing that these criminal charges against Trump are good, actually: “The pileup still seems like a boon to his renomination effort,” wrote Ross Douthat at The New York Times. Rich Lowry claimed that “the indictment helped boost him nearly 10 points in the national polls.” Political reporters coined this the “indictment effect,” noting Trump’s ability to “turn criminal charges into political assets.”  

This is a theory that took hold without ever really being tested as an empirical matter. By and large, it’s not clear that anyone has even tried to subject this claim to any scrutiny: The only evidence cited in support of the idea that the indictments benefit Trump politically is a cursory look at national polling averages, which do show Trump’s lead widening around the time that he faced his first indictment, from Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

But it’s also the case that Trump has always led in the polls—far from signaling some major shift in voter sentiment, it’s much more likely that the indictments simply fell within the normal ebb and flow of Trump’s standing with voters, something we have observed numerous times throughout his tenure on the national stage. 

There are also several other explanations for Trump’s burgeoning lead that began last spring. The most obvious choice to pick from is the fact that Trump’s chief challenger, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, made his official entrance into the race and was an almost instantaneous flop. Indeed, much of the lion’s share of Trump’s rise in the polls comes alongside the simultaneous decline of DeSantis—a candidate who has defended Trump ad nauseam, particularly on the issue of the indictments.

Adherents of the “indictments help Trump” theory have yet to put forward a coherent explanation for how Trump’s indictments have some sort of unseen power to convert DeSantis voters—by all measures just as radical and in no need of reasons to rage at the political left—into Trump supporters. It is definitely likely that DeSantis’s refusal to use the indictments as leverage in his campaign against Trump cued Republican voters to dismiss them; this is a weird campaign in which none of Trump’s opponents seem to want to take advantage of his legal woes. But in this instance, Trump isn’t so much blessed with four indictments as he is benefiting from historically inept primary opponents.

But the idea that Trump’s legal entanglements have added a creatine boost to his campaign is not just unsupported by its own evidence, it also ignores the growing indications that the opposite is true: Voters take the charges quite seriously. A CNN poll from late August shows that, just among Republican voters, 13 percent say the charges, if true, disqualify Trump from the presidency—a small number, yes, but more than enough to completely sink his chances of victory in a general election. For the electorate at large, the picture is even more dire for Trump: Numerous polls shows a majority of the country support the indictments, and even more voters say he should no longer be eligible to serve if convicted.

There is rarely one, clean explanation for anything that happens in American politics, and that’s quite clearly the case with Trump’s enduring lead in the 2024 primaries. The decision to attribute Trump’s strength to the indictments, then, is a choice the chattering class is making, plucked from the ether. It’s not hard to see why many in the establishment media have come around to this mystical notion: For as long as Trump has been in the spotlight, members of the media and political establishment have constantly predicted his demise.

The latest inflection point came after the Democrats’ surprising showing in the 2022 midterms, when the headlines were awash with the takeaway that Trump was washed and DeSantis was the big winner. The Times concluded that DeSantis’s political career was “supercharged.” Others maintained that the governor was on the verge of “wrestling control of the GOP from Trump.” Conservative media was (not for the first time!) said to be on the verge of dumping Trump. Jonathan Chait noted, “DeSantis has the advantage of a unified conservative-movement apparatus behind him.”

These post-midterm predictions of Trump’s destruction followed a familiar logic: Trump’s victory in 2016 was a fluke, and once Republicans can identify a more traditional leader without the baggage, the party elites would flock to him or her, bringing the base along with them. Naturally, no such pivot has occurred: Trump’s grip on the party is firmer than ever, and every indication suggests that a critical mass of voters want the baggage and are resistant to the idea that some amount of moderation is warranted. So these prognosticators are simply searching for the latest explanation as to why they were just wrong, and “Trump’s indictments are the source of his power” is the new article faith that’s been built to replace the previously held belief that Trump was finally toast.

Ascribing Trump’s success to the indictments serves numerous purposes beyond providing psychological succor to some terminally incorrect campaign touts: It not only explains why the impending Trump implosion never occurred but also pins the blame on Trump’s political opposition. There is no narrative more adored by the political media than that American politics is a battle of extremes on both sides—what better story to tell than that reasonable Republicans were ready to throw Trump over a ledge, only for rogue, far-left prosecutors to toss Trump back into the good graces of the base?

There is, of course, one obvious story to tell about Trump’s massive lead: that Trump has always owned the Republican Party and that party is all in on his criminality and corruption—the hell with the majority of Americans who think otherwise. There is, indeed, no greater illustration of the Republican Party’s nosedive into anti-democracy and right-wing radicalism than their continued obsession with Trump. If you’re looking for an “indictment effect,” look to a Republican Party that remains utterly unaffected by Trump’s misdeeds.


Синоптик Шувалов спрогнозировал переменчивую погоду в Москве зимой

50 Chilies Papaya Salad! SPICY THAI FOOD in Thailand! Khon Kaen ( )

LIV Golf in hot water again, faces lawsuit from Adidas over logo trademark issue

7 small habits that will change your life forever

Stylish Fall Essentials You Need For 2023

Read also

Ivan Perisic’s close friend provides pleasing update on his knee surgery

Atlanta vs Juventus team news and where to watch

My date asked me to post his bail and get him out of jail

News, articles, comments, with a minute-by-minute update, now on

News Every Day

7 small habits that will change your life forever — latest news 24/7. You can add your news instantly now — here

News Every Day

Stylish Fall Essentials You Need For 2023

Sports today

Новости тенниса
Анна Блинкова

Блинкова уступила во втором круге теннисного турнира в Нинбо

Спорт в России и мире

«Хожу в спортзал, качаю две руки»: репер ST о подготовке к рождению второй дочери

All sports news today

Sports in Russia today


«Хожу в спортзал, качаю две руки»: репер ST о подготовке к рождению второй дочери

Новости России

Game News

Netflix выпустил игру Storyteller на iOS и Android про написание визуальных историй


Сергей Собянин рассказал интересные факты о московском метро

Губернаторы России
Елена Волкова

Валерия, Юрий Антонов, Александра Ребенок, Дмитрий Дюжев и другие звезды на музыкально-театрализованном представлении в честь 100-летия Расула Гамзатова

Контейнер морской б у где купить?

7 суровых мест на Земле, где живут люди

Герман Греф: природа должна признаваться в качестве актива

Суд арестовал водителя, устроившего ДТП с пятью пострадавшими в центре Москвы

Саксофонист Игорь Бутман рассказал о своих самых любимых местах в Москве

Певица Манижа поделилась, как выглядит ее тело через два месяца после родов

Рэпер Джиган сообщил, что пропал из соцсетей из-за болезни

Супруга Вдовина заняла сторону дочки Волочковой в семейном конфликте

Блинкова уступила во втором круге теннисного турнира в Нинбо

Елена Рыбакина вышла на корт в Пекине после критики в адрес WTA. Видео

Джокович поздравил Хачанова с победой на турнире в Чжухае

Рыбакина рассказала о настрое после скандального ухода с турнира WTA

В Москве пройдет итоговый концерт культурного проекта «Классика: история и современность»

Восемь новых камер обнаружены в пирамиде Сахура

В Марианской впадине обнаружен самый глубоководный из когда-либо найденных вирусов

В Московской области определили 15 лауреатов конкурса «Учитель года России - 2023»

Посол Антонов: РФ не получила приглашение от США на саммит АТЭС в Сан-Франциско

Международный День музыки с Денисом Мацуевым и Relax FM

"В рамках национального проекта Культура в 2023 году открылся виртуальный концертный зал в Северобайкальске" - минкультуры Бурятии, глава ведомства Соелма Дагаева

Билан, Гагарина и Валерия не выступят на концерте в Москве

СПЧ: в новых регионах страны идет стремительное развитие институтов гражданского общества

Бархатный сезон: топ-10 вариантов, куда можно отправиться этой осенью

Игорь Николаев после своего выздоровления резко взвинтил цены на свои концерты

Баскетбол. ЦСКА и УНИКС начали с побед сезон в Единой лиге

Путин в России и мире

Персональные новости
Евгений Побожий

В Воронеже выступит один из лучших джазовых гитаристов в мире Евгений Побожий

News Every Day

LIV Golf in hot water again, faces lawsuit from Adidas over logo trademark issue

Friends of Today24

Музыкальные новости

Персональные новости