Early NFL betting lines reveal how little the separation is between the new-look Jets and rest of AFC East
With the 2023 schedules for each NFL team set to be released Thursday evening, the leaks are coming fast and furious.
While some are unconfirmed, many were officially announced and already have betting lines available at sportsbooks. Those games give bettors a small peek into just how much the books value certain teams.
So far, the Kansas City Chiefs have four games listed on DraftKings and the champs are favored in all four, including a 3.5-point spread in their AFC Championship rematch against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17.
Oddsmakers still like the Philadelphia Eagles too, with FanDuel favoring them in all three of their listed games, including a 7.5-point spread over the division rival New York Giants on Christmas Day.
However, the most interesting takeaway from the early betting lines involves the AFC East teams, and specifically, where the new-look New York Jets fit in the pecking order.
We’ve known since the Jets landed Aaron Rodgers that they have the second-best odds to win the division behind the Bills. But with the same 9.5 preseason over/under as the Miami Dolphins — just one fewer than Buffalo — it wasn’t clear what oddsmakers thought the separation was between these teams. Now, we have a few more data points.
While there’s still plenty of time for these lines to shift, the Jets are currently 1.5-point home underdogs with +105 moneyline odds against the Bills in their Week 1 opener, and they’re 2.5 point favorites (-135) at home against the Dolphins in their Week 12 Black Friday game.
In other words, these teams are expected to play some incredibly tight games, and New York’s big offseason wasn’t enough to even gain a home edge over Buffalo. The Jets are only slight favorites over Miami at home. For people like Turner Sports’ Adam Lefkoe, who’s higher on New York’s standing in the division than pessimists like myself, now seems like a good opportunity to sprinkle something on those lines.
In games outside of the division, the Bills are favored by 3.5 over the Jaguars in London in Week 5 and the Dolphins are 5.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs in Germany in Week 9.
The Patriots, who are projected to finish last in the East, are 3.5-point home dogs in their opener against the Eagles and five-point favorites in their Germany game against the Colts in Week 10.