Weekend Box Office Bet: How much will Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 drop in second weekend?
As the 2023 summer movie season enters its second weekend, everything’s coming up Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3.
Filmmaker James Gunn’s trilogy ender won last week’s box office with a $118 million domestic debut, a bit under our projection but ahead of industry tracking.
The big question will be what the drop-off will be for the Marvel Cinematic Universe film.
MCU films have had a nasty habit as of late with rough second weekends. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania suffered the worst second-weekend drop in Marvel Studios history with a 72-percent plummet from its opening.
Lackluster reviews and a supposed feeling of superhero fatigue could be to blame for Ant-Man‘s box office struggles compared to other MCU films. However, Marvel films have seen some noticeable drops as of late.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever saw its second-weekend box office fall 63-percent this past November, while Thor: Love and Thunder fell 66-percent from its first weekend at the box office last July.
A year ago, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness fell 67-percent in its second weekend.
It’s tough to gauge exactly how much Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will fall, but recent CinemaScores can help us understand exactly where audiences are with this latest Guardians film compared to those recent MCU movies.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 scored an “A” CinemaScore, joining Black Panthers: Wakanda Forever to earn an “A.” The second Doctor Strange film and the fourth Thor film both scored “B+” grades, while the third Ant-Man film scored a “B.”
We’re going to comfortably predict that Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 wins the weekend and basically give it the same -2000 odds it had last weekend to do so.
However, the earning number is tricky. The film might be able to buoy its sound reviews to less of a drop than recent MCU films, and there isn’t a lot of competition out there. The last Guardians film dropped 57-percent for its second weekend back in May 2017.
Industry tracking suggests the film will drop roughly around the second Guardians film with a 55-percent drop and notch a $50-55 million opening.
We’re going to predict that Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 falls around 58-percent from its opening weekend and grosses about $50 million this weekend.
The Super Mario Bros. Movie should still open in the top five, as should the new film Book Club: The Next Chapter. The latter positioned itself well for Mother’s Day weekend and may open a bit ahead of its first installment.
Robert Rodriguez’s sci-fi action film Hypnotic (starring Ben Affleck) and actor Charlie Day’s directorial debut Fool’s Paradise round out our top five.
Top five box office predictions (May 12-14):
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: $50 million
- The Super Mario Bros. Movie: $14 million
- Book Club: The Next Chapter: $12 million
- Hypnotic: $7.5 million
- Fool’s Paradise: $3.5 million