Cubs Have a Chance to Win First Ever MLB Draft Lottery
For the first time ever MLB is having a draft lottery. The Cubs finished 74-88 in 2022, and although they don’t have a good chance to end up with the first overall pick in the 2023 draft, the possibility isn’t at zero either.
Odds to get First Overall Pick in 2023 MLB Draft
The Cubs have a 1.1% chance of receiving the first overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. The 18 teams that did not make the postseason are all in the draft lottery. The three worst teams have the same odds to land the top pick in next year’s draft.
- Nationals (55-107), 16.5%
- A’s (60-102), 16.5
- Pirates (62-100), 16.5
- Reds (62-100), 13.2
- Royals (65-97), 10.0
- Tigers (66-96), 7.5
- Rangers (68-94), 5.5
- Rockies (68-94), 3.9
- Marlins (69-93), 2.7
- Angels (73-89), 1.8
- D-backs (74-88), 1.4
- Cubs (74-88), 1.1
- Twins (78-84), 0.9
- Red Sox (78-84), 0.8
- White Sox (81-81), 0.6
- Giants (81-81), 0.5
- Orioles (83-79), 0.4
- Brewers (86-76), 0.2
The first six spots will be determined by the draft lottery and the remaining teams will pick in reverse order of their 2022 winning percentage. So, if the Cubs don’t jump into the top-six, they’ll end up with the 12th pick in the first round. That is if they don’t get bumped down a few slots, which does remain a possibility.
Here are all the odds for each of the 18 teams in the draft lottery. Via Tankathon.
Meanwhile, teams that did make the playoffs get to choose in reverse order of their postseason finish in all rounds of the draft.
You can watch the draft lottery live Tuesday night. Coverage of the event begins at 8:30 p.m. ET on MLB Network and it will also be available to stream on MLB.com.
You can read more about the rules of the draft lottery here, including certain teams not being able to receive a lottery pick in consecutive years and other quirks that make the MLB draft lottery different than the other major sports league in the United States.
Recent High Draft Picks by the Cubs
Since the year 2000, the Cubs have had a top-10 pick in the first round of the draft 10 times. That includes a run of five consecutive top-10 picks from 2011-15, four of which ended up playing on the 2016 World Series winning team.
2000: Lou Montañez (3)
2001: Mark Prior (2)
2003: Ryan Harvey (6)
2007: Josh Vitters (3)
2011: Javier Báez (9)
2012: Albert Almora Jr. (6)
2013: Kris Bryant (2)
2014: Kyle Schwarber (4)
2015: Ian Happ (9)
2022: Cade Horton (7)
The only time the Cubs have ever had the number one pick in franchise history was back in 1982, when they drafted Shawon Dunston. Other notable top picks from the 1990s include Kerry Wood, who was selected fourth overall in 1995 out of high school and Jon Garland, who was taken 10th in the 1997 draft.
Hey, the Bulls had a 1.7% chance of getting the first overall pick back in 2008, and they did! So maybe it happens again in Chicago with the Cubs having a 1.1% chance at that number one pick.