Week 13 Dynasty Stock Watch: Jacobs, Wilson, White
Josh Jacobs is having a career year, but it's not reflected in his dynasty trade value.
After taking a Thanksgiving week break, the Dynasty Stock Watch returns. There are only two weeks left in most leagues until the postseason begins. If you've still got a shot, good luck. If you're already in, congrats. If you're out, well, welcome to the offseason. No matter how good or bad your team is, try to remember there's always work to be done.
I'd like to once again offer some advice to the dynasty commissioners out there. There should be no trade deadline. If a playoff team really needs to make a deal, they're probably going to have to overspend. If somebody really wants to try to "buy" a championship, it comes at a cost. This helps shift the balance of power as bad teams get the better value end of these deals. Implementing a trade deadline only works to disengage players. The golden rule of dynasty is to encourage activity and facilitate rules to accomplish that goal.
And I hope it goes without saying, there should be no vetoing of trades. Sometimes you win a trade, sometimes you lose it. However, giving managers the power to restrict player movement is never the solution. The only caveat is collusion. But if you've got cheating managers in your league, that's a much bigger problem than lopsided trades.
Let's get to the dynasty stock watch...
Zach Wilson, New York Jets
Yes, he isn't good. Yes, he probably won't get another crack at a starting gig without a trade to another team or a coaching change—unlikely given Robert Saleh's success this year.
With that in mind, the selling window is closed. We're past fashionably late. If you're showing up to the sell party, the cops are here and you're getting cuffed for showing up intoxicated. Unless you can get a team to severely overspend—again, unlikely—there's not much value gained in selling him off. I suppose if you're in a really deep league, an extra pick can't hurt. But I'd rather just cling to the lotto ticket that has became Wilson.
So you do what you've already been doing. You continue to hold him if you have a deep bench, especially in superflex. Or, you just cut him loose and move on. I wouldn't blame you. Banish him to the free agency pool where he probably belongs.
Do I believe Mike White is really the guy? Heck no. Joe Flacco? Child please. I don't know what the Jets have in store, but I'll take a flier on them bringing in a QB coach or offensive coordinator who can give Wilson another opportunity to turn it around. You may believe the Jets will add a quarterback early in the 2023 draft—sure, it's possible. But I could rattle off about seven other more pressing needs because that's how bad this team has been this year (OT, C, S, G, ILB, OLB, pass rusher).
Am I really recommending you to hold Wilson? Yes, because again, what are you going to get for him? Nothing of consequence. I suppose you might be able to get a future late second or third for him in a superflex. That's probably wishful thinking. I'll be going down with the ship and I'll cut him next year if there's no turnaround.
Price check: 2023 third
Superflex: 2023 early third
Win-now: Hold
Rebuild: Hold
Mike White, New York Jets
Don't. Just don't. Even if Wilson is not the starter next year, it won't be White either. They'll bring in Jimmy Garoppolo or another free agent QB. White is not the guy. Need more evidence? Go to spotrac and look up how much they're paying Wilson. His salary ain't much but they gave him nearly $23 million as a signing bonus. You don't quit on the second overall pick, a 23-year-old, who's received $25 million so far. I'll allow one caveat: White leads this team to the Super Bowl. I'll call it the Tom Brady exception. Otherwise, no.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
I didn't see this one coming. I predicted in the offseason that the Raiders' backfield would be like the Patriots of yore with the arrival of Josh McDaniels. An unpredictable split. A hot hand approach. An overspecialized mess. Well, that hasn't been the case at all as Jacobs has been Derrick Henry lite. He has 216 carries (third-most), 31 runs of 10-plus (second), 64 missed tackles (first), 3.83 yards after contact (third among RBs with 100-plus carries) and the impressive list of stats goes on.
Despite his overperforming ways, Jacobs's stock hasn't climbed as you might expect. It's up, for sure. He's the RB12 and 35th overall (RB12/42nd overall in SF) on Fantasy Calc and RB9/31 (RB7/34 in SF) on Keep Trade Cut. You may not agree with these sites or have a general distaste for calculators. However, I take crowdsourced information as a guide, not gospel.
Jacobs is only 24 years old, 25 in February. And while I am concerned about McDaniels's job security, I don't believe the Raiders will move on and will give him another year. Just one man's opinion. I don't want to give up much more than my price check listed below, but I'm a buy even right in the middle of Jacobs's hot streak. There's some negative bias baked into his cost that's keeping it low.
Price check: 2023 first + 2023 second
Win-now: Buy
Rebuild: Hold
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