ACC/Big Ten Challenge Men’s Preview, Predictions

The annual event’s matchups include UNC-Indiana, Duke–Ohio State and Virginia-Michigan.

The annual men’s ACC/Big Ten Challenge will begin Monday night, and it’s not often that things seem as lopsided as they do heading into the 2022 edition. The ACC has not won the event since ’17 and faces an uphill climb to change that this year, with Big Ten teams favored to win 10 of the 14 matchups on KenPom and nine of the 14 on T-Rank. The only thing that matters, of course, is what happens on the court, but the ACC’s general start to the season has not inspired confidence. And of the six games that have already featured the two conferences facing off in 2022–23, the Big Ten has won four, including Purdue’s 19-point thrashing of Duke on Sunday. It also doesn’t help the ACC’s cause that the team left out of the event this year is 6–1 NC State.

Despite all that, the ACC has a big opportunity in front of it over the next three nights. If it can pick off a few notable upsets, it could go a long way toward helping the league’s perception—which will help when it comes to NCAA tournament seeding and bubble discussions in March. On the other hand, the Big Ten can further put a stamp on what’s been a successful opening few weeks for the conference ahead of this week’s league openers. Below, we preview and predict all 14 matchups:

All times are Eastern.

Minnesota at Virginia Tech (Monday, 7 p.m., ESPN2)

Minnesota has been, analytically, one of the worst power conference teams in the country so far, giving the ACC a great opportunity to grab the opening game. The Golden Gophers have yet to face a top-80 KenPom opponent and have lost to DePaul and UNLV, with only one of their four wins coming by more than eight points. Virginia Tech does have a road loss to Charleston on its early résumé, but Mike Young has built another solid roster in Blacksburg. Look out for Hokies sophomore Sean Pedulla, who looks on his way to a breakout season.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 71, Minnesota 59

Pittsburgh at Northwestern (Monday, 9 p.m., ESPN2)

Not many people outside their respective fan bases will be circling this one, which pits a team picked 13th in its preseason conference media poll (Northwestern) with one picked 14th in its own (Pitt). The Wildcats, though, have shown some life to open 2022–23, beating Liberty by 14 on a neutral court before losing by just one to No. 13 Auburn in a stingy defensive effort. This is a critical season for Northwestern coach Chris Collins, and falling at home to a Panthers team ranked 122nd on KenPom would not help that cause.

Prediction: Northwestern 66, Pittsburgh 58

Maryland at Louisville (Tuesday, 7 p.m., ESPN2)

Here are two programs with new coaches who have opened those eras in vastly different fashions. There’s no sugarcoating Louisville’s start under Kenny Payne: The Cardinals are 0–6, with three one-point losses to mid-majors and three blowout losses at the Maui Invitational. Maryland, meanwhile, is 6–0 under Kevin Willard, climbing into the top 25 last week and rolling behind early offensive cohesion among several key contributors. That’s a problem for a Louisville team that has reached 70 points just once, and there’s no doubt the Terps are a road favorite against the struggling Cardinals.

Prediction: Maryland 83, Louisville 65

Penn State at Clemson (Tuesday, 7 p.m., ESPNU)

The Nittany Lions have quietly had a solid start to the season, their only blemish being a two-point loss to Virginia Tech. They’ve been one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country so far, with transfers Camren Wynter and Andrew Funk providing pop from the outside alongside seniors Seth Lundy and Myles Dread and point guard Jalen Pickett putting together a fantastic month. Clemson’s been no slouch from the arc itself, and this one could come down to the better-shooting team at Littlejohn Coliseum.

Prediction: Penn State 74, Clemson 71

Syracuse at Illinois (Tuesday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN)

This has not been the Syracuse start Jim Boeheim wanted, with losses to Colgate, St. John’s and Bryant (in an ejection-marred game) already. Tuesday’s game is a fascinating matchup of styles, with the high-tempo, three-point bombing Illini clashing with an Orange team playing at a slower pace and with a notably lower three-point rate than recent seasons. It also pits two freshman point guards—Syracuse’s Judah Mintz, who is leading the team in scoring, and Illinois’s Skyy Clark. For ’Cuse, this is a big opportunity to grab a road win and erase the sour taste of the Bryant loss—but that’s easier said than done, especially in Champaign.

Prediction: Illinois 74, Syracuse 67

Wake Forest at Wisconsin (Tuesday, 9 p.m., ESPNU)

The rebuilding Demon Deacons have yet to play a top-100 KenPom opponent, so their 6–1 record is thinner than it may seem. Any trip to the Kohl Center is tough, and the Badgers are showing early signs that they were underestimated in the preseason yet again. But their offense has left a lot to be desired, ranking 351st in two-point shooting. Expect this one to be another grind-it-out affair, with Florida transfer Tyree Appleby (17.9 ppg) needing some help if Wake is to spring the upset.

Prediction: Wisconsin 65, Wake Forest 60

Georgia Tech at Iowa (Tuesday, 9 p.m., ESPN2)

The Yellow Jackets are another rebuilding ACC program in a tough position in the challenge, this time traveling to Iowa City. Georgia Tech has been dismal offensively so far (318th nationally in effective field goal percentage), which makes it difficult to see it keeping up with Iowa’s generally reliable offense. The Hawkeyes are a team that won’t often beat itself and could ride a big game from breakout forward Kris Murray to victory.

Prediction: Iowa 82, Georgia Tech 70

Virginia at Michigan (Tuesday, 9:30 p.m., ESPN)

This is one of the few games in the challenge where the ACC team is favored to win on KenPom, which is notable since the Cavaliers are the road side. Michigan may be 5–1, but the 30 spots it has tumbled on KenPom since the preseason tells more of the story of how its November has gone. Virginia may be known for its defensive system, but the Hoos are playing beautiful offense right now, leading the nation in assist rate, ranking fourth in perimeter shooting and capturing big wins over Baylor and Illinois. If the Wolverines are to take this one they’ll likely need to pick up their own three-point shooting, where aside from Jett Howard and Joey Baker, they’ve struggled. The Kadin Shedrick–Hunter Dickinson battle down low should be a good one.

Prediction: Virginia 72, Michigan 68

Ohio State at Duke (Wednesday, 7:15 p.m., ESPN)

This is seemingly one of the more evenly matched games of the challenge, and one of the more realistic chances for the ACC to pick up a marquee win. This Duke team has been a little all over the place so far to open the Jon Scheyer era, which was perhaps to be expected, and comes home after a mixed showing at the Phil Knight Legacy tournament. The Blue Devils need to get their outside shooting going—they’ve made more than seven threes in just two of their eight games, surviving despite that because they boast the nation’s best offensive rebounding percentage. Ohio State has the offense to make this real tough on the home side, but winning in Cameron Indoor is rarely easy, and a big environment at home may just be the antidote Duke needs.

Prediction: Duke 73, Ohio State 72

Purdue at Florida State (Wednesday, 7:15 p.m., ESPN2)

This matchup looked a lot better in the preseason compared to now. The Seminoles, picked fifth in the ACC preseason poll, have been a disaster in November, going 1–7 with losses including Stetson, Siena and Troy. Purdue, meanwhile, is flying mighty high at 6–0, including wins over Gonzaga and Duke. It’s rare to see Florida State as a double-digit underdog in Tallahassee, but the only real danger here for the Boilermakers is if they suffer a letdown after their big weekend in Portland. While FSU does have its own 7'4" player (Naheem McLeod) to try to bother Zach Edey, it’s going to take more than that to pull this upset.

Prediction: Purdue 84, Florida State 68

Rutgers at Miami (Wednesday, 7:15 p.m., ESPNU)

Rutgers has been impressive defensively to open the season, holding low-major opponents to 35, 46, 49 and 50 points. Its loss to Temple came without starters Paul Mulcahy and Caleb McConnell, the latter of whom made his season debut over the weekend. But Miami represents the first real test for the Scarlet Knights, and the backcourt duo of Isaiah Wong and Nijel Pack will test that defense. Hurricanes center Norchad Omier and Rutgers center Clifford Omoruyi are both off to strong starts, but with Omoruyi having four inches on Omier, the Knights’ interior size could be an issue for Miami. Cracking 70 points might be enough for a W in this one.

Prediction: Miami 70, Rutgers 66

North Carolina at Indiana (Wednesday, 9:15 p.m., ESPN)

When ACC/Big Ten matchups came out over the summer, this was largely considered the crown jewel of the 2022 event. And while North Carolina’s unexpected start to the season takes a bit of shine off it, this game’s still got plenty of juice. Assembly Hall will be rocking for the 6–0 Hoosiers, who, outside a narrow road win over Xavier, have beaten up on a series of low-major teams. The Tar Heels come into this one having taken a couple of lumps in Portland as they try to retain the level of chemistry they had last March, and with the urgency for a big win perhaps ticked up. With both sides boasting talented frontcourts—Trayce Jackson-Davis and Malik Reneau for Indiana, and Armando Bacot and Pete Nance for UNC—it may be the backcourt play that ultimately decides this.

Prediction: North Carolina 78, Indiana 76

Michigan State at Notre Dame (Wednesday, 9:15 p.m., ESPN2)

Another team coming off a Thanksgiving weekend in Portland, Michigan State has played one of the toughest schedules in the country so far and largely done well with it. The Spartans have found an identity through their toughness and seem like a classic Tom Izzo group that will be at its strongest in March. Notre Dame is coming off a loss to St. Bonaventure, but this could be an interesting game in South Bend, particularly after Malik Hall’s injury. The Irish’s defense and lack of depth are big concerns—they’ve been essentially playing a six-man rotation with Marcus Hammond sidelined—but they’ll be the more rested team coming in. Notre Dame needs to dictate the tempo and make its shots to take advantage of its lone nonconference chance at a ranked victory.

Prediction: Michigan State 73, Notre Dame 70

Boston College at Nebraska (Wednesday, 9:15 p.m., ESPNU)

Don’t expect this one to be a shootout in Lincoln, as both offenses rank outside the KenPom top 100 (and for the Eagles, outside the top 200). Boston College has been hindered by injuries early and took losses to Maine and Tarleton State but showed some resolve in beating Wyoming and Rhode Island in its last two outings. On Sunday, Nebraska cruised past Florida State, which usually carries a lot more weight than it does this year but can still be considered progress for the Huskers.

Prediction: Nebraska 66, Boston College 60

Final predicted outcome: Big Ten 9, ACC 5

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