Add news
March 2010
April 2010
May 2010June 2010July 2010
August 2010
September 2010October 2010
November 2010
December 2010
January 2011
February 2011March 2011April 2011May 2011June 2011July 2011August 2011September 2011October 2011November 2011December 2011January 2012February 2012March 2012April 2012May 2012June 2012July 2012August 2012September 2012October 2012November 2012December 2012January 2013February 2013March 2013April 2013May 2013June 2013July 2013August 2013September 2013October 2013November 2013December 2013January 2014February 2014March 2014April 2014May 2014June 2014July 2014August 2014September 2014October 2014November 2014December 2014January 2015February 2015March 2015April 2015May 2015June 2015July 2015August 2015September 2015October 2015November 2015December 2015January 2016February 2016March 2016April 2016May 2016June 2016July 2016August 2016September 2016October 2016November 2016December 2016January 2017February 2017March 2017April 2017May 2017June 2017July 2017August 2017September 2017October 2017November 2017December 2017January 2018February 2018March 2018April 2018May 2018June 2018July 2018August 2018September 2018October 2018November 2018December 2018January 2019February 2019March 2019April 2019May 2019June 2019July 2019August 2019September 2019October 2019November 2019December 2019January 2020February 2020March 2020April 2020May 2020June 2020July 2020August 2020September 2020October 2020November 2020December 2020January 2021February 2021March 2021April 2021May 2021June 2021July 2021August 2021September 2021October 2021November 2021December 2021January 2022February 2022March 2022April 2022May 2022June 2022July 2022August 2022September 2022October 2022November 2022
News Every Day |

The 2024 Presidential Election? Democrats Have Already Won

The 2024 presidential election is already over. Democrats won. Or rather, they will. Just ask New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson, beneficiary of his opposition’s inability to settle upon a single nominee in 1912. More accurately, and for the purpose of this example only, ask the Donald Trump of his age: Theodore Roosevelt. A former president from New York with inherited wealth, a loyal base of supporters, and an insatiable need to be the center of ever story, Roosevelt’s refusal to step aside, even for a once-loyal successor who promised virtually the same agenda, broke the Republican Party’s lock on the electoral college.
[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]

History is revving up for a repetition of that fateful election. For forty-four of the fifty-two years preceding Wilson’s tenure, and for another twelve after, the presidency belonged to the Grand Old Party. Roosevelt himself won the election of 1904 in a landslide, before handing his party’s standard four years later to his personal and ideological friend, William Howard Taft. TR left office the youngest former president in history—a distinction he still holds today—but couldn’t stay retired. More accurately he couldn’t stay out of the spotlight, and ran against Taft a mere four years later for the Republican nomination.

Here is where the story gets particularly interesting for understanding 2024. Indeed, here is where it starts to sound familiar. Taft won the nomination, yet Roosevelt refused to admit defeat, claiming the entire nominating process was fixed from the start. “Never has there been anything more scandalous” in American political history, TR railed with a sense of hyperbole wholly familiar to those of us who have lived through the Trump era. “They are stealing the primary elections from us.” If his supporters, indeed the American people, wanted the country they deserved, the time for talking had passed. It was time instead to fight. “We stand at Armageddon,” Roosevelt declared before leaving Republicans behind to forge his own party, “and we battle for the lord.”

Ego clearly drove Roosevelt. His own daughter quipped he was only happy if the bride at every wedding and the corpse at every funeral. Yet his continued candidacy also channeled genuine public anxiety over a rapidly changing nation. The industrial, transportation, and communications revolutions of the late 19th century hit the 20th like a locomotive, giving rise to labor movements that demanded more, waves of immigrants who arrived seeking something better, and native-born American fears that the future might well leave them behind. Roosevelt spent his years in office on the vanguard of the progressive movement, whose unofficial mantra was ‘change a little now, lest we have to change everything later.’

Change wasn’t happening fast enough voters, however. Wilson, Roosevelt, and Taft too claimed the progressive mantle in an election many perceived a referendum on America’s soul, while 1912’s fourth major candidate, Eugene Debs, cast his lot with the rising strength of the Socialist Party. Roosevelt’s supporters broke away first, fueling and fueled by a candidate whose own sense of restraint and desire for incremental change died the day he was denied his party’s nomination to run again. The system was rigged when powerful and largely unseen forces could deny true Americans their champion, Roosevelt railed from the campaign trail. Voters needed a leader willing to break any barrier required to ensure they got the “square deal” promised as their birthright. Warned his staying in the race would wreck not only the Republican hold over the Electoral College but also the foundation of the entire political system whose peripheries already called for revolution, Roosevelt accepted the bargain. “If that is a revolution,” he declared, “make the most of it.”

Which brings us back to 2024. Trump is running. Perhaps President Joe Biden too, setting up a repeat of their 2020 contest. Just as every candidate in Theodore Roosevelt’s last election vied for the progressive label, the last time round both Biden and Trump promised to bring change to a sclerotic political system and an economy that appeared to leave too many Americans behind. Trump wanted to “Make America Great Again,” and Biden offered the largest overhaul of American society since the New Deal of the 1930s. Their party’s potential alternatives will likely promise the same, especially given the widespread expectation that economic headwinds for the typical American household will only increase between now and 2024.

Then as now, however, math will matter more than mere words, and the simple math is this: just as in 1912, neither party can afford to split its vote. Roosevelt siphoned off some Democrats in 1912, but split Republicans even more, while Debs captured six percent of the overall vote (impress your friends with this factoid, as it was the largest socialist vote in American history). All of which added up to Democratic victory, something inconceivable except in the one scenario where Republicans couldn’t make up their minds. Indeed, it took something as consequential as World War One to ensure Wilson’s re-election in the razor-thin 1916 campaign. In any ‘normal’ contest between major party candidates devoid of a global cataclysm or a split-party ticket, Republicans would otherwise have maintained their lock on the White House all the way until the Great Depression finally ended their stable hold on the electoral college.

We are hardly as locked into one party’s Electoral College dominance as Americans in 1912, which is why, though historians are typically loath to predict the future, the evidence pointing to a Democratic victory in 2024 is impossible to ignore. One of two things will happen. The less likely option is that Trump, despite his immeasurable political baggage and increasing legal troubles, will win the Republican nomination, yet fail to win the White House in the end. More than 50% of American voters hold a negative view of the former president, and a plurality if not a majority of Republicans who still think favorably of him would prefer a different candidate with the same policies. These are not auspicious numbers with which to begin a presidential bid. Just ask Hillary Clinton, whose overall disapproval numbers exceeded the number of Americans, across the board, who embraced her as a candidate in 2016.

So, if Trump wins in August, Republicans will lose in November. In the more likely event that he loses the nomination, he will run as a spoiler—or at least tell his supporters to stay away from a clearly fraudulent election. With little room to spare in a country so evening split between red and blue, a Democrat, indeed any Democrat, will win.

How can we be so sure Trump will rally his base until the end, like Roosevelt refusing to stand behind his party’s duly-selected nominee? Because for all of Donald Trump’s unpredictability, he has shown two things clearer than anything else. First, that he, like Theodore Roosevelt before him, will ultimately denigrate any former supporter and friend in pursuit of his goal, and like TR as well, he doesn’t accept defeat well. Imagine this scenario: Trump runs for the Republican nomination—and anyone who thinks his current legal woes will preclude his campaigning has not been paying one bit of attention to the man’s character or playbook—and loses to another America First candidate with less political baggage. Perhaps Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis or Texas’ Greg Abbott wins instead, and Trump graciously takes the stage at the GOP convention to pledge his full support for the man who beat him fair and square for the right to champion his party’s banner.

You can’t envision such a thing, and that’s the point. Trump will never admit defeat, graciously or otherwise, and cannot be imagined successfully campaigning for someone else to win the job he thinks rightly his. He, too, demands to be the bride at every wedding, the corpse at every funeral, and the top-name on any yard-sign or bumper sticker. Because we can’t imagine Trump not running, just as we can’t imagine him graciously conceding defeat so another Republican can possibly win, we know a Democrat will win instead. Just ask Woodrow Wilson, one of the most influential presidents our nation has seen in the realm of foreign affairs, who never should have had the opportunity to leave New Jersey. Barring that, ask Debs, who ran for President from a jail cell eight years later, proving that even prison need not keep Trump from yet determining the fate of our republic.

Read also

49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo avoids the roller coaster to focus on the here and now

The perfect GOP presidential ticket

Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will sit out next two games

News, articles, comments, with a minute-by-minute update, now on

News Every Day

VantageScore is the second largest credit scoring model. It's slowly gaining momentum, but may become very important soon. — latest news 24/7. You can add your news instantly now — here

News Every Day

VantageScore is the second largest credit scoring model. It's slowly gaining momentum, but may become very important soon.

Sports today

Новости тенниса
Александр Волков

«Волшебник Изумрудного города» и еще 5 лучших дестких книг Александра Волкова

Спорт в России и мире

Журналисты «Радио Зенит» стали лауреатами премии «Энергия побед»


All sports news today


Sports in Russia today


Владимир Брилёв принял участие в чемпионате по киберфутболу

Новости России

Game News

Fanatical's Black Friday Sale includes a free game, some historic low prices


Вдова Станислава Говорухина погибла во время пожара в Новой Москве

Губернаторы России
Никол Пашинян

«МК»: Пашинян бросил вызов Кремлю и прикрылся спиной Путина

Летом 2022 в Москве в павильоне ВДНХ - АРТ Техноград прошел форум профессий будущего

Во Владимире открылся фестиваль творчества и ремёсел «Реки-Руки»

Единое универсальное пособие на детей: кому положено, как рассчитать, как оформить

Forbes: Приобретение Арменией иранских беспилотников может стать потенциальным сдерживающим фактором и достойным ответом оси Баку - Тель-Авив

Танк в честь Басты, Рема Дигги и города Гуково расписали донские участники СВО

​Петр Лундстрем избран членом Центрального штаба «Культурного фронта России»

The Doors — Paris Blues (Official Video)

Песню рэпера OG Buda проверят на предмет ущемления прав жертв фашистов

Рафаэль Надаль: Пока не могу сказать, когда я поеду в Австралию. Моя жизнь изменилась после рождения ребёнка

Пловец Николай Зуев вошел в состав "Синтеза"

"Кубок Дэвиса". Борна Чорич обыграл Танаси Коккинакиса и вывел Хорватию вперёд в матче с Австралией

Новак Джокович завершил бы сезон вторым, а Ник Киргиос - 11-м, если бы Уимблдон не лишили очков

Forbes: Приобретение Арменией иранских беспилотников может стать потенциальным сдерживающим фактором и достойным ответом оси Баку - Тель-Авив

Почему турецкий минисултан Алиев отказался от переговоров с Макроном по Армянскому вопросу


"Можно правильно направить все программные орудия мира": Анатолий Голод, Служба общей информационной безопасности

За год онлайн-спрос на автокредиты упал в четыре раза

Дима Билан покинул Москву, чтобы жить в деревне

Летом 2022 в Москве в павильоне ВДНХ - АРТ Техноград прошел форум профессий будущего

Курдский генерал предупредил Анкару: На всей границе с Турцией будет хаос

Двойник Пугачевой из Крыма рассказал о ее планах вернуться в Россию

Вдова Станислава Говорухина погибла во время пожара в Новой Москве

Первый в России Центр ИИ-трансформации региона будет открыт в Подмосковье

Путин в России и мире

Персональные новости


Новосибирцы услышат «Царицу Песню» благодаря нацпроекту

News Every Day

It's not just you. Disney's CEO reportedly thinks its theme parks have gotten too expensive.

Friends of Today24

Музыкальные новости

Персональные новости