Baker Mayfield is inches away from success, but it’s a big gap for the Panthers

The inches are not adding up for Baker Mayfield and the Carolina passing game

“The inches we need are everywhere around us.”

These were the words of coach Tony D’Amato, as portrayed by the legendary Al Pacino, in the often-quoted locker room speech near the end of Any Given Sunday. Building off the notion that football — and life — are games of inches where those who are willing to fight for those inches are the ones who emerge victorious, D’Amato inspires his team to take the field and fight for those inches.

Right now, the inches are not adding up for the Carolina Panthers in their passing game. As a result, the Panthers are 1-3 and head coach Matt Rhule is facing questions about starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, and whether he will keep his job when Sam Darnold returns from an injury.

And Rhule is also facing questions about his job.

What plagues the Carolina passing game? It could honestly be a matter of inches. Consider this, from NFL Next Gen Stats. Through four games, Mayfield has an Expected Completion Percentage (xCOMP) of 67.1 percent, which is ninth-highest in the NFL.

His actual completion percentage? That checks in at 54.7 percent, fourth-worst in the league. Only Justin Fields, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance are lower among qualified passers. When you measure Completion Percentage Above Expectation, the difference of -12.4 percent Mayfield has posted this season is also the fourth-worst in the league.

Looking further at the numbers from Mayfield this season does not improve the picture. Ben Baldwin from The Athletic tracks a number of different metrics, including quarterback efficiency, using NFL charting data. In his analysis, which is updated weekly, he uses a combination of his Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) model along with Expected Points Added per Play to paint a picture of a quarterback’s efficiency.

The results for Mayfield are anything but a pretty picture:

On a graph like this, you do not want to be in the bottom left quadrant.

Mayfield is pinned to the bottom left corner.

In Baldwin’s model, Mayfield’s CPOE checks in at -13.4 percent, worst in the league. His EPA/play checks in at -0.219, also worst in the league.

Again, not a pretty picture.

What does this look like on the field? It looks like a matter of missing out on the inches all around us.

In Carolina’s Week 3 victory over the New Orleans Saints, Mayfield and the Panthers passing game had a chance for a big play, a chance to punish a Cover 0 blitz from the Saints.

Carolina runs a two-receiver concept working off play-action, keeping eight in the protection scheme. That gives Mayfield a fairly clean pocket to operate from, and he targets D.J. Moore on an out route along the right side.

He just misses the throw:

On Mayfield’s next passing attempt, he targets Moore on a crossing route against man coverage. Moore has a step on the defender, and Mayfield has another clean pocket.

But the throw is high, and the punt team comes onto the field:

Plays like continued into last Sunday’s loss to the Arizona Cardinals. On this third-down play from the first quarter, Mayfield has a chance to move the chains as he looks to Tommy Tremble on a crossing route working from right to left. He makes the right decision with the football, targeting the tight end in the window between underneath zone coverage defenders, but the throw is behind Tremble, and falls incomplete:

In Mayfield’s defense, he might be trying to put this throw to Tremble’s back shoulder, given the coverage. Which is a fair way to interpret this play, as the quarterback wants to throttle the tight end down, and make sure he does not lead Tremble into the curl/flat defender on the outside.

That, however, is not a defense to this miss from later in the game:

Offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo dials up a downfield concept working off play-action, with a deep post route combined with a pair of crossing routes. Mayfield has another clean pocket to work from, and looks to Robby Anderson as he streaks across the field from left-to-right.

But the pass is low, and while the receiver goes to the turf to make the catch, the throw is ruled incomplete.

Plays like this could be having an impact on the rest of the passing game. While studying Carolina’s game against Arizona, this play stood out:

Mayfield gets what you want here as a quarterback, as the Panthers run a hitch/seam concept to each side of the field often termed “HOSS.” With the Cardinals spinning into a single-high Cover 3 zone coverage, this is an situation for the offense. The inside receiver to each side of the field runs a seam route, and those routes bracket that safety in the middle of the field. Mayfield can use his eyes to influence the safety to one seam route, and throw to the other.

Instead, he checks it down. Christian McCaffrey, to his credit, picks up eight yards on the play, but this is a missed opportunity.

Of course, none of this is probably news to Carolina fans, who have lived these missed opportunities over the past four weeks. What they want to know is: Why is this happening?

It could be any number of things. These missed inches in the passing game could be due to a mechanical issue from the quarterback. Mayfield has always had a wider throwing base with a bigger front step, and this could be posing a problem for him right now. Anytime mechanical issues are at play, I turn to Coaching Quarterback Passing Mechanics, an insightful book written by coach Steve Axman, who was Troy Aikman’s offensive coordinator at UCLA. Here is what Axman wrote about a quarterback using a big front step:

As previously mentioned, the front step is not a big step. Although each quarterback’s front step will differ in length due [to] physical differences, it must be enough to force the upper torso to actually roll, or fall, over the ball of the planted front foot. Too big a front step forces the upper torso to position its weight toward the back foot, causing a “break” of the body at the hips. In essence, the hips and lower body are left behind as the upper torso snaps forward from the hips. This action either causes a release that is too high, thereby forcing the football to take off high, or a situation in which the football is pulled down low, thereby causing substantial loss of torque and power and a low throw.

Looking at some of these throws, and more, from Mayfield this year you see how this could be the issue. Look at the second throw above, the high throw to Moore on the crossing route. You see the wide base, and ball come out high as Axman describes above.

Compounding this problem could be the fact that Mayfield’s front step seems to be inconsistent. Sometimes it is bigger than others, which could also be impacting his release point, and his accuracy on throws.

Then there is this issue, which could be forcing him to compensate with his release point and trajectory:

Mayfield joked about this after Week 1, but it seems like this is becoming a bigger problem. Again, it is sometimes a matter of mere inches, but they are adding up to an issue for the Panthers’ passing game:

Right now, Mayfield seems to be trying to throw over defenders in these situations, rather than adjusting his arm slot or creating throwing lanes another way. Creating better throwing lanes should be a focus for Mayfield over the next few weeks, whether by creating space with his feet or adjusting his arm slot when necessary.

Whether it is his front step, his throwing base, a need to compensate for the deflections at the line of scrimmage, or something else, the inches are not adding up for the Panthers’ passing game right now. That needs to change, in a hurry, or bigger changes might follow in Carolina.