The Chiefs are still explosive, and it starts up front
Patrick Mahomes is great, but Kansas City’s success begins with their offensive line
We can start with numbers.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-1 on the young season, sitting in first place in the AFC West, the division most believed over the summer would be the toughest in the NFL. Were it not for a head-scratching loss in Week 4, the Chiefs would be alongside the Philadelphia Eagles as one of the only undefeated teams in the league.
But what stands out? The numbers on offense through four weeks:
Here's where the Chiefs' offense ranks through 4 games of the post-Tyreek Hill era:
— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) October 3, 2022
EPA/drive: 1st
Pts./drive: 1st
Offensive PPG: 2nd
Success rate: 3rd
Patrick Mahomes is 1st among starting QBs in EPA per pass play.
As is noted above, these numbers are posted through four games of the “post-Tyreek Hill era.” That was the question all summer long, right? How would the Chiefs be explosive on offense with Hill now with the Miami Dolphins?
Well, after four games it seems the offense is still plenty explosive. The Chiefs have created 16 explosive passing plays on offense this year — defined as plays that gain 20 yards or more — just two behind the Detroit Lions, who lead the league. (Yes, the Lions are fun). They also have seven explosive runs on the year, including three of more than 20 yards.
There is a lot of credit to go around in Kansas City right now. From Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy on the coaching staff, through the skill positions and of course Patrick Mahomes — who remains a football-throwing alien — but it would be remiss not to highlight where it all begins.
With the men up front.
When the Chiefs lost Super Bowl LV to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it touched off a process within the organization to rebuild their offensive line. Seeing Mahomes under duress that entire night forced Kansas City to address that unit the following offseason, and they opened the 2021 season with five new faces along the line.
Including a pair of rookies, in center Creed Humphrey and right guard Trey Smith.
Now, the rookies have a year under their belt, and the group has come together. Even with right tackle Lucas Niang on the Reserve/PUP list as he recovers from a knee injury suffered late last season, this group up front has been a huge part of Kansas City’s success this season.
That was certainly the case Sunday night in the Chiefs’ win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as it has been this season.
Kansas City got on the board first, taking advantage of an early miscue from the Buccaneers on special teams, as Mahomes connected with Travis Kelce on a 16-yard touchdown pass. While the defense rushes just four on the play, look at the perfect pocket the offensive line creates for Mahomes, giving him time to survey the field before connecting with his tight end:
The offensive line created another perfect pocket for Mahomes on this second quarter strike to Marquez Valdes-Scantling. In particular, watch the right side of the line as Smith and Niang’s replacement, Andrew Wylie, deal with the rush off the edge:
Later in the game, when Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles tried to get creative, the men up front were still able to sort out the protection and keep their quarterback clean. On this third-down conversion from the fourth quarter, Bowles shows pressure, as both Devin White and Lavonte David mug the A-Gaps. But they drop off into coverage, as the pressure comes from the edges.
Still, the offensive line sorts out the scheme, most notably with Humphrey picking up the inside slant from defensive tackle Rakeem Nunez-Roches, and Mahomes has time and space to step up into the pocket and connect with Kelce to move the chains:
While these three examples are situations where the defense did not bring overwhelming numbers, the Chiefs have been able to generate explosive plays this year even in the face of pressure schemes up front. On this downfield strike to Mecole Hardman from Week 2, the Los Angeles Chargers bring Derwin James off the right edge, as they send five after Mahomes. Watch as the offensive line holds up front, and rookie running back Isiah Pacheco slides across the formation to pick up the blitz:
As noted, the explosive plays are not only coming through the air, but the Chiefs are creating them on the ground. Perhaps most notable about their seven runs this season of ten or more yards is that all of them have come with the defense in single-high coverage.
Why is this notable? One of the underlying schematic themes of this season is the tension between defenses keeping both safeties deep, and offenses trying to attack in those situations. The general proposition is that defenses are playing with these two-deep coverages to limit explosive passing plays in the passing game.
Anytime this discussion surfaces I am reminded of a session during the Hudl ‘21 Blitz clinics. Hudl, the sports video software company, put on a virtual series of clinic sessions about the game, including a session where Kirk Cousins talked about reading coverages and progressions. It was all fascinating.
But the most illuminating session, to me, was a defensive roundtable hosted by Chris Vasseur. Vasseur is a former high school defensive coordinator, and one of the smartest people on the planet when it comes to defensive schemes. His podcast Make Defense Great Again is a must-listen.
During this roundtable, Vasseur talked with a number of high school defensive coordinators. Each of them outlined how they try and play with two-deep safeties as much as possible, to force offenses to run the football. Why? Because passing is more efficient, so turn the quarterback into a spectator and dare the offense to run.
The tension we have seen this year between these two-high defenses, and how offenses are responding to them, might ultimately tell the schematic story of this season. Generally, scoring is down around the league, a phenomenon recently examined by Arif Hasan of Pro Football Network. In this piece, he dives into the drop in scoring — heading into Week 4 scoring around the league was the lowest since 2010 — and after running through the data, he has this to say:
All of this suggests that the original reasoning – that teams are playing two-high coverage shells more often and forcing quarterbacks to throw shorter more often – might be one of the biggest factors in the decrease in leaguewide scoring rate.
Teams keep two safeties back, allow the quarterback to survey the field and force him to take the checkdown. That has resulted in a lower depth of completion and a lower yardage per attempt, leading to makeup yardage later that doesn’t help advance the ball in a meaningful way.
With defenses adjusting to this era of football by relying on two-deep looks, the next adjustment might be how offenses force defenses away from two-deep coverages, and into single-high. As we discussed a week ago, once an offense gets the defense into single-high, that is often when they immediately take to the air. When one of the safeties creeps down into the box, the numbers change, and throwing becomes more advantageous for the offense.
So Kansas City’s explosive runs coming against single-high turns that thought on its head, and further highlights the work being done by the men up front. Work that is further highlighted by the fact that entering Week 4, the Chiefs were one of the best teams in ESPN’s run block win rate.
Take this run from Week 1, with the Arizona Cardinals in single-high coverage before the snap. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is able to get to the edge, thanks to the work done by tackle Orlando Brown Jr., left guard Joe Thuney, and tight ends Travis Kelce and Noah Gray. Kelce, in particular, is notable on this snap as he works a combination of blocks:
On this 52-yard run from Edwards-Helaire against the Chargers, once more you see the defense in single-high, as James creeps down into the box before the play. Watch as the line creates the path for the running back, starting with Smith and Wylie as they fan out to the edge to take on the combination of Joey Bosa and Morgan Fox:
We can close with a run from last night. With the Chiefs facing a 3rd and 1 in the first quarter, they aligned with Mahomes under center and Edwards-Helaire behind him in the backfield. Tampa Bay shows single high coverage, putting nine defenders in the box, but the Chiefs pick up the first down and more on this run:
Humphrey and Thuney stand out on this play. The center is able to get to the outside of nose tackle Deadrin Senat, due in part to Senat slanting to his left, but that creates the initial opening for Edwards-Helaire. As Humphey executes his block, he knocks into Thuney, causing the guard to stumble as he climbs toward White. But the stumbling guard gets enough of the linebacker, and Edwards-Helarie is into the secondary before he is touched, ripping off a 20-yard gain.
Kansas City’s ability to generate explosive runs this year against single-high coverage looks turns some of the conventional wisdom on its head. It might be due to the fear on the defensive side of the all that when aligned in this manner against Kansas City, that is when Mahomes will look to attack downfield. It could be due to the fact that against these looks, the Chiefs have used some condensed formations, creating extra gaps up front that even the safety in the box cannot help protect in defensive run fits.
Or it could be that that the guys up front are pretty darn good.
Mahomes and the rest of the skill players are certainly worthy of praise, but so too is the offensive line in Kansas City. As we continue to unravel how the Chiefs are still explosive this year with Hill down in Miami, we might want to pay closer attention to the big guys getting it started up front.