Geno Smith is officially better than Russell Wilson (through four games. In 2022)

Geno Smith was thrown into a quarterback competition with Drew Lock this August. This feels absolutely astounding at the start of October.

The Seattle Seahawks are 2-2 with their promoted backup behind center despite a roster that sold off several veteran playmakers over the past year. On Sunday, Smith’s playmaking was the difference between a win and a loss against a frisky Detroit Lions team on the road. The 32-year-old continued a resplendent return to the land of NFL starters with 369 total yards, three touchdowns, zero turnovers and a wildly efficient 10.7 yards per pass.

This isn’t just a toss-off performance against an overmatched team. Smith’s last two weeks are proving he can scale the small-sample size efficiency he showed in 2021 and the start of 2022 into something more. In the process, he’s built himself into a legitimate top 10 NFL quarterback — so far.

via RBSDM.com and the author

Per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats — compiled here by the wildly useful RBSDM.com — Smith is basically breaking the curve of what he’s expected to bring to the table. His 12.4 completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the difference between his actual completion rate and what an average NFL quarterback would be expected to complete under the same circumstances) is an absurd 12.4. The next closest quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, clocks in at 4.4.

That, factored with his 0.229 expected points added (EPA) per play — fifth-best in the league — paints him as the league’s second-most efficient passer through four weeks. More importantly, he’s been able to sustain that efficiency despite upping his passing volumes to new heights in green and blue.

Before 2022, Smith’s single-game passing high as a Seahawk was 209 yards. In the last two weeks he’s thrown for 645. Seattle scored 24 points its first two outings. Smith has guided his offense to 71 in his last two games.

Sunday’s performance wasn’t just accurate throws and big runs after the catch. Smith’s average pass traveled 11 yards past the line of scrimmage. He threw nine passes that traveled at least 16 yards downfield and completed nine of them. His numbers on those throws? 191 yards, one touchdown and a 155.8 passer rating.

This all brings up a question no one outside of the Geno truthers out there expected to be asking this fall; is 2022 Geno Smith a better option for the Seahawks than 2022 Russell Wilson? Through an extremely small sample size the answer, somehow, is yes.

Russ has had the misfortune of playing for Nathaniel Hackett, who seemingly calls plays based on whatever his Ouija Board spat out the night before. It’s worth noting, however, Smith’s start ranks better than all but two of Wilson’s four-game samples to begin the season since joining the league in 2012:

That’s not a perfect metric, of course — Jimmy Garoppolo was the league’s most efficient quarterback at the dawn of 2016 by Next Gen Stats’ count which, heh — but it’s a useful tool that gives us a better vantage point than just completion percentages and passer ratings.

Of course, regression will happen. Joe Burrow led the league in CPOE last year at 6.7 percent, which is a little more than half Smith’s current mark. His stats are going to fall back to earth.

Wilson will grow into his role as his head coach, hopefully, understands how to play to the strengths of his offense. More importantly, the Seahawks won’t get to play the Falcons or Lions again in 2022 — two bottom-half passing defenses with standout young corners but weaknesses across the remainder of their secondaries.

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Still, Smith is dealing. Through roughly one quarter of the season he’s been as valuable to Pete Carroll as Russell Wilson had been the previous two years. In a weak NFC, Smith’s presence could be the difference between a rebuild and a place as the kind of Wild Card team no division champion wants to face.

Seattle gave Smith the chance to prove himself, though he had to earn it by beating out Lock. He’s done that and more; he’s emerged as one of the most surprising success stories of the 2022 season so far.