Midterm polls: The race for the House and Senate

With only a few weeks to go until the midterm elections, polls are starting to show a shift in some of the early predictions about the upcoming congressional races. While the Republicans once seemed poised to sweep both the House and Senate, a recent chain of events has helped the Democrats close the gap. 

Will Democrats be able to hold onto control against uphill odds? Or will Republicans succeed in stymying President Biden's agenda ahead of the 2024 presidential election? Here is everything you need to know about the state of the upcoming races for the House and Senate:

The race for the House

Republicans maintain a slight lead

According to the most recent polling data, both FiveThirtyEight and The Economist forecast Republicans flipping the House in November. The Democrats had always faced an uphill battle in trying to remain in control of Congress, as it is typical for the president's party to lose seats during the midterm elections, per The Economist. 

Republicans have maintained their lead, with FiveThirtyEight forecasting a 69 percent chance of their party winning the most House seats. Republican candidates are bolstered by their stances on the economy, inflation, and crime, per a Washington Post-ABC News poll. However, the GOP's early lead began to suffer after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade (1973), the landmark decision that had federally guaranteed the right to abortion. FiveThirtyEight reports that Democrats slowly gained on Republicans in polls after that controversial decision. 

Registered voters are split almost evenly on who they want to vote for in the 2022 House races, with 47 percent planning to vote Republican and 46 percent keen on the Democrats, The Washington Post reports. But despite improvements in congressional polls for Democrats, overall results still predict they will lose the House majority. 

Anger helped Democrats win in 2018 — but Republicans don't have that lead this year

Morning Consult reports that voter anger helped the Democrats win the House in 2018. Their most recent State of the Parties report found that "Republicans hold no such advantage over their Democratic rivals on this key metric about the electorate's mood." 

Currently, registered Democratic voters have a 1 percent lead over Republicans when asked if anger appropriately describes how they feel going into the midterms. Compared to how Republicans felt in the 2018 season, fewer Democrats are hopeful about the upcoming election, with 56 percent compared to the 74 percent Republicans felt in 2018. 

Morning Consult cites political science research that shows anger is "a proven motivator to get voters to show up at the polls — even more so than other gauges of anxiety or motivation." Their analysts explained that the Democrats have seen a surge in voter enthusiasm after the Roe decision, but that energy seems to be tapering off. The political atmosphere could potentially provide Republicans an advantage going forward, as "there's a good chance new events could enrage conservatives." Such events might include the future outcomes of the ongoing court cases involving former President Donald Trump. 

The race for the Senate

Democrats have a shot at holding control

Democrats have managed to pull into a slight lead over Republicans in the Senate race. The Economist and FiveThirtyEight both forecast that the Democrats have a chance at maintaining their control over the Senate. FiveThirtyEight predicts they have a 68 percent chance of winning. 

FiveThirtyEight cites the lack of political experience among 2022's Republican candidates as a likely reason for the Democrats surpassing them in Senate polls. According to FiveThirtyEight's scoring system, Republicans in major races have less experience running and winning elections than the Democrats, with a 1.0 experience level compared to the Democrats' 2.5. Republican candidates in Arizona, Colorado, Ohio, and Pennsylvania have never been elected officials. FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver explained that "historically, such candidates have a poor track record — and in 2022 they could cost Republicans key gubernatorial races as well as control of the Senate."

Silver does clarify that the newest poll numbers aren't a reason to count Republicans out of the Senate race, as they still have a shot at winning important states like Georgia. Indeed, historical trends point to the party in the White House losing some of their seats in the midterm elections, so the Republicans might still pull off a congressional sweep. 

To hold onto their slight lead and maintain their majority in the Senate, Democrats will need to "hang onto seats in places like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, or pick up seats in states such as Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania," per the Economist. 

A Republican upset isn't out of the cards

The New York Times' chief political analyst Nate Cohn found that recent Google search trends point to a possible turnaround for Republicans in the final weeks leading up to the midterm elections. While recognizing that Democrat's polling seem to be on an upswing following the Jan. 6 hearings, the abortion debate, and decreasing gas prices, Cohn nevertheless proposed that interest in issues that are advantageous for Democratic candidates is waning.

"For the first time since the Dobbs ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, Google searches for the economy and immigration have overtaken searches about abortion," Cohn explains. "Searches for democracy or the Jan. 6 hearings have also fallen." 

While there doesn't appear to be any distinct changes in current polls favoring the Democrats in the Senate, Cohn suggests that there are subtle clues that voters are shifting their focus back to the issues that boosted Republicans in early polls from the spring, when they had a significant lead. These clues include Biden's consistently low approval ratings and Republicans making "modest gains in a handful of key Senate races, like Wisconsin's." Despite national polls remaining essentially unchanged, state-level polls show Republican candidates in the lead. 

For example, in Georgia, a state that will be a crucial battleground, an Atlanta Journal-Constitution survey conducted between Sep. 5 and Sep. 16 found Republican Herschel Walker had a slight 2-point lead  a shift from the previous poll with incumbent Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock ahead by 4 points.  

Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?

According to FiveThirtyEight's generic congressional ballot estimates, voters are essentially split, with Democrats getting 45.3 percent and Republicans 43.9. The Democrats' lead has increased from 0.4 percentage points since Aug. 22. Morning Consult's midterm tracker likewise shows the Democrats having a 4-point lead in generic congressional polls.

In contrast, Real Clear Politics' congressional polling average sees Republicans ahead of the Democrats, 46 percent to 45, with a spike in national polls favoring Republicans as of late. 

The Post reports that 2 in 3 registered voters see the upcoming midterm elections as more important than past election cycles. The prospect of Republicans grabbing control of Congress from the Democrats in November means that specific issues are influencing the way voters swing. Both parties are poised to have a high voter turnout. Among the registered voters polled, 3 in 4 Democratic voters intend to vote, compared to 8 in 10 Republicans. 

In the battle to control Congress, Democrats are picking up support from independent voters, but the majority are leaning towards Republicans in the most competitive districts. Republicans maintain a narrow 47 percent to 42 percent lead among independent voters, per the Post. 

Inflation, the economy overall, and abortion rights top the list of important issues, per a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted between Sep. 18 and Sep. 21.  Republicans have a 17-point lead among registered voters who trust them to handle the economy and an 18-point edge on trust to manage inflation. Yet Democrats have held with a 17-point lead on confidence to handle abortion.

What do the polls say about the standings of the key races in November?

• Ohio: A Marist poll of Ohio voters conducted between Sep. 12 and Sep. 15 suggests a Republican win in the Ohio Senate race, with J.D. Vance (R) narrowly ahead of opponent Rep. Tim Ryan (D) at 48 percent to 47. 
• Georgia: While the RCP poll average for the state favors Democrats, the project that Georgia is still a potential pick-up for the GOP. Atlanta Journal-Constitution polls conducted between Sep. 5 and Sep. 16  show Herschel Walker (R) at 46 percent, beating incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock's (D) 44 percent. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percent.
• Pennsylvania: A Fox News poll reported that the gap between John Fetterman (D) and Mehmet Oz (R) in the race for Senate was closing as of Sep. 22-26. Fetterman's 11-point lead has dropped to 4, as 48 percent of voters prefer him, and 44 percent lean towards Oz. 
• Arizona: Polls appear to favor a Democrat win in the Senate race in Arizona. Arizona Republic/Suffolk University polls have incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D) with a 7-point lead at 49 percent over ​​Blake Masters' (R) 42 percent.
• Nevada: Nevada voters favor the Republican candidate in their Senate race, but the election seems to be close, with voters almost split between the candidates. Emerson College Polling puts Adam Laxalt (R) at 42 percent over defending Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) at 41 percent, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.