Swanson: Long-distance relationship will test UCLA, USC
What a time to be alive and following college sports.
All the intrigue and upheaval of this moment is making the NBA free agency season register as a minor, did-you-feel-something tremor on the Richter scale.
Still all the major Whoa-Nellie! seismic activity shaking up the college athletics landscape is starting to feel sort of predictable: Because, really, who isn’t out to secure the bag?
For soon-to-be-16-team Big Ten, bringing the L.A. schools aboard in 2024 was a no-brainer, because it helped wrap up the richest TV agreement for a college athletic league, with rights to its competitions earning a reported average of at least $1 billion a year.
Or as the Big Ten announced the news on its website Thursday: “GROUNDBREAKING MEDIA RIGHTS AGREEMENTS PROVIDING FANS UNPRECEDENTED ACCESS AND STUDENT-ATHLETES GREATER EXPOSURE THAN ANY OTHER COLLEGIATE SPORTS CONFERENCE IN HISTORY.”
UCLA and USC will enter that big, bold, all-caps league as full members, gaining immediate access to revenue from that massive new media rights deal, a reported $90 million annually.
Obviously, the Pac-12 stakeholders left behind weren’t going to be pleased. It shouldn’t be a surprise if the UC Regents — if they don’t try to block UCLA’s move outright — try to squeeze something from the school’s coffers for Cal Berkeley, the only other Pac-12 school in the UC system.
“I’m very concerned about off-setting the financial impact to Cal Berkeley,” said Tony Thurmond on Wednesday, when he and the UC’s other regents discussed an interim report that indicated Cal, like the other leftover Pac-12 schools, stands to lose about $13 million per year with UCLA and USC’s departure.
“To make sure whatever new revenue that might be achieved, (we) would envision a scenario to help offset UC Berkeley’s need.”
Does that mean the regents will vote to add regental input to significant athletic agreements like this one? That they’d then want to think about wielding that oversight retroactively?
What’s Newton’s third law? For every action, draw up a play to try to defend it?
Know what else is predictable? In the long run, the move is going hurt UCLA and USC’s on-the-field results.
The travel will be what does it.
Certainly, the UCLA students surveyed for the UC interim report expressed excitement about the move, saying they foresaw benefits to be in league with big-name schools such as Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State.
They’re anticipating increased visibility, which could enhance name, image and likeness opportunities. That, along with the Big Ten’s prestige, should help with recruiting, which should give the Bruins and Trojans a boost in terms of national rankings and postseason opportunities.
The travel though.
On Wednesday, the UC Regents – as is their charge – spent a lot of time fretting over what it will take to maintain the Bruins’ 89% student-athlete graduation rate when those participants will be to traveling 15 to 24 more hours per season?
That felt like a conservative estimate to Thurmond, who grew up in Philadelphia and studied at Temple. He noted that the report focused on trips to Michigan, Ohio and Indiana – and not destinations farther afield, like Maryland or Penn State.
“We should be honest and realistic with ourselves,” Thurmond said. “Even with remote learning, the reality of our student-athletes being able to do anything related to academics when they’re doing this kind of travel, with the time difference and the jet lag and then practicing when they get to the destination … those are difficult circumstances to pull that off.”
And what about the grades on the scoreboard?
Forget the pundits’ jokes about California kids playing football in the snow. UCLA and USC’s athletes are plenty tough, and all things being equal, they’ll acclimate to the conditions. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
It’s not even that UCLA and USC’s athletes are going to have to do more traveling than they have in the past – it’s that they’ll have to do so much more traveling than anyone else in their new high-powered conference.
No, Bruins and Trojans basketball players won’t have 41 away games scheduled per season, but do think about the notion of scheduled losses on the NBA. Poo-poo that if you want, but bettors know teams playing on the second night of a back-to-back set lose more often than they win.
Fatigue is a real thing, even when you’re flying in private jets and staying in five-star hotels and don’t have classes to study for.
Now imagine flying commercial, as most of UCLA’s teams currently do. And note that scientists have proved flying west-to-east is harder on a body’s internal clock than coming this way.
It’ll take Herculean energy and execution from UCLA and USC’s student-athletes to overcome a regular rest disadvantage – and some will. There are going to be some great stories to add to the L.A. schools’ already-impressive lore.
“As I’m hearing the aspirational virtues of moving to the Big Ten for our athletes, I can’t help but try to put it in context,” said Eloy Ortiz Oakley, a regent with Long Beach ties, on Wednesday. “I’m reminded that in the current context, whether it be the Pac-12 or, before that, the Pac-10, UCLA has accomplished 119 national championships. Two hundred and seventy of their athletes have Olympic medals.
“So it’s not like we are going to see a huge increase in the amount of competition going forward, relative to where we’ve been. UCLA has been pretty successful.”
If anything, it’ll go the other way. Over time, the extra travel is going to take its toll. These young athletes are human, after all.
“What is the real value here?” Oakley continued. “Is it just a money play? If so, let’s just focus on the money and let’s not waste any more time on other virtues.”
In that regard, the deal is a big win for UCLA and USC.
On the field, those Ws will be harder to come by.