Marin’s COVID-19 risk level downgraded by federal health officials
Marin has become one of the few counties in the Bay Area to have a key federal metric that rates COVID-19 risk downgraded from high to medium.
The metric, known as “community levels,” is one of two figures the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention uses to help the public assess COVID-19 risk in their communities.
Dr. Matt Willis, Marin County’s public health officer, said the development was reason for optimism, but cautioned against reading too much into the lower rating.
“I think it is too early for us to see this as a trend,” Willis said. “We need more time under our belts before we can really say that this represents a true reduction in risk.”
The CDC downgraded Marin last week, making it the first in the region to reach “medium” status. By Friday, two more Bay Area counties, San Francisco and Sonoma, had joined Marin in the medium column.
The other six Bay Area counties — Contra Costa, Alameda, Solano, San Mateo, Santa Clara and Napa — retained their high “community level” designation. About 42% of counties across the nation remain in the high category.
“The reason that we were reclassified to the medium tier is we dropped below 200 cases on average per 100,000 residents in the last seven days,” Willis said. “We are now at 195.”
There are several reasons why Willis believes it is too early for Marin to begin celebrating. First of all, at 195 cases per 100,000 residents per week, Marin remains very close to the margin. Willis said that transmission rate translates into 70 new COVID-19 cases per day in Marin, which is still high.
With the opening of schools next week likely to spur transmission of the virus, Willis said, “I would not be surprised if we were reclassified as high in the next two weeks.”
Willis said there is also some reason to question the accuracy of the number given that much less testing for the disease is being reported to health authorities because of the predominance of home testing versus lab tests.
He also said that while the number of reported cases in Marin has been declining slightly and consistently over the past two months, “we haven’t really seen a corresponding decline in hospitalizations.”
About eight to 12 people a day are hospitalized with COVID-19 in Marin. On Thursday, 12 people in the county were hospitalized with the virus, including one person requiring intensive care.
“Another sign that we’re not out of the woods by any means,” Willis said, “is that our waste water continues to show high levels of virus. It has plateaued but it hasn’t established a reliable downward trend.”
The CDC uses three indicators to determine community levels: new COVID-19 hospital admissions per 100,000 population in the last seven days; percentage of staffed inpatient beds occupied by patients with COVID-19, averaged over seven days; and new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population in the last seven days.
The other metric that the CDC uses, known as “community transmission,” uses two indicators: new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people in the last seven days; and the percentage of positive SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification tests in the last seven days.
The CDC still judges Marin’s community transmission level to be “high,” because it has more than 100 cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 residents per week.
“For us to move out of that category,” Willis said, “we’d have to have fewer than 35 cases per day in Marin.”
Willis said the most compelling reason for optimism is that it now appears quite likely that the BA.5 subvariant of the omicron strain, which became the dominant variety of COVID-19 in Marin at the beginning of July, is not going to fuel a significant surge in transmissions or hospitalizations.
On Thursday, the CDC relaxed some of its COVID-19 recommendations. It said people who are not up to date on their vaccines and are exposed to COVID-19 no longer need to quarantine at home for five days if exposed to the virus.
The CDC now advises them to take the same precautions as people who are fully vaccinated if exposed: watch for symptoms for 10 days; wear a high-quality mask when around others indoors for 10 days; test after five days; and take extra precautions when around people who are at high risk.
“We’re in a stronger place today as a nation, with more tools — like vaccination, boosters and treatments — to protect ourselves, and our communities, from severe illness from COVID-19,” Greta Massetti, a CDC official, said in a statement accompanying the announcement.
Regarding the other health scourge the county is facing, Willis said seven cases of monkeypox have been confirmed in Marin. None has required hospitalization.
Willis said the county has already dispensed all but about 10 of the 300 doses of monkeypox vaccine it received from the state. The 10 doses are being held in reserve for an emergency. Willis said the county has requested an additional 1,000 doses and should find out soon how many it will be getting.
“We estimate that there are at least 10,000 residents in Marin County who are at risk,” Willis said, “and only a fraction of those individuals have been vaccinated so far.”