Proof Justin Fields’ Numbers Hinge On Luke Getsy’s Running Game
Luke Getsy promised to build his new offense around the strengths of Justin Fields. There is no reason to doubt the man. That is what any intelligent offensive coach would do. However, the essence of Getsy’s system will still hold to its roots. He plans to install the famous Shanahan offense, better known as the wide zone. It is a complex scheme built around getting running backs to the edge and forcing the defense to flow in one direction or another. That opens them up to bootlegs and play action by the quarterback.
People talk about what Fields must do to play better in 2022. All of what they say is true, but few understand how important the running game will be to his success this year. Remember, the Bears finished 14th in rushing last season. Average by league standards. If this offense is to function at its best, that ranking will need to improve. Here is evidence to help illustrate why.
History says Justin Fields will thrive if Getsy pounds the rock.
Jake Plummer’s 2003 passer rating = 91.2
- Broncos rushing attack ranking = 2nd
Matt Schaub 2007 passer rating = 87.2
- Texans rushing attack ranking = 22nd
Donovan McNabb’s 2010 passer rating = 77.1
- Redskins rushing attack ranking = 30th
Robert Griffin III’s 2012 passer rating = 102.4
- Redskins rushing attack ranking = 1st
Joe Flacco’s 2014 passer rating = 91.0
- Ravens rushing attack ranking = 8th
Matt Ryan’s 2015 passer rating = 89.0
- Falcons rushing attack ranking = 19th
Jared Goff’s 2017 passer rating – 100.5
- Rams rushing attack ranking = 8th
Aaron Rodgers’ 2019 passer rating = 95.4
- Packers rushing attack ranking = 15th
There is enough data to correlate the success of this system’s ground attack and the quarterback’s efficiency. Whenever the running game finished in the top 10, the average passer rating for the QB was 96.2. When it ranked outside the top 10, that number fell to an average of 87.17. That is a pretty significant divide. If the Bears can run the ball well this season, Justin Fields should have almost 10 points of efficiency better as a passer. That would take his 73.2 rating as a rookie to 82.23.
This isn’t even accounting for the typical improvement a QB has going from his first year to his second. Put simply, he should experience a significant bump in production if Getsy’s wide zone system functions as it should this year. The good news is he has an excellent backfield to work with. David Montgomery has carried the offense for two years now, and Khalil Herbert was excellent as a rookie last season. They should form a reliable 1-2 punch.
The problem is the offensive line. Three of the five starting spots remain uncertain, and there are questions about the talent level too. This offense relies heavily on the intricate blocking required up front. Any mistakes lead to breakdowns, and breakdowns lead to no running lanes. Protecting Justin Fields might be their priority, but how Getsy gets them to run block could prove just as vital.